Will RPI generate new strategies in Ky HS football scheduling?

[JDEaston]

Teams that schedule regional powers shouldn't be penalized for playing better opponents from out of state, the fact that the out of state opponents only represent a 0.500 is a joke and should be revisited especially when you are playing top teams from a neighboring state.

 

I agree, it doesn't just hurt the big school traditional powers, but even schools like Ashland that have schools in bordering states that are as good or better than anyone they can schedule locally in state. Imo, Ashland will continue to schedule those schools for multiple reasons, rather than watering down their schedule and increasing travel time/expenses. But in the grand scheme of things the new RPI is hurting Ashland this season.

 

BGP for instance currently has Ashland at #3 in 3A, while the khsaa rpi has them at 5th and will likely drop to around 7th even if they win out due to having a district game vs a winless (in the district) Greenup County team and another out of state team from the Southside of Huntington, Wv.

[Oldercoach]

I have a slightly different take. Right now it looks as though Trinity would host three games and go on the road against the winner of North Harden/Central Hardin. While I would pick Trinity to beat either of those teams, it is hard to argue against an undefeated team getting to host. I don't like the incentive the current system gives to avoiding out of state games, but I'm willing to see how it plays out.

 

In looking closer you are correct that Trinity now has the highest RPI in Distrcts 5-8. Unfortunately, they will take a big hit in the Eastern game and Bowling Green won't be much of a bump with the stepdown to play a 5A. With lots of moving parts they could slip a little. But, maybe not.

[cdmaddix1]

How will the RPI factor in the playoff seeding? Will the whole class be seeded based off RPI, or by region?

[Voice of Reason]

VOR almost always agree with you, but victories over Newport and NewCath will do just a little to raise their RPI. Playing down against NC will hurt game value component, while Newport RPI is a wash so a victory will give a little bump. 2 wins will help but lots of other things need to happen. At this late in season the vastness of the mathematics won't allow for huge jumps.

 

The Lloyd win moved Beechwood from 11th to 7th in RPI. It is all about wins. The playing up or down factor or the strength of schedule are not nearly as important as getting wins and beating teams with winning records, regardless of what class they play in. Newport and Newport Catholic have good winning records so wins over those two by Beechwood will raise their RPI, probably up to #4.

[Oldercoach]

The Lloyd win moved Beechwood from 11th to 7th in RPI. It is all about wins. The playing up or down factor or the strength of schedule are not nearly as important as getting wins and beating teams with winning records, regardless of what class they play in. Newport and Newport Catholic have good winning records so wins over those two by Beechwood will raise their RPI, probably up to #4.

 

I can't be sure of my interpretation even though multiple views of the formula have been contemplated. But, it appears to me that the win against Lloyd is going to help them much more than a win over NewCath. That game factor penalty for playing down goes into all three %s so NewCath's record against mostly a modest 1A schedule will be diluted by about 15% in each of the WP, OWP, and OOWP numbers. Can't produce much of a bump even if NewCath was undefeated. SOS is major in the RPI and the playing down penalty is huge. Just as the loss to Taft was a real blow with a game factor of .5.

[Voice of Reason]

I can't be sure of my interpretation even though multiple views of the formula have been contemplated. But, it appears to me that the win against Lloyd is going to help them much more than a win over NewCath. That game factor penalty for playing down goes into all three %s so NewCath's record against mostly a modest 1A schedule will be diluted by about 15% in each of the WP, OWP, and OOWP numbers. Can't produce much of a bump even if NewCath was undefeated. SOS is major in the RPI and the playing down penalty is huge. Just as the loss to Taft was a real blow with a game factor of .5.

 

A win over Newport will have just as much positive influence on Beechwood's RPI as the win over Lloyd did.

 

From what I see, wins are king by a wide margin. I don't think SOS is nearly as much a factor. The #1 team in the entire state in RPI right now is Kentucky Country Day. Their SOS is terrible. They are undefeated. They are #1. The other issue is SOS under the KHSAA is based primarily on wins. Wins drive the numbers much more than the other factors.

 

Let's look at Williamsburg in 1A. Their true SOS is not very good. But their opponents have winning records so in the KHSAA their numbers get a boost because they are getting wins over teams with winning records regardless of who they have those wins over.

 

So to the question in the thread, what is the scheduling strategy we might see develop? From how it looks now the teams in demand are going to be any team with a winning record in a higher class even if they are getting their wins over no name teams. You want a higher class team you know you can beat who is going to have a winning record and you really don't care too much about who they get their wins over.

Edited October 22, 2019 by Voice of Reason

[Oldercoach]

A win over Newport will have just as much positive influence on Beechwood's RPI as the win over Lloyd did.

 

From what I see, wins are king by a wide margin. I don't think SOS is nearly as much a factor. The #1 team in the entire state in RPI right now is Kentucky Country Day. Their SOS is terrible. They are undefeated. They are #1. The other issue is SOS under the KHSAA is based primarily on wins. Wins drive the numbers much more than the other factors.

 

Let's look at Williamsburg in 1A. Their true SOS is not very good. But their opponents have winning records so in the KHSAA their numbers get a boost because they are getting wins over teams with winning records regardless of who they have those wins over.

