Will RPI generate new strategies in Ky HS football scheduling?

[Oldercoach]

As I have studied the RPI calculations it has become apparent that schools like Beechwood that annually schedule up against higher division opponents and Trinity that schedules out of state powers may potentially revisit this playoff prep strategy. In BW's case they have longterm scheduled strong 6 & 5 A programs. The RPI gives them a game value for a win that is a real boost; but, a loss against anyone gives the dreaded 0 game value. Does the risk/reward of the 0 game value largely dilute the value of gaining top flight experience and knowing where you are when homefield advantage is jeopardized?

 

In Trinity's case all out of state competitors only provide a max game value of .5 for a win and of course 0 for a loss. For this year Trinity is almost assured of not having a playoff game past the 2nd round. My point being, RPI will affect future scheduling decisions. Higher classes will be very reluctant to schedule down, lower classes will want to schedule up only if they can feel good about a win, and out of state games will become fewer.

Edited October 21, 2019 by Oldercoach

[TheDeuce]

I'm quite confident in saying Trinity will not stop scheduling regional powers to have a better RPI rating.

[Voice of Reason]

The jury on this new RPI is still out for me to some extent. For example when I look at Beechwood as you mentioned, their RPI is moving up quickly. If they win their last 2 against Newport and Newport Central Catholic, a 6-4 Beechwood will almost certainly be in the top 4 in the 2A RPI and ahead of undefeated Breathitt County who played a much weaker schedule. Let's see what the KHSAA RPI looks like in two weeks and how it all plays out.

[cardman24]

I have been thinking about this myself. I wonder if you see some county games not being scheduled anymore if it doesn't help a teams RPI. I know those games draw large crowds and all, but it seems every game is critical with this RPI.

[KY Outsider]

I'm quite confident in saying Trinity will not stop scheduling regional powers to have a better RPI rating.

 

Teams that schedule regional powers shouldn't be penalized for playing better opponents from out of state, the fact that the out of state opponents only represent a 0.500 is a joke and should be revisited especially when you are playing top teams from a neighboring state.

[TheDeuce]

Teams that schedule regional powers shouldn't be penalized for playing better opponents from out of state, the fact that the out of state opponents only represent a 0.500 is a joke and should be revisited especially when you are playing top teams from a neighboring state.

 

I agree. It's lazy by the KHSAA, IMO.

[Oldercoach]

I agree. It's lazy by the KHSAA, IMO.

 

Understand, but the KHSAA explanation of the complexity of keeping track of multiple state schools creates an overpowering complexity and computing. Not as simple as just looking at the out of state opponents record, but the OOS's opponents record and the OOS's opponent's opponent record. Mentioned that the .5 game value is the norm adopted by other states.

[Squirrel]

This may be an ignorant question but why can't they just use a more proven, tried and true caclucated ranking system such as CalPreps?

[Oldercoach]

I'm quite confident in saying Trinity will not stop scheduling regional powers to have a better RPI rating.

 

But their schedule this year with the RPI will most likely dictate no 3rd round home game and very possibly no 4th round should they win the 3rd. Much greater RPI reward by playing a few more top 6A Ky teams. Truth be told there may be no other Ky 6A teams that are willing.

[laketime85]

I think that in Trinity's case there is more to it than just scheduling an opponent. I think that the reason that out of state scheduling happened was the lack of in state teams willing to play. I pretty sure that the 2010-2012 period they only had 9 regular season games because teams just were not willing to play. I would think that Trinity would love to play more in state teams if they were a quality opponent. Seems like Johnson Central is riding high maybe they would like to play. I am sure there are others but that team came to mind first.

[Oldercoach]

The jury on this new RPI is still out for me to some extent. For example when I look at Beechwood as you mentioned, their RPI is moving up quickly. If they win their last 2 against Newport and Newport Central Catholic, a 6-4 Beechwood will almost certainly be in the top 4 in the 2A RPI and ahead of undefeated Breathitt County who played a much weaker schedule. Let's see what the KHSAA RPI looks like in two weeks and how it all plays out.

 

VOR almost always agree with you, but victories over Newport and NewCath will do just a little to raise their RPI. Playing down against NC will hurt game value component, while Newport RPI is a wash so a victory will give a little bump. 2 wins will help but lots of other things need to happen. At this late in season the vastness of the mathematics won't allow for huge jumps.

[Trinity alum]

I have a slightly different take. Right now it looks as though Trinity would host three games and go on the road against the winner of North Harden/Central Hardin. While I would pick Trinity to beat either of those teams, it is hard to argue against an undefeated team getting to host. I don't like the incentive the current system gives to avoiding out of state games, but I'm willing to see how it plays out.

[Tigerpride94]

I think if your a 6A team you need to stick to scheduling 6A or 5A teams. If you play a class less than those they better be a good team that wins a lot to increase the opponent winning % to make up for the class win % penalty. I think there will be some strategy to scheduling, but as soon as your schedules are set for down the road they will go to a new system.

[FSfan]

This may be an ignorant question but why can't they just use a more proven, tried and true caclucated ranking system such as CalPreps?

 

I agree with this. Calpreps takes all games nationwide into account. Teams like CovCath and Trinity would get the credit they deserve for their out of state schedules.

[JDEaston]

Understand, but the KHSAA explanation of the complexity of keeping track of multiple state schools creates an overpowering complexity and computing. Not as simple as just looking at the out of state opponents record, but the OOS's opponents record and the OOS's opponent's opponent record. Mentioned that the .5 game value is the norm adopted by other states.

 

Using cal preps would be a good start hah.