@ATLCat Do you think OCath and LCA are now a lock at the #1 and #2, or is there any chance this could change? 

BTW, thank you so much for your insight into the 2A RPI. This has been a very insightful post for the last couple of weeks.

3 hours ago, ATLCat said:

If Pikeville beats Bracken County I don't think Beechwood can finish ahead of Belfry, let alone Mayfield.

This game is a .004 swing in RPI. 

If Pikeville wins, Belfry gains .002 and Beechwood loses .002. If Bracken County wins, Beechwood gains .002 and Belfry loses. 002.

Minimal impact to the numbers but big impact because it is so close.

The other thing that I will add, the more important numbers to watch are Mayfield. 2A is pretty well set unless Mayfield loses and Beechwood or Belfry passes them in RPI. Even that isn't a factor unless Mayfield beats LCA.

3 hours ago, Cobraxx said:

@ATLCat Do you think OCath and LCA are now a lock at the #1 and #2, or is there any chance this could change? 

BTW, thank you so much for your insight into the 2A RPI. This has been a very insightful post for the last couple of weeks.

If LCA beats PRP, they are #2. I don’t see anyone catching them. The 6A bonus for beating PRP should lock LCA in at #2.

30 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

If LCA beats PRP, they are #2. I don’t see anyone catching them. The 6A bonus for beating PRP should lock LCA in at #2.

They already beat them last night.

Anyone else in agreeance that it appears - regardless of if Belfry wins tonight over Letcher CC and Gunner Holbrook - that 1 (OC), 2 (LCA), and 3 (Mayfield) are locked up and the only drama tonight is the possibility of Belfy passing Beechwood and Prestonsburg maybe getting passed by Somerset if they lose to Estill and don't get any variable help (OWP & OOWP) and Somerset beats Hazard and gets variable help?

BELFRY OPPONENENTS PLAYING TONIGHT - East Carter vs Raceland (win?), Central vs. Mayfield (loss?), Pikeville vs. Bracken Co. (win), Pike Country Central vs. Powell Co. (loss?), East Ridge vs. Harlan (win?), Betsy Layne vs. Leslie Co. (win maybe?), Shelby Valley vs. Harlan Co. (loss?)

So if Belfry wins and gets four wins, they could potentially pass Beechwood...if they lose, do they need a 5/6 wins from the teams above to get them ahead of the Tigers?

1 hour ago, BrosefStalin said:

Anyone else in agreeance that it appears - regardless of if Belfry wins tonight over Letcher CC and Gunner Holbrook - that 1 (OC), 2 (LCA), and 3 (Mayfield) are locked up and the only drama tonight is the possibility of Belfy passing Beechwood and Prestonsburg maybe getting passed by Somerset if they lose to Estill and don't get any variable help (OWP & OOWP) and Somerset beats Hazard and gets variable help?

BELFRY OPPONENENTS PLAYING TONIGHT - East Carter vs Raceland (win?), Central vs. Mayfield (loss?), Pikeville vs. Bracken Co. (win), Pike Country Central vs. Powell Co. (loss?), East Ridge vs. Harlan (win?), Betsy Layne vs. Leslie Co. (win maybe?), Shelby Valley vs. Harlan Co. (loss?)

So if Belfry wins and gets four wins, they could potentially pass Beechwood...if they lose, do they need a 5/6 wins from the teams above to get them ahead of the Tigers?

If Belfry wins, I expect them to pass Beechwood.

1 minute ago, Voice of Reason said:

If Belfry wins, I expect them to pass Beechwood.

Belfry is going to win by a RC.

We will see if this holds in the morning but Belfry moved into the 3 spot.

 

 

