Coronavirus Quarantine vs. Influenza Quarantine

[rjs4470]

I am pointing out the flu is very deadly and we don't do anything about it, zero.

 

That’s not a true statement. We have a vaccine, that has a campaign every year that recommends that everyone get. We’ve got several proven therapeutic solutions that work. We’ve also got years of experience in treating it. We don’t have any of that for CV and it’s way more infectious, and has become a leading cause of death in only 2 months, and on an annualized basis 3-4x more deadly than the flu.

[theguru]

That’s not a true statement. We have a vaccine, that has a campaign every year that recommends that everyone get. We’ve got several proven therapeutic solutions that work. We’ve also got years of experience in treating it. We don’t have any of that for CV and it’s way more infectious, and has become a leading cause of death in only 2 months, and on an annualized basis 3-4x more deadly than the flu.

 

I meant in the context of a quarantine.

[catholicdude]

I am going to assume as of March 7th that is correct.

 

Either way it doesn't matter for purposes of the larger discussion. Look at Italy, two deaths of minors from coronavirus.

 

Moving forward, I am sure there are in fact some minor deaths and anyone that finds them please post the numbers but the point is minors are mostly immune from death due to COVID19.

 

 

I replied in the football thread but I'll put it here also. This article shows a little difference in the statistics of deaths for children. It shows 3 deaths in the Under 14 age group and 21 deaths in the 14-24 age group. These numbers are also only the ones that have been coded so the total number of deaths in this report is only 23,000. Since that is less than half the number of total deaths right now, it would make sense that all the numbers in that report are probably about double of what it states.

 

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[theguru]

I replied in the football thread but I'll put it here also. This article shows a little difference in the statistics of deaths for children. It shows 3 deaths in the Under 14 age group and 21 deaths in the 14-24 age group. These numbers are also only the ones that have been coded so the total number of deaths in this report is only 23,000. Since that is less than half the number of total deaths right now, it would make sense that all the numbers in that report are probably about double of what it states.

 

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

 

Thanks @catholicdude and I will put my response here too.

 

Unfortunately that breakdown includes the 18 to 24 deaths vs. the 17 and under stats I have been looking at. In other words, we need a more precise breakdown.

 

And I want to add again here, only two minor deaths reported in Italy and as of about a week ago three deaths in New York for minors 17 and under.

[catholicdude]

I agree, those numbers don't give the full picture for what we are looking for as far as deaths in High School aged kids. Unfortunately I can't find anything that breaks it out better. I guess I would add that if there were 3 deaths 3 weeks ago, it would makes sense that there would be about 21 now since the number of total deaths now is about 7 times what it was on April 2nd.

[theguru]

This is pretty interesting when you actually get to see every state side by side. I assume this is pretty accurate. According to the CDC the 2018 Flu Deaths are accurate and the COVID-19 Deaths are easily searchable.

 

 

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

 

This is a repeat from my opening post on 3-17-20 in this thread so given all this information, why haven't we been quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for influenza? Also, for all of you that believe quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for coronavirus is the right thing to do, will you be demanding we shut down for influenza from now on? If not, why?

[Voice of Reason]

This is pretty interesting when you actually get to see every state side by side. I assume this is pretty accurate. According to the CDC the 2018 Flu Deaths are accurate and the COVID-19 Deaths are easily searchable.

 

[ATTACH]70356[/ATTACH]

 

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

 

This is a repeat from my opening post on 3-17-20 in this thread so given all this information, why haven't we been quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for influenza? Also, for all of you that believe quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for coronavirus is the right thing to do, will you be demanding we shut down for influenza from now on? If not, why?

 

What do the CV19 numbers look like with no shutdown?

[JDEaston]

That’s not a true statement. We have a vaccine, that has a campaign every year that recommends that everyone get. We’ve got several proven therapeutic solutions that work. We’ve also got years of experience in treating it. We don’t have any of that for CV and it’s way more infectious, and has become a leading cause of death in only 2 months, and on an annualized basis 3-4x more deadly than the flu.

 

My take from that is that if you take away the flu vaccine and years of experience in learning how to treat it, compared to none of that with covid-19 they may actually be more equal than we are assuming. In other words if we had experience as well as a vaccine for this virus, it would likely look very similar to the flu that we deal with every year, as far as numbers go.

