@ATLCat  I was just looking at the brackets and I see that PBurg is just sitting out there.  If they were to make it to regionals as it looks right now, would they have to travel to Beechwood for R3?  I think this team could be dangerous especially since they are a running team, for anyone.  I don't know much about them but want to see what everyone else thinks on from the eastern side of the state.  

Have they played a tough schedule or has it been on the weaker side?

@Subway5024 Prestonsburg is ranked 29th in OWP (.459) and 8th in OOWP (.537) and have only played two teams with a winning record this year - Knott Co. Central (7-2; 16th in 2A RPI) and Martin Co. (7-2; 11th in RPI). 

While they certainly have some dark horse potential, especially with RB Kaine Patton and QB Alex Johnson leading the way (both having tremendous seasons), have they developed enough of a passing game to put them in a position in such a game to knock off a perennial powerhouse?

Last year in their RD3 loss to Somerset, they went in 11-1, but fell to the Briar Jumpers, 23-6. Part of the issue in that game - only 21 yards passing on SIX attempts. They've definitely improved in that area this year as Johnson has had some excellent games throwing the ball...but is it enough? Will be interesting to watch. 

20 minutes ago, Subway5024 said:

@ATLCat  I was just looking at the brackets and I see that PBurg is just sitting out there.  If they were to make it to regionals as it looks right now, would they have to travel to Beechwood for R3?  I think this team could be dangerous especially since they are a running team, for anyone.  I don't know much about them but want to see what everyone else thinks on from the eastern side of the state.  

Have they played a tough schedule or has it been on the weaker side?

Poster above did a good job, but my .02.

"Most likely" Pburg should get the 3rd seed in the East. I don't see them losing in Round 2 so they will be in the 3rd Round where they will get whoever finishes lower between Belfry and Beechwood.

I had not watched extensive Pburg action until the other night when they had a truly great and exciting game with Martin County. 

My thoughts on Pburg going into the game:

- Beat up on a really weak schedule

- Going to have some playmakers and good speed at the skill spots but probably undersized on the line.

- Good experience but they haven't played but maybe one or two quality teams.

- Porous defense. They gave up a ton of points to Betsy Layne who is very average on Offense if we are being generous.

 

My thoughts after the game:

- Schedule is still really weak but I saw grit and competitiveness. Martin County out-schemed them and controlled the pace but Pburg was resilient and took the game when it was in doubt.

- They have three guys most every small school in KY would love to have Runyon, Hatfield, and of course Patton. Those guys are ballers and were all over the field. They also all three stepped up with huge plays everytime Pburg needed it.

- Their OLine shocked me with their size. Not an elite blocking team, but they have size and they move well. Not just a bunch of guys with bellies,, they have athletic big linemen.

- Martin County is not a bad team and really impressed me from when I had seen them before. This qas a quality win on the road for Pburg. They still have not seen anything remotely close to what the top 5 teams in 2A bring to the table. I used this analogy elsewhere, but that Martin County game was the equivalent of an early undercard fight on a UFC card where two young fighters go toe to toe landing haymakers. It is the best fight of the night and lots of fun... but if those guys fought one of the best fighters in their weight class they would be outclassed and instead of going toe to toe they would probably be pounded on the mat.

- The defense has playmakers but they are really going to struggle to keep any of the top 5 from scoring at will.

29 minutes ago, ATLCat said:

Poster above did a good job, but my .02.

"Most likely" Pburg should get the 3rd seed in the East. I don't see them losing in Round 2 so they will be in the 3rd Round where they will get whoever finishes lower between Belfry and Beechwood.

I had not watched extensive Pburg action until the other night when they had a truly great and exciting game with Martin County. 

My thoughts on Pburg going into the game:

- Beat up on a really weak schedule

- Going to have some playmakers and good speed at the skill spots but probably undersized on the line.

- Good experience but they haven't played but maybe one or two quality teams.

- Porous defense. They gave up a ton of points to Betsy Layne who is very average on Offense if we are being generous.

 

My thoughts after the game:

- Schedule is still really weak but I saw grit and competitiveness. Martin County out-schemed them and controlled the pace but Pburg was resilient and took the game when it was in doubt.

- They have three guys most every small school in KY would love to have Runyon, Hatfield, and of course Patton. Those guys are ballers and were all over the field. They also all three stepped up with huge plays everytime Pburg needed it.

