First Accumulating Snow Possible?

[nWo]

We could see the first accumulation of snow this upcoming weekend, 1/6-7/24. Before we entered this winter season, I posted what I thought was the possible track of future system taking due to El Niño. This first system will be close to that track. A low-pressure system will move northeasterly from the Gulf Coast of the Texas/Louisiana area towards Kentucky. Sometime Saturday afternoon or evening, low pressure is forecast to pass through eastern Kentucky. Precipitation will start as rain for most of Kentucky. The higher elevations of eastern Kentucky could see some light snow before it turns to rain. Due to the counterclockwise circulation of the low, arctic air will move in on the northwest side of the system. This will change the precipitation from rain to snow. There could be a brief transition period of freezing rain in some areas.  At this time, the area with the best chance to see any possible accumulation is north and west of a line from around Bowling Green to around Ashland.  This is not an official forecast, but accumulations of 3–8" are possible. Let me say that this is a preliminary forecast, and the accumulation totals will be fine-tuned as we get closer to this weekend. The exact track is still uncertain this far out, so the accumulation field will change as the track of the system moves. I will fine-tune my forecast as we get closer to the weekend. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sportsfan41]

It looks like one of those storms where it just depends on how far south that cold air goes while the snow line kinda runs up through the Ohio River valley.  Seems like typically when there is snow involved it tends to stay just to the north of the Ohio river.

[nkypete]

Are you telling me that I need to get my Christmas lights on my house down now???  I'm Catholic.  We are supposed to keep them up until Epiphany (which is next Sunday 1/7).   🥶🤣

[nWo]

1 hour ago, nkypete said:

Are you telling me that I need to get my Christmas lights on my house down now???  I'm Catholic.  We are supposed to keep them up until Epiphany (which is next Sunday 1/7).   🥶🤣

I'd wait another day or so to decide until we get a better idea of where the storm will go. 

[nWo]

5 hours ago, sportsfan41 said:

It looks like one of those storms where it just depends on how far south that cold air goes while the snow line kinda runs up through the Ohio River valley.  Seems like typically when there is snow involved it tends to stay just to the north of the Ohio river.

That's possible. The afternoon GFS run has the storm taking a more southerly track and the low gaining strength as it passes through Kentucky. It may turn into a nor'easter after it passes. I'm waiting for tonight's run before I post my next update. That will come tomorrow morning. 

[sportsfan41]

Just now, nWo said:

That's possible. The afternoon GFS run has the storm taking a more southerly track and the low gaining strength as it passes through Kentucky. It may turn into a nor'easter after it passes. I'm waiting for tonight's run before I post my next update. That will be tomorrow morning. 

I say let's go ahead and get one good snow under our belt.  Then we just need one more and after that we can go ahead and start trending towards summer again.  😁

[nWo]

According to the most recent GFS run, most of Kentucky will see snow accumulation on Saturday. It is predicted that the low-pressure system will move close to Kentucky's southeast. As it moves on, it will begin to get stronger. The snowfield will cross parts of Kentucky along this route.

The precipitation is predicted to start on Saturday morning. The snow should start to turn after noon when cold air moves in, and it will continue to snow until Saturday night. The GFS predicts that several inches could fall. Estimating the amount of snowfall is still a bit premature. Return for updates.

 

 

 

[nWo]

9 hours ago, sportsfan41 said:

I say let's go ahead and get one good snow under our belt.  Then we just need one more and after that we can go ahead and start trending towards summer again.  😁

You may get your wish. There is another chance of accumulating snow to end next week.

[sportsfan41]

3 hours ago, nWo said:

You may get your wish. There is another chance of accumulating snow to end next week.

Just to be clear, I'm about 6-7 miles south of 275 in NKY

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

8 hours ago, nWo said:

You may get your wish. There is another chance of accumulating snow to end next week.

[Jumper_Dad]

@nWo When will we know what Saturday is going to look like?

[nWo]

1st call for snow accumulation:

It probably isn't going to snow for everyone. The snowfall is expected mainly north of I-64. There will be an overall 1-3" possible. There might be a few small areas up to 4"

 

 

[nWo]

2nd call for possible snow accumulation:

I'm staying with my previous outlook of 1-3" with some isolated areas of possible 4". The following maps are all in agreement. They are from the GFS, NAM, NAM3Km, and Euro.