 

So to the question in the thread, what is the scheduling strategy we might see develop? From how it looks now the teams in demand are going to be any team with a winning record in a higher class even if they are getting their wins over no name teams. You want a higher class team you know you can beat who is going to have a winning record and you really don't care too much about who they get their wins over.

 

As normal, I agree with almost all you say. However, I disagree with a Newport win definitely doing the same for BW as their Lloyd win. Not that vanilla a calculation. SOS is critical but how SOS is determined is as you say analytically quantified by Ws multiplied times the game value factor which is huge.

 

Your last paragraph is largely concurrent with my thinking, but playing up against teams with very weak schedules will have the play-up game value multiplier advantage diluted greatly by the (OOP X game value).

 

Got to say, I am intrigued by the complexity and very interested to see how it all plays out. I do feel that future scheduling by programs will take in RPI potential impacts....playing up risk/rewards....playing down and inherent risks....and out of state opponent RPI penalties/risks with no RPI rewards.

[Voice of Reason]

As normal, I agree with almost all you say. However, I disagree with a Newport win definitely doing the same for BW as their Lloyd win. Not that vanilla a calculation. SOS is critical but how SOS is determined is as you say analytically quantified by Ws multiplied times the game value factor which is huge.

 

Your last paragraph is largely concurrent with my thinking, but playing up against teams with very weak schedules will have the play-up game value multiplier advantage diluted greatly by the (OOP X game value).

 

Got to say, I am intrigued by the complexity and very interested to see how it all plays out. I do feel that future scheduling by programs will take in RPI potential impacts....playing up risk/rewards....playing down and inherent risks....and out of state opponent RPI penalties/risks with no RPI rewards.

 

If Beechwood beats Newport, they will jump over undefeated Breathitt County in RPI. I think a Newport win may actually be better for Beechwood's RPI than the Lloyd win. Newport is 7-2. Beating a 7-2 team will be a nice boost to Beechwood's RPI.

[Oldercoach]

If Beechwood beats Newport, they will jump over undefeated Breathitt County in RPI. I think a Newport win may actually be better for Beechwood's RPI than the Lloyd win. Newport is 7-2. Beating a 7-2 team will be a nice boost to Beechwood's RPI.

Correct in that BW will jump over undefeated Breathitt because Breathitt's SOS is extremely weak and their OPS and OOPS are likely to continue to decline even if they beat Leslie Co. Recognizing that RPI is a season long running # calculated by # of games played average, as the season goes on (all things being equal which they never are) with each game added as played the incremental value increase/decrease becomes smaller. In short, a win over Newport and Lloyd if they had exactly same record and their opponents had same record, and likewise their opponents opponents the RPI at the end of the season would be equal. However, during the season the incremental impact would be most affected by BW team played the earliest.

[Oldercoach]

VOR you intrigued me about KCD having highest RPI and had to look. They are 1A and have defeated a 6A, 3 5As, a 4A and a 3A (if I looked right). Thus their game value multiplier reward for playing up and winning overpowered the mediocrity of those teams. Their District games, even if they lose the next 2, might not be enough to lower their overall RPI substantially to take home team advantage in rounds 3/4. We probably both doubt they will get to round 4.

[BWTigers]

One thing I can say for sure is Beechwood should never change the way they schedule to have a higher RPI by the end of the year. They schedule they way they do to be prepared for a playoff run. If you look at Kentucky Country Day’s schedule most of their opponents have 0-4 wins and most of the wins their opponents have are against winless teams. This schedule is not preparing KCD for the battles they will encounter in the playoffs which is why they never make playoff runs. Beechwood schedules tougher competition to be ready for games like Mayfield, Somerset, and LCA. Playing bad teams will not get you ready for those type of games. Beechwood should continue to do what they do and just have to travel a bit more come playoff time. BTW it’s always more fun to knock a team out of the playoffs on their home field. Hopefully KHSAA will start making the games beyond the 3rd round neutral site games so games like Beechwood and Mayfield can be played where more fans from both schools will be more likely to attend.

 

I did have 1 question does the RPI calculation stop after the regular season or do you continue to accumulate points as you move through the playoffs?

[Voice of Reason]

@BWTigers

 

RPI ends with regular season. Playoff games have no impact on RPI.

[Voice of Reason]

VOR you intrigued me about KCD having highest RPI and had to look. They are 1A and have defeated a 6A, 3 5As, a 4A and a 3A (if I looked right). Thus their game value multiplier reward for playing up and winning overpowered the mediocrity of those teams. Their District games, even if they lose the next 2, might not be enough to lower their overall RPI substantially to take home team advantage in rounds 3/4. We probably both doubt they will get to round 4.

 

That is the model schedule for KHSAA RPI. KCD is the example that supports what I stated in post #21. The only way their schedule could be better were if those bigger class schools had a few more wins. Take away Berea and KCD's opponents are 16-40. That is your #1 KHSAA RPI team in the state.

[BWTigers]

@BWTigers

 

RPI ends with regular season. Playoff games have no impact on RPI.

 

Good to know thanks!!!

[Brown]

IMHO, Coaches and fans need something they could track and calculate. So CALPREPS would not work unless the formula was easily explained and understood.