- Their OLine shocked me with their size. Not an elite blocking team, but they have size and they move well. Not just a bunch of guys with bellies,, they have athletic big linemen.

- Martin County is not a bad team and really impressed me from when I had seen them before. This qas a quality win on the road for Pburg. They still have not seen anything remotely close to what the top 5 teams in 2A bring to the table. I used this analogy elsewhere, but that Martin County game was the equivalent of an early undercard fight on a UFC card where two young fighters go toe to toe landing haymakers. It is the best fight of the night and lots of fun... but if those guys fought one of the best fighters in their weight class they would be outclassed and instead of going toe to toe they would probably be pounded on the mat.

- The defense has playmakers but they are really going to struggle to keep any of the top 5 from scoring at will.

Thank you very much.  Very knowledgeable and I appreciate your feedback and take on them.

47 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

@Subway5024 Prestonsburg is ranked 29th in OWP (.459) and 8th in OOWP (.537) and have only played two teams with a winning record this year - Knott Co. Central (7-2; 16th in 2A RPI) and Martin Co. (7-2; 11th in RPI). 

While they certainly have some dark horse potential, especially with RB Kaine Patton and QB Alex Johnson leading the way (both having tremendous seasons), have they developed enough of a passing game to put them in a position in such a game to knock off a perennial powerhouse?

Last year in their RD3 loss to Somerset, they went in 11-1, but fell to the Briar Jumpers, 23-6. Part of the issue in that game - only 21 yards passing on SIX attempts. They've definitely improved in that area this year as Johnson has had some excellent games throwing the ball...but is it enough? Will be interesting to watch. 

Thank you for your take on them also.

My head hurts reading all the scenarios, But much appreciation @ATLCat.

 IMO…. Beechwood’s Team and Fans have accepted how bad the RPI is set up and regardless what it spins out Beechwood is ready to get on the road and play the top rated RPI teams.  Yes, not having home feild advantage stinks, but just motivates Beechwood.  After all, they are just a bunch of athletes that run track.  Let’s Go!

4 minutes ago, The_Bull44 said:

My head hurts reading all the scenarios, But much appreciation @ATLCat.

 IMO…. Beechwood’s Team and Fans have accepted how bad the RPI is set up and regardless what it spins out Beechwood is ready to get on the road and play the top rated RPI teams.  Yes, not having home feild advantage stinks, but just motivates Beechwood.  After all, they are just a bunch of athletes that run track.  Let’s Go!

Yeah, Beechwood should be #1 or #2 or maybe #3. This RPI is a joke. I understand the concept but this fails on so many levels. 

I just think the RPI could very easily be tweaked and improved. Just account better for out of state competition and then give a very basic "strength of result" component where it is so basic it doesn't allow initiative to run up a score. You do those two basic things and it goes from a flawed system to at least a functional system.

You make that tweak to the RPI and then require neutral sites for the Semi-Finals and this system is immediately much better.

No team in KY should have to travel 5 hours for a playoff game simply because a computer formula suggests one team is a tenth of a point better with no direct head to head comparison.

1 minute ago, ATLCat said:

I just think the RPI could very easily be tweaked and improved. Just account better for out of state competition and then give a very basic "strength of result" component where it is so basic it doesn't allow initiative to run up a score. You do those two basic things and it goes from a flawed system to at least a functional system.

You make that tweak to the RPI and then require neutral sites for the Semi-Finals and this system is immediately much better.

No team in KY should have to travel 5 hours for a playoff game simply because a computer formula suggests one team is a tenth of a point better with no direct head to head comparison.

I agree it needs to be tweaked but one other area is there has to be something that accounts for teams that play  5 district games and those who only play 3. It’s unfair that teams get extra RPI boosting games where as a team that has a bunch of District opponents (and not very good district opponents at that) that kill their RPI. I agree on the out of state opponents being changed as well because then it opens up more options for the better teams to find better teams to play. 

2 minutes ago, BWTigers said:

I agree it needs to be tweaked but one other area is there has to be something that accounts for teams that play  5 district games and those who only play 3. It’s unfair that teams get extra RPI boosting games where as a team that has a bunch of District opponents (and not very good district opponents at that) that kill their RPI. I agree on the out of state opponents being changed as well because then it opens up more options for the better teams to find better teams to play. 

I agree on the District thing as well.

