article Class 6A Playoff Preview

6A District Playoff Preview:

The first and second rounds will be district opponents with the second round winner the district champions. The third round will be seeded by RPI. The Districts 1-4 winners will be seeded and play against each other and Districts 5-8 will be seeded and play against each other. In the fourth round the 4 teams left from the third round will be re-seeded. The State Championship home team will be the team with highest RPI. In rounds three and four the home team will be the highest seed. RPI for all teams is final and will not change during the playoffs so what it is today is what it will be through the playoffs.

This preview includes the district matchups and predictions. I expect there to be some possible upsets with closely matched teams, especially in the second round. A projection of third round matchups was made based on predictions and applying their RPI rating. Once the third round matchups are determined there will be a detailed look at the matchups prior to those games.

District 1

#4 Apollo (4-6) at #1 McCracken County (7-3)

Previous meeting: McCracken County 81 Apollo 51

These two tried to break the scoreboard in first meeting and should be another high scoring game. Apollo appears to be playing better than when these two teams first met, and an upset by Apollo is not out of the question. McCracken County followed up their good win over Henderson County with a 5-point clunker over winless Christian County. McCracken County RB Hunter Bradley was injured in last game and if he doesn’t play, McCracken County will have to bring their A game to get by Apollo.

Prediction: McCracken County 42 Apollo 35

#3 Daviess County (5-5) at #2 Henderson County (7-3)

Previous meeting: Daviess County 30 Henderson County 27

In the previous meeting Daviess County won at home. Now Daviess County must travel to Henderson County and Henderson County will have the extra motivation from the earlier loss. I think Henderson County who is coming off a close loss to a good Owensboro team will get the win behind their good defense.

Prediction: Henderson County 28 Daviess County 21

District 1 Championship

Projected District 1 Championship: #2 Henderson County at #1 McCracken County

Previous meeting: Henderson County 33 McCracken County 28

District Championship Projection: McCracken County 28 Henderson County 24

District 2

#4 Barren County (6-4) at #1 North Hardin (10-0)

Previous Meeting: North Hardin 55 Barren County 12

North Hardin will roll into the 2nd round as Barren County comes into this one a heavy underdog.

#3 Meade County (4-6) at #2 Central Hardin (8-2)

Previous meeting: Central Hardin 43 Meade County 7

Meade County rolls into Central Hardin with some momentum at their back after defeating 3A power DeSales. Central Hardin is coming of a stinging defeat from 5A South Oldham. This game looks to be closer than when they met the first time, but still looks like a tall order for Meade County to upset Central Hardin.

Prediction: Central Hardin 28 Meade County 14

District 2 Championship

Projected District 2 Championship: #2 Central Hardin at #1 North Hardin

Previous Meeting: North Hardin 7 Central Hardin 0

District Championship Projection: North Hardin 14 Central Hardin 7

District 3

#4 Pleasure Ridge Park (2-8) at #1 Manual (8-2)

Previous Meeting: Manual 48 Pleasure Ridge Park 6

Manual is coming off a 1-point loss to Male and will be highly motivated to get back on the winning track at the expense of a down Pleasure Ridge Park team.

Prediction: Manual 42 Pleasure ridge Park 7

#3 Butler (4-6) at #2 St. Xavier (6-4)

Previous meeting: St. Xavier 42 Butler 6

St. Xavier is coming off a 5-point loss to St. Xavier (OH) which provided a good test before starting the playoffs. Butler is coming off a bye week. In the first meeting between these two, Butler was missing starting QB Chaz Burks to injury, so this game could be closer with the return of Chaz Burks.

Prediction: St. Xavier 35 Butler 14

District 3 Championship

Projected District 3 Championship: #2 St. Xavier at #1 Manual

Previous Meeting: Manual 20 St. Xavier 19

District Championship Projection: Manual 17 St. Xavier 14

District 4

#4 Southern (4-6) at #1 Male (10-0)

Previous Meeting: Male 53 Southern 0

Male is coming off a 1-point win over Manual and hosts a over matched Southern team. Male starters will have an early night.

Prediction: Male 49 Southern 0

#3 Bullitt East (5-5) at #2 Fern Creek (7-3)

Previous Meeting: Fern Creek 21 Bullitt East 18

Despite the previous meeting being close, the two teams have gone in different directions down the stretch. Fern Creek gave Male a competitive game and finished with comfortable win over Southern, and Bullitt East was handily beaten by Male and lost to Shelby County. Fern Creek should get the win again in this one.

Prediction: Fern Creek 28 Bullitt East 14

District 4 Championship

Projected District 4 Championship: #2 Fern Creek at #1 Male

Previous Meeting: Male 34 Fern Creek 21

District Championship Projection: Male 28 Fern Creek 14

District 5

#4 Marshall County (2-8) at #1 Trinity (8-2)

No previous meeting as Marshall County is from District 1.

Marshall County must make a long bus ride to Trinity for what will be a running clock game as Trinity will be too much for Marshall County.

Prediction: Trinity 56 Marshall County 0

#3 Eastern (3-7) vs. #2 Ballard (5-5) at Seneca

Previous Meeting: Ballard 41 Eastern 14

Ballard is coming off a win over Henry Clay and Eastern is coming off a good win over Waggener. Ballard should win here but may be a closer game than the first meeting.

