Here are the numbers that should cause you to rethink overreaction. COVID-19 is 3 times more contagious than the flu and at least 6 times more deadly. If the same number of people got COVID-19 as got the flu, the conservative estimated result would be about 200,000 deaths. But 3 times as many people would get infected so now we are looking at over 600,000 deaths. Those are the very conservative estimates. Italy is currently higher at about an 8% death rate.

 

I hope those estimates are wrong, but I don't think we will ever know because the majority of cases will go undiagnosed and therefore not a part of the statistical matrix.

 

I just want to know where the line in the quarantine sand is for everyone, at what point do we shut everything down. We already know that 34 thousand deaths a year in America is not enough.

I hope those estimates are wrong, but I don't think we will ever know because the majority of cases will go undiagnosed and therefore not a part of the statistical matrix.

 

I just want to know where the line in the quarantine sand is for everyone, at what point do we shut everything down. We already know that 34 thousand deaths a year in America is not enough.

 

Most of us have moved beyond looking at this strictly from a deaths standpoint.

Most of us have moved beyond looking at this strictly from a deaths standpoint.

 

Right, welcome to the world of inconsistency and ambiguity!

Right, welcome to the world of inconsistency and ambiguity!

 

...or the world of caution and compassion.

...or the world of caution and compassion.

 

Now we are getting somewhere, where is the caution and compassion when it comes to the hundreds of thousands killed globally each year from influenza?

Now we are getting somewhere, where is the caution and compassion when it comes to the hundreds of thousands killed globally each year from influenza?

 

When you address the number of cases of the flu and those percentages as it relates to COVID-19, I'll entertain your question.

When you address the number of cases of the flu and those percentages as it relates to COVID-19, I'll entertain your question.

 

It is not a competition Deuce, they are both horrible killers.

 

The shutdown is a line in the sand.

It is not a competition Deuce, they are both horrible killers.

 

The shutdown is a line in the sand.

 

You can't ignore the differences in the two viruses and then ask people to explain why we are reacting differently. You already have the answer.

You can't ignore the differences in the two viruses and then ask people to explain why we are reacting differently. You already have the answer.

 

Killed by a gun, killed by a knife, what difference does it make if it is a gun or a knife.

I hope those estimates are wrong, but I don't think we will ever know because the majority of cases will go undiagnosed and therefore not a part of the statistical matrix.

 

I just want to know where the line in the quarantine sand is for everyone, at what point do we shut everything down. We already know that 34 thousand deaths a year in America is not enough.

 

Apparently it takes no deaths to create any panic. The only known Kentucky fatality had serious "other issues" (like maybe a massive stroke). But they had a coronavirus. So many people supposedly test positive and have zero symptoms (well that makes them even MORE dangerous according to the narrative.).

 

Maybe this is just another variant of coronovirus. Conoviruses are not in any way new. And they probably saw this one coming as far back as 2015 - when there are published reports of a Coronovirus in bats that was ready to "make the jump".

 

Around 10% of people who have "flu-like symptoms" have a coronovirus. That is true this year, it was true last year and the years before that. But now we have new tests. And they want to run a test on anyone with a sniffle now. So yes, they will find that a lot of people who have a coronovirus and maybe the novel COVID-19.

 

Thus far, the datapoints in our state and in the country do not stand up to the reaction. Maybe that will change. But as of now the case for the extreme actions is not in the numbers.

 

The line from The Big Short by Brad Pitt starts to come into play here. "For every 1% rise in the unemployment rate, 40,000 people die." That statement is based in fact. And certainly we are headed for at least a 2% rise in unemployment if not more. Thus, basically there an acceptance that its OK for at least 80,000 to die. Even if at the end we save a few thousand.

 

The point is this radical social distancing that drives unemployment will have a price and its not a small price in terms of real lives either.

Killed by a gun, killed by a knife, what difference does it make if it is a gun or a knife.

 

So that's the logic you're working with?

 

Have a nice day. :lol2:

Apparently it takes no deaths to create any panic. The only known Kentucky fatality had serious "other issues" (like maybe a massive stroke). But they had a coronavirus. So many people supposedly test positive and have zero symptoms (well that makes them even MORE dangerous according to the narrative.).

 

Maybe this is just another variant of coronovirus. Conoviruses are not in any way new. And they probably saw this one coming as far back as 2015 - when there are published reports of a Coronovirus in bats that was ready to "make the jump".

 

Around 10% of people who have "flu-like symptoms" have a coronovirus. That is true this year, it was true last year and the years before that. But now we have new tests. And they want to run a test on anyone with a sniffle now. So yes, they will find that a lot of people who have a coronovirus and maybe the novel COVID-19.

 

Thus far, the datapoints in our state and in the country do not stand up to the reaction. Maybe that will change. But as of now the case for the extreme actions is not in the numbers.

 

The line from The Big Short by Brad Pitt starts to come into play here. "For every 1% rise in the unemployment rate, 40,000 people die." That statement is based in fact. And certainly we are headed for at least a 2% rise in unemployment if not more. Thus, basically there an acceptance that its OK for at least 80,000 to die. Even if at the end we save a few thousand.

 

The point is this radical social distancing that drives unemployment will have a price and its not a small price in terms of real lives either.

 

Kentucky numbers mean nothing since we have numbers from around the world to use in making decisions. Let's hope and pray that a couple weeks out the numbers are still low. If that happens, we move back to normal and everyone just had a two week "holiday". That would be a extremely minor hit to unemployment.

Kentucky numbers mean nothing since we have numbers from around the world to use in making decisions. Let's hope and pray that a couple weeks out the numbers are still low. If that happens, we move back to normal and everyone just had a two week "holiday". That would be a extremely minor hit to unemployment.

 

Does anyone reading this really think it is going to be only a two week holiday?

 

It is looking more like an eight week minimum shutdown, right?

So that's the logic you're working with?

 

Have a nice day. :lol2:

 

My logic is death is the ultimate metric. :thumb:

 

Seriously, have a good day too Deuce, I have to get to the gym while I still can.

The state of NY says they will need 18K ventilators soon and that they are far short of having them. Each state is going to go through this at some point. All signs are pointing to systemic failure throughout the country.

 

When the flu can make that happen then I’ll happily quarantine for that too.