Kentucky Derby 142

[5 STAR]

Used the following article to filter selections.

 

Looking at history and tossing out the Mine That Bird win, there were four horses that met the criteria using their speed rating analysis- Destin, Exaggerator, Gun Runner and Nyquist.

 

Hit the last 3 for trifecta box. That worked.

 

TwinSpires.com | 2�16 Kentucky Derby Brisnet.com Speed Rating Report | Bet Online With The Leader In Online Horse Racing

 

I can recall looking at the past performances for Mine That Bird, before that Derby. He had a "show" (3rd place) finish for a $1M stakes race several races before the Derby. The reason I noticed it is because I throw out any horses that have not run in a Grade I race before the Derby. Mine That Bird and CB had a perfect trip. Needless to say, I had $0 on MTB. Right or wrong (more wrong than right) but that's the way I do it. If a chalk like yesterday wins, I'm screwed.

[Wireman]

Since the point system started the favorite has won every year

 

Literally every year?

[jahearme]

Good to see you again !

 

Yes Sir! Thanks for stopping by!

[citycat]

Literally every year?

 

Yes every year. The point system was put in place for the 2013 Derby. Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), and now Nyquist were all post time favorites.

[Wireman]

Yes every year. The point system was put in place for the 2013 Derby. Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), and now Nyquist were all post time favorites.

 

That kind of sucks for the betting/fun side of things. I hit the exacta and Oaks/Derby double this year and only won $80 (combined). It was fun to actually win, but on a normal Derby year, that would have been $500 or more.

[Getslow]

Yes every year. The point system was put in place for the 2013 Derby. Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), and now Nyquist were all post time favorites.

 

With the cheap speed out of the race, a lot of the unpredictability is gone. You used to be able to count on some sort of insane pace that would fade along the final turn but have massive effects on the rest of the field; that's a thing of the past.

 

What we have left is a bunch of horses that are fairly proven over the distance and can be compared fairly well.

[75center]

This year's pace was quicker than I thought it would be. I thought Mike Smith would get the lead and then slow the field down more than he did.

[citycat]

Danzing Candy did set up a good pace for some closers (Exaggerator). The points has made the race more fair I believe in that I agree that sprint races should not count. We have seen the last of the Trinnibergs.

 

Funny how there does not seem to be the excitement of last year building up but maybe its early. AP was not even undefeated coming into the Derby but Nyquist seems to have doubters. The book is still out IMO on Uncle Mo's as to how far they can run (its his first crop) but one would guess 1 1/8 would be the farthest they go effectively but that can be proven wrong with more crops.

 

I say Nyquist wins the Preakness but loses in the Belmont.

[Jack of all Trades]

Danzing Candy did set up a good pace for some closers (Exaggerator). The points has made the race more fair I believe in that I agree that sprint races should not count. We have seen the last of the Trinnibergs.

 

Funny how there does not seem to be the excitement of last year building up but maybe its early. AP was not even undefeated coming into the Derby but Nyquist seems to have doubters. The book is still out IMO on Uncle Mo's as to how far they can run (its his first crop) but one would guess 1 1/8 would be the farthest they go effectively but that can be proven wrong with more crops.

 

I say Nyquist wins the Preakness but loses in the Belmont.

 

Didn't Nyquist just go 1 1/4 miles? Obviously Uncle Mo's can go more that 1 1/8 miles. I think he will turn out to be a pretty good sire for many years to come. As for the Derby, all one had to do was watch the races that occurred on Friday and early on Saturday. If you were not in the top 4 or 5 you had little chance to win the race. When I handicapped the race I figured Gun Runner would get to the front because inside of him was void of speed as were most if not all of the horses to his outside. I also figured that Nyquist, Moyhayman and Mor Spirit would be in that top flight and that Danzing Candy would be gunning for the lead from the 20 hole, but knew that he could not win from that post with his running style. I also considered Exaggerator, but thought he would be too far back and could not use him unless the track came up "off". If I had paid closer attention to the fact that it had rained a bit prior to the Derby I certainly would have had him on my ticket. As it stands, I bet on Mohayman and boxed him with Nyquist and Mor Spirit thus came up empty.

 

Told the guys I was watching the race with that Nyquist was a winner half way down the backstretch.

[citycat]

Didn't Nyquist just go 1 1/4 miles? Obviously Uncle Mo's can go more that 1 1/8 miles. I think he will turn out to be a pretty good sire for many years to come. As for the Derby, all one had to do was watch the races that occurred on Friday and early on Saturday. If you were not in the top 4 or 5 you had little chance to win the race. When I handicapped the race I figured Gun Runner would get to the front because inside of him was void of speed as were most if not all of the horses to his outside. I also figured that Nyquist, Moyhayman and Mor Spirit would be in that top flight and that Danzing Candy would be gunning for the lead from the 20 hole, but knew that he could not win from that post with his running style. I also considered Exaggerator, but thought he would be too far back and could not use him unless the track came up "off". If I had paid closer attention to the fact that it had rained a bit prior to the Derby I certainly would have had him on my ticket. As it stands, I bet on Mohayman and boxed him with Nyquist and Mor Spirit thus came up empty.

 

Told the guys I was watching the race with that Nyquist was a winner half way down the backstretch.

 

There are always single exceptions to pedigree trends but the fact that one progeny gets the distance effectively does not make the case that in general Unclo Mo's will get the classic distances. Indian Charlies and Arch's pedigree suggest 8-9 furlongs with Indian Charlies being on the more fragile side like Unbridled Songs.

[BIG BLACK JACK]

I've always been under the impress or told (can't remember which it was) that Colts generally get speed from the sire and stamina from the dam. I could be wrong.