Prediction Ballard 35 Eastern 21

District 5 Championship

Projected District 5 Championship: #2 Ballard at #1 Trinity

Previous Meeting: Trinity 45 Ballard 7

District Championship Projection: Trinity 42 Ballard 7.

District 6

#4 Campbell County (1-9) at #1 Simon Kenton (6-4)

Previous Meeting: Simon Kenton 34 Campbell County 7

Simon Kenton is coming off a loss to Little Miami (OH) and Campbell County is coming off a win over Boone County. Simon Kenton will be too much for Campbell County and Simon Kenton should win comfortably.

Prediction: Simon Kenton 42 Campbell County 7

#3 Dixie Heights (4-6) at #2 Ryle (5-5)

Previous Meeting: Ryle 13 Dixie Heights 8

Ryle is coming off a bye week and Dixie Heights is coming off a win over Scott. The previous meeting was a close game and this one will likely be also. I give the edge to Ryle having two weeks to prepare but would not be surprised if Dixie Heights pulls the upset.

Prediction: Ryle 14 Dixie Heights 10.

District 6 Championship

Projected District 6 Championship: #2 Ryle at #1 Simon Kenton

District Championship Projection: Simon Kenton 28 Ryle 14

District 7

#4 Henry Clay (0-10) at Tates Creek (6-4)

Previous Meeting: Tates Creek 32 Henry Clay 0

Henry Clay has yet to win a game and this won’t change in this game. Tates Creek has been playing well and should roll in this game.

Prediction: Tates Creek 38 Henry Clay 0

#3 Lafayette (2-8) at Paul Dunbar (6-4)

Previous Meeting: Paul Dunbar 35 Lafayette 20

Lafayette is coming off a by week and their last game was against Paul Dunbar. Paul Dunbar is coming off a win over Bryan Station. Short turn around for these teams since recently played on 10/25. This game may be somewhat competitive but look for Paul Dunbar to come out on top.

Prediction: Paul Dunbar 28 Lafayette 17

District 7 Championship

Projected District 7 Championship: #2 Paul Dunbar at #1 Tates Creek

Previous Meeting: Tates Creek 46 Paul Dunbar 7

District Championship Projection: Tates Creek 35 Paul Dunbar 17

District 8

#4 Madison Central (1-9) at #1 George Rogers Clark (6-4)

Previous Meeting: George Rogers Clark 42 Madison Central 34

George Rogers Clark is coming off a win over Conner and Madison Central a loss to Southwestern. These teams are going in two different directions so look for George Rogers Clark to handle Madison Central.

Prediction: George Rogers Clark 35 Madison Central 17

#3 Bryan Station (3-7) at Oldham County (6-4)

Previous Meeting: Oldham County 41 Bryan Station 28

Oldham County is coming off a win over Collins and Bryan Station is coming off a loss to Paul Dunbar. Oldham County is playing well and should get the win over Bryan Station.

Prediction: Oldham County 35 Bryan Station 24

District 8 Championship

Projected District 8 Championship: #2 Oldham County at #1 George Rogers Clark

Previous Meeting: George Rogers Clark 28 Oldham County 26

District Championship Projection: George Rogers Clark 24 Oldham County 21

Round 3 Projections

West (Districts 1-4):

#4 McCracken County (.572) at #1 Male (.716)

#3 Manual (.636) at #2 North Hardin (.677)

East (Districts 5-8):

#4 George Rogers Clark (.508) at #1 Trinity (.632)

#3 Simon Kenton (.527) at #2 Tates Creek (.545)

Great read!

Districts 1, 2, 3, and 8 have really good, competitive championship matchup potential.

Nice job.

Sk would play Trinity in Round 3...

Sk would play Trinity in Round 3...

Not according to RPI.

Sk would play Trinity in Round 3...

Yes. According to the bracket. If the right teams won Trinity would play:

Marshall Co

Ballard

Simon Kenton

Oldham Co

Male

If I understand the way it works, the winners of Districts 1 through 4 would be seeded for the third round and the winners of Districts 5 through 8 would be seeded separately. In that case, the winners in Districts 5 through 8, assuming seeds hold would be Trinity in District 5 (RPI .633), Simon Kenton in District 6 (RPI .527), Tates Creek in District 7 (RPI .545) and GRC in District 8 (RPI .509). Seeding that group would have Trinity playing GRC and SK playing Tates Creek. If Oldham County wins District 8, just substitute them for GRC. In the 4th round, Trinity would be on the road against Manual or North Hardin, at home against anyone else. They can't play Male until the final.

If I understand the way it works, the winners of Districts 1 through 4 would be seeded for the third round and the winners of Districts 5 through 8 would be seeded separately. In that case, the winners in Districts 5 through 8, assuming seeds hold would be Trinity in District 5 (RPI .633), Simon Kenton in District 6 (RPI .527), Tates Creek in District 7 (RPI .545) and GRC in District 8 (RPI .509). Seeding that group would have Trinity playing GRC and SK playing Tates Creek. If Oldham County wins District 8, just substitute them for GRC. In the 4th round, Trinity would be on the road against Manual or North Hardin, at home against anyone else. They can't play Male until the final.

I stand corrected. The fine print in the bracket was confusing. So after round 2, there's no telling who will play who. I don't like it.

Looks like Manual gets the 3 point advantage for being the home team against St. X.

Looks like Manual gets the 3 point advantage for being the home team against St. X.

Toss up game, although I won’t be surprised if St.X wins. On paper with season results had to go with Manual.