I think I proposed a few pages back that my way to solve this would be that every team has to carry thee district results. If you lose then every district loss must be carried. For undefeated teams you carry your top three District results. For teams in a 5 team district that are undefeated you can replace your lowest district result with either replicating your lowest non-district score (could be a loss) or duplicating your second best District win. For teams in six team Districts you can repeat this process for your two lowest scores.

In other words, if you are Beechwood you can drop Owen County and Gallatin County and then choose to either replace them with the Walton-Verona win or let's say their loss to CovCath is the the lowest non-district result but the value of that result is better than the W-V result then they could use that instead.

 

16 hours ago, ATLCat said:

I just think the RPI could very easily be tweaked and improved. Just account better for out of state competition and then give a very basic "strength of result" component where it is so basic it doesn't allow initiative to run up a score. You do those two basic things and it goes from a flawed system to at least a functional system.

You make that tweak to the RPI and then require neutral sites for the Semi-Finals and this system is immediately much better.

No team in KY should have to travel 5 hours for a playoff game simply because a computer formula suggests one team is a tenth of a point better with no direct head to head comparison.

I agree. 

How are second round matchups confirmed? That one still confuses me?

For example: District 5-6 given the following hypothetical...who plays who in RD2?

Beechwood advances with BYE (Jackson Co. WD)

Bracken Co. over W. Carter 

Walton Verona over Morgan Co.

Breathitt over St. Henry  

2 hours ago, BrosefStalin said:

How are second round matchups confirmed? That one still confuses me?

For example: District 5-6 given the following hypothetical...who plays who in RD2?

Beechwood advances with BYE (Jackson Co. WD)

Bracken Co. over W. Carter 

Walton Verona over Morgan Co.

Breathitt over St. Henry  

Rounds 1 and 2 are still against the partner district. There is no RPI component the first two rounds.

Good ole 1 seed vs 4 seed and 2 seed vs 3 seed.

Beechwood will get the winner of the opposing District’s 2 vs. Beechwood’s  3.

12 hours ago, ATLCat said:

Beechwood will get the winner of the opposing District’s 2 vs. Beechwood’s  3.

Question about Beechwood, by extension:

• There are two games this Saturday night. One is Trimble County at Dayton, which should be close and conceivably a Dayton win. Dayton played Newport Catholic, who played Beechwood (Opponents' Opponent). Could the RPI numbers change on Saturday night because of one game? Should people be aware that the 2A RPI won't be final at midnight tonight?

2 hours ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Question about Beechwood, by extension:

• There are two games this Saturday night. One is Trimble County at Dayton, which should be close and conceivably a Dayton win. Dayton played Newport Catholic, who played Beechwood (Opponents' Opponent). Could the RPI numbers change on Saturday night because of one game? Should people be aware that the 2A RPI won't be final at midnight tonight?

It definitely will move the RPI but it will be extremely minimal impact.

If anyone looked this morning as predicted Beechwood has inched ahead of Belfry after last night by a whopping .00445 points but still trail Mayfield by .00903 with most of Beechwood's heavy lifting done. 

Entering tonight Mayfield leads Belfry by .01348.

Belfry and Mayfield's heavy lifting is left to do tonight. Simply put, if either team loses (not likely) then they will fall behind the other two. I don't see a path where Beechwood passes Mayfield at this point outside of Mayfield losing. Mayfield has too many teams playing each other that Mayfield has already played. Ultimately, Belfry and Mayfield's District foes both have key games that could make an impact. It's almost mirror image situations.

Crittenden and Todd Central have winnable 3A games, Pike Central has a winnable 3A game and Betsy Layne plays a winnable 2A game. I don't see Shelby Valley beating 5A Harlan County, East Ridge should win but they are playing a bad 1A Harlan Independent team so don't expect any help from that result, I don't expect Caldwell to beat Murray.

If Belfry beats a 3A LCC team with a solid RPI and Pikeville beats Bracken County I expect Belfry to pull ahead of Beechwood. 

If Mayfield wins against 3A Central and McCracken County defeats Graves County it will be tough for Belfry to pass Mayfield (but it will be very, very close).  Belfry will gain more beating LCC than Mayfield gains beating Central, but that 6A win over McCracken keeps acting as Mayfield's sail. 

Long story short, I don't think Belfry passes Mayfield unless Belfry gets unexpected help from their district mates winning while Mayfield's lose.. or East Carter has to pull an unexpected upset.

If Pikeville beats Bracken County I don't think Beechwood can finish ahead of Belfry, let alone Mayfield.