1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	9	-	1			10	1.20112	.59259	.58658	.80377
2	Lexington Christian	2A	4	7	-	3			10	.86476	.77026	.55240	.73798
3	Belfry	2A	8	9	-	1			10	.99704	.55027	.58460	.71694
4	Mayfield	2A	1	8	-	1			9	1.11316	.47368	.52510	.71292
5	Beechwood	2A	5	9	-	1			10	1.10184	.48031	.50144	.70418
6	Danville	2A	4	8	-	2			10	.97903	.51015	.54855	.68578
7	Somerset	2A	3	8	-	1			9	.96340	.50599	.54408	.67751
8	Prestonsburg	2A	7	9	-	0			9	1.00000	.47484	.53530	.67678
9	Breathitt County	2A	6	8	-	2			10	.91203	.54958	.51316	.66551
10	Monroe County	2A	3	7	-	3			10	.86857	.54492	.52902	.65343
11	Martin County	2A	7	8	-	2			10	.81499	.53954	.51817	.62954
12	Hancock County	2A	2	7	-	3			10	.76443	.55685	.53238	.62216
13	Green County	2A	3	7	-	3			10	.83149	.46679	.50121	.60476
14	Bracken County	2A	5	6	-	3			9	.70246	.55013	.47842	.58193
15	Washington County	2A	4	5	-	4			9	.64921	.53054	.54052	.57506
16	Knott County Central	2A	7	7	-	2			9	.75068	.45471	.49279	.56972
17	Caldwell County	2A	1	6	-	4			10	.68205	.48968	.48722	.55627
18	WEB DuBois	2A	4	4	-	5			9	.49690	.61370	.54008	.55073
19	Crittenden County	2A	1	6	-	3			9	.68332	.44637	.49659	.54437
20	McLean County	2A	2	4	-	5			9	.51896	.48695	.46429	.49135
21	Shelby Valley	2A	8	4	-	6			10	.40000	.56135	.51384	.49062
22	Metcalfe County	2A	3	3	-	7			10	.32998	.60382	.50423	.47810
23	Betsy Layne	2A	8	4	-	6			10	.40000	.52483	.51145	.47712
24	Fort Campbell	2A	1	4	-	6			10	.41499	.49327	.48394	.46307
25	Fort Knox	2A	2	3	-	7			10	.38429	.51999	.46359	.45558
26	West Carter	2A	6	4	-	6			10	.44721	.42655	.45925	.44359
27	Shawnee	2A	4	3	-	7			10	.36706	.43600	.51509	.43560
28	East Ridge	2A	8	3	-	7			10	.30000	.51522	.49790	.43470
29	Pike County Central	2A	8	3	-	7			10	.31499	.45947	.51868	.42666
30	Leslie County	2A	7	2	-	8			10	.20000	.56242	.51896	.42254
31	Walton-Verona	2A	5	4	-	6			10	.40000	.39214	.47275	.41907
32	Morgan County	2A	6	4	-	6			10	.41499	.34944	.48719	.41371
33	Trigg County	2A	1	2	-	7			9	.22222	.50276	.45647	.39069
34	St. Henry	2A	5	2	-	8			10	.20000	.51282	.44897	.38418
35	Clinton County	2A	3	1	-	8			9	.12777	.48889	.50203	.36644
36	Owen County	2A	5	2	-	7			9	.23888	.37333	.45862	.35186
37	Gallatin County	2A	5	2	-	8			10	.20000	.41004	.45796	.35090
38	Floyd Central	2A	7	1	-	9			10	.11499	.48596	.46558	.35000
39	Todd County Central	2A	1	1	-	9			10	.10000	.38147	.45969	.30642
40	Jackson County	2A	6	1	-	9			10	.08698	.39778	.43285	.29952

7 minutes ago, theguru said:

1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	9	-	1			10	1.20112	.59259	.58658	.80377
2	Lexington Christian	2A	4	7	-	3			10	.86476	.77026	.55240	.73798
3	Belfry	2A	8	9	-	1			10	.99704	.55027	.58460	.71694
4	Mayfield	2A	1	8	-	1			9	1.11316	.47368	.52510	.71292
5	Beechwood	2A	5	9	-	1			10	1.10184	.48031	.50144	.70418
6	Danville	2A	4	8	-	2			10	.97903	.51015	.54855	.68578
7	Somerset	2A	3	8	-	1			9	.96340	.50599	.54408	.67751
8	Prestonsburg	2A	7	9	-	0			9	1.00000	.47484	.53530	.67678
9	Breathitt County	2A	6	8	-	2			10	.91203	.54958	.51316	.66551
10	Monroe County	2A	3	7	-	3			10	.86857	.54492	.52902	.65343
11	Martin County	2A	7	8	-	2			10	.81499	.53954	.51817	.62954
12	Hancock County	2A	2	7	-	3			10	.76443	.55685	.53238	.62216
13	Green County	2A	3	7	-	3			10	.83149	.46679	.50121	.60476
14	Bracken County	2A	5	6	-	3			9	.70246	.55013	.47842	.58193
15	Washington County	2A	4	5	-	4			9	.64921	.53054	.54052	.57506
16	Knott County Central	2A	7	7	-	2			9	.75068	.45471	.49279	.56972
17	Caldwell County	2A	1	6	-	4			10	.68205	.48968	.48722	.55627
18	WEB DuBois	2A	4	4	-	5			9	.49690	.61370	.54008	.55073
19	Crittenden County	2A	1	6	-	3			9	.68332	.44637	.49659	.54437
20	McLean County	2A	2	4	-	5			9	.51896	.48695	.46429	.49135
21	Shelby Valley	2A	8	4	-	6			10	.40000	.56135	.51384	.49062
22	Metcalfe County	2A	3	3	-	7			10	.32998	.60382	.50423	.47810
23	Betsy Layne	2A	8	4	-	6			10	.40000	.52483	.51145	.47712
24	Fort Campbell	2A	1	4	-	6			10	.41499	.49327	.48394	.46307
25	Fort Knox	2A	2	3	-	7			10	.38429	.51999	.46359	.45558
26	West Carter	2A	6	4	-	6			10	.44721	.42655	.45925	.44359
27	Shawnee	2A	4	3	-	7			10	.36706	.43600	.51509	.43560
28	East Ridge	2A	8	3	-	7			10	.30000	.51522	.49790	.43470
29	Pike County Central	2A	8	3	-	7			10	.31499	.45947	.51868	.42666
30	Leslie County	2A	7	2	-	8			10	.20000	.56242	.51896	.42254
31	Walton-Verona	2A	5	4	-	6			10	.40000	.39214	.47275	.41907
32	Morgan County	2A	6	4	-	6			10	.41499	.34944	.48719	.41371
33	Trigg County	2A	1	2	-	7			9	.22222	.50276	.45647	.39069
34	St. Henry	2A	5	2	-	8			10	.20000	.51282	.44897	.38418
35	Clinton County	2A	3	1	-	8			9	.12777	.48889	.50203	.36644
36	Owen County	2A	5	2	-	7			9	.23888	.37333	.45862	.35186
37	Gallatin County	2A	5	2	-	8			10	.20000	.41004	.45796	.35090
38	Floyd Central	2A	7	1	-	9			10	.11499	.48596	.46558	.35000
39	Todd County Central	2A	1	1	-	9			10	.10000	.38147	.45969	.30642
40	Jackson County	2A	6	1	-	9			10	.08698	.39778	.43285	.29952

Mayfield's game against Central is not factored in yet. As I look closer, there are several key games not included. This isn't final. But we do know that Belfry went past Beechwood with their win, as expected.

 

Edited November 1, 2025Nov 1 by Voice of Reason

Beechwood at 5 is crazy with 1 loss to Cov Cath. Does their district kill their RPI that bad?

3 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Mayfield's game against Central is not factored in yet. As I look closer, there are several key games not included. This isn't final. But we do know that Belfry went past Beechwood with their win, as expected.

 

Right, that is as of 11pm on 10-31-25.

6 minutes ago, Honey Badger said:

Beechwood at 5 is crazy with 1 loss to Cov Cath. Does their district kill their RPI that bad?

The thing that hurts district wise is the 6 team district. That keeps Beechwood from scheduling another tough opponent game that could boost RPI. 

This year, the big schools Beechwood did beat having sub .500 seasons also hurt.

Finally, as much as I like having the rivalry game with New Cath back on the schedule, it is not a good RPI game for Beechwood.

Edited November 1, 2025Nov 1 by Voice of Reason

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

The thing that hurts district wise is the 6 team district. That keeps Beechwood from scheduling another tough opponent game. 

This year, the big schools Beechwood did beat having sub .500 seasons also hurt.

Finally, as much as I like having the rivalry game with New Cath back on the schedule, it is not a good RPI game for Beechwood.

You hit it all on the nose. KHSAA is doing Beechwood a huge disservice.

2 minutes ago, Honey Badger said:

You hit it all on the nose. KHSAA is doing Beechwood a huge disservice.

It will be kind of cool being the first game at New Cath's new football field next season, if the schedule lines up the same way next year.