March 17, 20206 yr According to recent studies by the CDC flu vaccination usually reduces the risk of influenza illness by 40% to 60% among the overall population when the vaccine viruses are like the ones spreading in the community. Furthermore, the CDC estimates influenza was responsible for 34,200 deaths in the USA during the 2018–2019 influenza season. Given that information, why haven't we been quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for influenza? Also, for all of you that believe quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for coronavirus is the right thing to do, will you be demanding we shut down for influenza from now on? If not, why?
March 17, 20206 yr I'm not necessarily saying we should shut everything down, but having a vaccine for the flu makes all the difference in my mind.
March 17, 20206 yr Given that information, why haven't we been quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for influenza? Also, for all of you that believe quarantining everyone and shutting down businesses for coronavirus is the right thing to do, will you be demanding we shut down for influenza from now on? If not, why? Because there's a vaccine?
March 17, 20206 yr Author I'm not necessarily saying we should shut everything down, but having a vaccine for the flu makes all the difference in my mind. But roughly speaking the vaccine for the flu is only about 50% effective and when we add the number of deaths from the flu to essentially a "jump ball" vaccine I don't follow that logic.
March 17, 20206 yr Author Because there's a vaccine? But roughly the vaccine is only effective half the time and the flu killed roughly 34 thousand people in the USA.
March 17, 20206 yr But roughly speaking the vaccine for the flu is only about 50% effective and when we add the number of deaths from the flu to essentially a "jump ball" vaccine I don't follow that logic. Fair enough. Vaccine makes a huge difference to me.
March 17, 20206 yr But roughly the vaccine is only effective half the time and the flu killed roughly 34 thousand people in the USA. How many cases of the flu were there associated with the 34,200? What percentage is that? How many cases of COVID-19 in the US so far, versus the number of deaths? What's that percentage at today? What's the difference in those percentages?
March 17, 20206 yr Author Fair enough. Vaccine makes a huge difference to me. That was my thinking until I learned more about the flu vaccine only being a jump ball or put another way since half the people will be protected because of the vaccine business can go on as usual.
March 17, 20206 yr But roughly speaking the vaccine for the flu is only about 50% effective and when we add the number of deaths from the flu to essentially a "jump ball" vaccine I don't follow that logic. That is a dubious statement, efficacy of the vaccine varies year to year depending on if they managed to figure out the most prevalent strains. Furthermore the vaccine is not meant to protect you from all strains of the flu, only the deadly ones. That is the reason why they focus so heavily on the elderly and those who are immunocompromised when it comes to the flu, herd immunity due to vaccine helps as well.
March 17, 20206 yr Author How many cases of the flu were there associated with the 34,200? What percentage is that? How many cases of COVID-19 in the US so far, versus the number of deaths? What's that percentage at today? What's the difference in those percentages? I think I understand what you are saying Deuce, if I follow you correctly you believe (and maybe rightly so) the death rate is some "line in the sand" higher for coronavirus than it is for influenza and coronavirus meets your threshold for quarantine and influenza does not?
March 17, 20206 yr I think I understand what you are saying Deuce, if I follow you correctly you believe (and maybe rightly so) the death rate is some "line in the sand" higher for coronavirus than it is for influenza and coronavirus meets your threshold for quarantine and influenza does not? 1. We know what the flu is, we don't know that about COVID-19. 2. We have a vaccine for the flu, we don't for COVID-19. 3. Based on what we know today, COVID-19 is SIGNIFICANTLY more fatal than the flu, granted that could change over time 4. Based on what we know today, we need to take every and all precautions to fight this virus until we can get a grasp on exactly what we're dealing with
March 17, 20206 yr I think I understand what you are saying Deuce, if I follow you correctly you believe (and maybe rightly so) the death rate is some "line in the sand" higher for coronavirus than it is for influenza and coronavirus meets your threshold for quarantine and influenza does not? Death toll may be one reason but it appears that each infected person seems to infect twice as many as the average flu sufferer. No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences
March 17, 20206 yr Author That is a dubious statement, efficacy of the vaccine varies year to year depending on if they managed to figure out the most prevalent strains. Furthermore the vaccine is not meant to protect you from all strains of the flu, only the deadly ones. That is the reason why they focus so heavily on the elderly and those who are immunocompromised when it comes to the flu, herd immunity due to vaccine helps as well. That is all noise. The bottom line is influenza is proven very deadly year after year yet we do "nothing" compared to what we are doing now with all the shutdowns.
March 17, 20206 yr That is all noise. The bottom line is influenza is proven very deadly year after year yet we do "nothing" compared to what we are doing now with all the shutdowns. So you don't think we should shut anything down?
March 17, 20206 yr Why Experts Are Urging Social Distancing to Combat Coronavirus Outbreak | UC San Francisco So one of the things noted here is that the current average rate of reproduction (i.e. how many people a sick patient infects) is 3.3 whereas seasonal flu is 1.3. This is one of the biggest reasons until we are more familiar with treatments and the most accurate rate of reproduction. Furthermore there are effective treatments for the flu currently and even though tamiflu is borderline worthless it does have some level of efficacy if administered early enough int he run of the disease. Covid-19 does not have anything analogous currently. Your point is not completely fallacious, however there are details that you are hand waving based solely on death toll. By that logic we should quarantine fast food given the rate of death from heart disease in the US. If we had a flu epidemic spread at a rate like Covid-19 in the US then I would suspect that similar actions would be warranted.
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