article Western Kentucky Power Ranking - 09/06/15

[kypride]

1. South Warren

2. Owensboro

3. Bowling Green

4. Mayfield

[UK fball fan]

I agree on Daviess. They still have some work to do to replace anyone on the list, but, definitely a team to keep an eye on.. F.Simpson is another really good team that laid an egg vs Caldwell, but, that loss may not look that bad if Caldwell continues to play well. I think FS is better than they've shown thus far.

[Nathaniel Bryan]

LOL I got DF fired up. I did need a forceful message P88. SW is tough and if they played OHS it would be a tough game no doubt. I really think WC plus Ocath is a better resume, as is Mayfield beating PT who beat McCracken handily. But I don't doubt SW is top 4 team. If I ranked on who I thought would beat whom right now it would be Mayfield, BG and OHS and SW tied for third. Good job and research.

 

One point about WC vs JH, WC was missing some key players if I remember. The game was at JH and very tight. I think WC is better than most realize.

 

John Hardin's best athlete, Witherspoon, hasn't played yet this season (if he will at all).

And John Hardin's got a monster being unleashed this weekend from Texas (transferred in late). Huge lineman. John Hardin also had some players benched in the first quarter against South Warren (when things quickly came unraveled).

 

John Hardin hasn't exactly been at full force, either.

 

That being said, CalPreps computer says John Hardin is better than Caldwell County and Owensboro Catholic. CalPreps has Warren Central 64th in the state, Greenwood 69th. So not much difference there.

 

Furthermore, John Hardin beat North Hardin by 19 at North. Caldwell County won by fewer (14) and was at home (John was on the road).

 

I think you're discrediting John simply for losing to a very, very, very good South Warren team, yet trying to bolster teams such as Warren Central (lost to John) and Owensboro Catholic (lost to Daviess) simply on name recognition and not actual body of work.

 

At least Tilghman has played three solid teams (all in the top 1,600 in the country; all in the top-21 in the state according to CalPreps). Daviess County NOR Owensboro either have beaten anybody in the top 3,300 (Owensboro Catholic is 50th in the state, which is coincidentally the best win for both Daviess and Boro).

 

Owensboro Catholic has North Hardin later, so that will be good to see (since John Hardin also played North Hardin; South Warren also plays North Hardin). John Hardin hung 40 on North and held it to 21 (Caldwell allowed 35 to North).

[DragonFire]

John Hardin's best athlete, Witherspoon, hasn't played yet this season (if he will at all).

And John Hardin's got a monster being unleashed this weekend from Texas (transferred in late). Huge lineman. John Hardin also had some players benched in the first quarter against South Warren (when things quickly came unraveled).

 

John Hardin hasn't exactly been at full force, either.

 

That being said, CalPreps computer says John Hardin is better than Caldwell County and Owensboro Catholic. CalPreps has Warren Central 64th in the state, Greenwood 69th. So not much difference there.

 

Furthermore, John Hardin beat North Hardin by 19 at North. Caldwell County won by fewer (14) and was at home (John was on the road).

 

I think you're discrediting John simply for losing to a very, very, very good South Warren team, yet trying to bolster teams such as Warren Central (lost to John) and Owensboro Catholic (lost to Daviess) simply on name recognition and not actual body of work.

 

His original statement was saying that the South Warren win over John Hardin was basically equaled by Owensboro beating Warren Central, which wasn't exactly discrediting John Hardin. The closest I think he's come to that is saying that if the win over Warren Central was nothing, then so was South's win over John Hardin. We just saw Warren Central and John Hardin play to basically dead even at John Hardin. I think each team would have left thinking they should have won had they lost, and I think given the right circumstances, each team could have won by multiple scores. But a 4 point margin over a team that they trailed at the half and in the fourth quarter at home does not inspire me to declare there a dramatic difference in the teams. In trying to diminish Warren Central, I feel you yourself are doing more to diminish John Hardin if they couldn't put them down by more. In fact, I think that your note that John Hardin was missing players "when things unraveled" effectively argues to diminish South Warren's win more than any actual argument Brown has put forth.

 

As I said earlier, I don't agree that the wins are of equal quality, but it's less to do with the caliber of teams than it is the dominance of the win. South Warren jumped all over John Hardin quick and were dominating most of the way, other than some time in the third quarter. Central played dead even with Owensboro most of the night (at least defensively), trailing only 16-7 into the 4th Quarter, before Owensboro put them away. But the point is that it is not as if it is totally inarguable that the wins are similar based on the head to head result of John Hardin and Warren Central (don't they usually say homefield is worth around 3 points - even more dead even in the margin) and then adding Owensboro Catholic as a kicker puts them over. I don't see it that way, but it's not inarguable.

 

Also, I'll note that using CalPreps does nothing for me in your argument. I read what you said in the Cantrall thread, and I can't fathom what it is you think MaxPreps or CalPreps has over the LIT or Cantrall ratings. They're all based on some meaningless formulas that time and again prove to be wildly inaccurate in many cases while dead on in others. If Warren Central and Greenwood are essentially the same, does that mean you think Greenwood would play toe to toe with John Hardin as well?

[Nathaniel Bryan]

I think CalPreps and MaxPreps are more accurate than Cantrall and Lit NOW, simply because they have more data (out of state games).

 

Toward the end of the year, I have no doubt the four computer rankings - Cantrall of the LHL, Lit of the CJ, MaxPreps and CalPreps - will be eerily similar, if not exact in their order of rankings (since they'll have similar data and use similar factors such as win margin, strength of schedule, etc.).

 

That's what I was getting at.

 

Like you, I don't think there's a great bit of difference between John Hardin and Warren Central.

 

However, it seemed to me Brown felt Owensboro deserved MORE credit for beating Warren Central (winless) and Owensboro Catholic (winless against Kentucky teams) than South Warren (which destroyed a team which beat Warren Central).

 

Owensboro also beat Madisonville, but South Warren also beat Apollo and Greenwood. And I'm not so sure Madisonville is that much better than Apollo and Greenwood -- if at all.

 

Owensboro has wins over HISTORICALLY good teams, but I'm not sure they're actually good teams. This season at least.

 

And I'd say the same about any school which beats Meade (closer to my home) this year. Meade was absolutely outstanding the past two seasons. But look at Meade's schedule this year and take into account they lost something like 20-of-22 starters. Meade will be lucky to go .500. And I'm not so sure even .500 is likely.