[JDEaston]

What do the CV19 numbers look like with no shutdown?

 

What would the flu numbers look like with no vaccine or no known working treatment? Obviously we're at the point of treatments being available now but its kinda been a trial and error thing, where as we have known how to treat the flu for years and a lot of people get vaccinated for it.

[Bluegrasscard]

This is pretty interesting when you actually get to see every state side by side. I assume this is pretty accurate. According to the CDC the 2018 Flu Deaths are accurate and the COVID-19 Deaths are easily searchable.

 

 

 

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

 

This is a repeat from my opening post on 3-17-20 in this thread so given all this information, why haven't we been quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for influenza? Also, for all of you that believe quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for coronavirus is the right thing to do, will you be demanding we shut down for influenza from now on? If not, why?

 

So much for statistical correlation.

 

NY - 500% increase in COVID over FLU

WY - less that 5% (1/20th) COVID vs FLU

 

And everything in between. Though NY is in class by itself by a long shot. Obviously this is mostly NYC area. Eyeballing it looks like the bulk of the states were 20% COVID vs. FLU. Kentucky fits this.

 

The lack of correlation and the extremes - both high and low extremes is why there is so much inherent FUD with this whole situation. If you are in NYC this is a crisis and it will likely eventually touch everyone living there sooner rather than later. If you are in Wyoming - this is a complete non-event.

 

I think the NYC situation has obviously driven policy making in the majority of the country, though it clearly is highly unique. The majority of states would have done fine with less extreme "curve-flattening" policies that are likely killing far more people than the policies "saved".

[theguru]

What do the CV19 numbers look like with no shutdown?

 

I suppose we could look at some states that were the least restrictive and maybe Sweden and that should give us some idea.

[theguru]

My take from that is that if you take away the flu vaccine and years of experience in learning how to treat it, compared to none of that with covid-19 they may actually be more equal than we are assuming. In other words if we had experience as well as a vaccine for this virus, it would likely look very similar to the flu that we deal with every year, as far as numbers go.

 

I agree with you. The flu and cv19 are probably very similar in a vacuum and both very deadly.

[theguru]

So much for statistical correlation.

 

NY - 500% increase in COVID over FLU

WY - less that 5% (1/20th) COVID vs FLU

 

And everything in between. Though NY is in class by itself by a long shot. Obviously this is mostly NYC area. Eyeballing it looks like the bulk of the states were 20% COVID vs. FLU. Kentucky fits this.

 

The lack of correlation and the extremes - both high and low extremes is why there is so much inherent FUD with this whole situation. If you are in NYC this is a crisis and it will likely eventually touch everyone living there sooner rather than later. If you are in Wyoming - this is a complete non-event.

 

I think the NYC situation has obviously driven policy making in the majority of the country, though it clearly is highly unique. The majority of states would have done fine with less extreme "curve-flattening" policies that are likely killing far more people than the policies "saved".

 

I agree and hope that one day we get the real statistics on all the collateral damage deaths but with the "book cooking" going on I doubt we ever know with any certainty.

[Bluegrasscard]

Here is an interesting chart that makes you go hmmmm....

 

 

Source:

 

Ohio Flu Activity

 

So in mid-February you were in a flu-season that was statistically tracking a full 200% worse than the 5-year average. In a mere 4 weeks you are now tracking at the 5-year average Two weeks later you are tracking at only a third (33%) of the 5-year average. A week later only 25% of the 5-year average and now - basically flu season has ended 4 weeks early when compared to the 5-year average.

[theguru]

Here is an interesting chart that makes you go hmmmm....

 

[ATTACH]70357[/ATTACH]

 

Source:

 

Ohio Flu Activity

 

So in mid-February you were in a flu-season that was statistically tracking a full 200% worse than the 5-year average. In a mere 4 weeks you are now tracking at the 5-year average Two weeks later you are tracking at only a third (33%) of the 5-year average. A week later only 25% of the 5-year average and now - basically flu season has ended 4 weeks early when compared to the 5-year average.

 

It is systematic corruption, most of the flu deaths are being reported as covid deaths.

 

I saw another example of this a couple of nights ago that boggled my mind it was so blatant.