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Oldham County at South Oldham Predictions/Updates


Oldham County at South Oldham Predictions/Updates  

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  1. 1. OC vs South

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The undefeated 3-0 Colonels take on there arch nemesis 10 minutes down the road in South Oldham. South has won 10 straight in this matchup, could this be the year that OC breaks the streak. This should be a good one. Get ready, the showdown in Crestwood is slated for this Friday 9/17 at 7:30.

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I was waiting for @ColonelMike to post on this match up. He has been quiet I hope he is OK.
For being such a big game, there is not a whole Lotta chatter going on. I believe South Oldham has won this game Ten years straight.  
I’m just gonna get right to the point and give you what I think will be OC’s keys to victory:

Defensively OC needs to Shut down off tackle plays and push them to the outside and keep their wing back’s running east and west. I would not be surprised if the dragons come out and run some sort of trick play on their opening drive.

 

offensively you need to win the battle up front of course, allow sophomore running back Caden Sheppard to wear down south’s d-line and linebackers, Which should allow the passing game to open up and for senior quarterback Sam Young to use his legs and keep the defense off balance. I expect sophomore slot Justin Ruffin senior wide receiver Jacob Davis to have big games.

If this was not a rivalry game I would say 

49-7 OC

But since it is a rivalry game

28-21 OC 

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I really want to see OC win this one. I feel like the past couple of years everyone around OC has been saying this is the year we beat them, but every time it ends up going the other way. I really feel like this year is different but who knows. Should definitely be a good game, go Colonels. 

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28-14 OC

OC has the edge. Young has the receivers this year to balance the passing and run game. With a strong power fullback in Sheppard and the quickness of Gilchrist they will prevail.  South will have to force turnovers and beat them on the man coverage to pull out a win. 

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South has a tremendous run defense so if OC’s gonna win it will be through the air. Sam Young has historically struggled against South, throwing 3 ints in the past 2 years. I think this could be the year Young puts it all together with his array of weapons. We’ll see Friday night in what should be a tremendous atmosphere.

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Hi, gang!

OCDad - thanks for the concern!   I have been buried beyond belief....just started a new job last week, have been running the local little league fall ball (also coaching a team), and Pegasus has greatly expanded its coverage of local football, covering (almost) every game played by the local three teams.

Whew!

I'm currently doing prep work for the two broadcasts tomorrow night (OC vs SO and North vs. Western.....)

This is a very interesting game.   In the interest of time....here's some bullet point notes...

  • South has won the last 10 meetings between the schools.  The 10th win in the streak - a 28-21 South Oldham victory in come-from-behind fashion late in the fourth quarter last year at OCHS - gave South a 17-16 edge in the all-time series.
  • Oldham last victory was in 2010, a 40-19 win in Buckner.   It was South coach Jamie Reed's first game in the series, and his only loss to the Colonels.
  • Oldham coach TaShawn McBroom will be coaching in his fifth game in the series, but his first as head coach.
  • South comes into the game at 2-2 on the season, with losses to two Top 10 teams - Ballard (6A) and CAL (3A).   The Dragons have beaten Silver Creek (IN) and North Oldham.
  • Oldham is 3-0 on the field, but 4-0 officially.   The Colonels beat Simon Kenton and Fern Creek on the road, and whipped Shelby County at home.   Oldham got a forfeit win last week when Meade County was quarantined.    As a result of the forfeit, Oldham picked up 5A Top 10 opponent Woodford County for 9/24, which would have been a "bye" week for the Colonels.
  • Turnovers could be key; neither defense has many takeaways.   Oldham has recovered three fumbles in three games.   South has recovered four fumbles and intercepted one pass in four games.
  • Both teams have struggled with penalties, particularly on the offensive side of things.  
  • Oldham County - 
    • On offense, the Colonels feature a potent passing game led by three year starter Sam Young, last year's district offensive player of the year.   A 60% passer, Young has also averaged over 500 yards rushing in each of his previous two years, and is dangerously quick and smart as a runner.   With a more experienced and potent group of receivers this year, Young is even more dangerous and he rarely makes mistakes.   Young has completed 33 of 48 passes in three games with 7 TDs and 0 picks, for 621 yards.   He's also averaged over 70 yards a game rushing, adding another five scores.
    • Young's favorite target has been sophomore Justin Ruffin, who has 14 catches for 227 yards.   But part of Young's strength is his ability to get a lot of different receivers involved; eight different Colonels have caught a pass this year so far.
    • RB Caden Sheppard is a weapon Oldham hasn't had in a while; a power running back with quick feet.  Sheppard - who weighs about 260 - is a load to bring down, but has displayed some nifty footwork while living between the tackles.   He averages five yards a carry.    
    • Oldham is averaging about 400 yards of offense a game, with it nearly split evenly between run and pass.
    • Young had 160 yards passing and 133 rushing in the recent win over Fern Creek, 39-13.   Sheppard had 86 yards rushing.
    • New kicker Jose Verta comes over from the soccer team; his first game was the game against Fern Creek two weeks ago, when he hit 3 of 4 PAT.   He has potential as a long-range FG kicker.
    • Offensively, the Colonels have spread the wealth around, making it hard to key on anyone.   Fourteen different Colonels have scored this season in just 3 games.   Oldham is averaging nearly 44 points per game.
    • The Oldham defense hasn't excelled at takeaways, but the "bend-but-don't-break" Colonels have given up just an average of 18.3 ppg.
  • South Oldham
    • South Oldham opened the year featuring a spread offense, and the Dragons still ran it on a significant number of plays during a 27-0 win over North Oldham last week, but, as expected, South featured a high percentage of offensive snaps from its "wingbone" attack out of the wing-t formation.
    • Jeffery Burton exploded last week; the junior ran all over the Mustangs for 144 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.
    • After missing the Dragons' first two games, Kyle Smythe has emerged as a force on both sides of the ball.   The senior doesn't start in the offensive backfield, and has only 17 carries in two games - but he leads the team in rushing yards per game at 66.5 ypg averages over 7 yards a carry.   He has the team's longest run from scrimmage, over 50 yards against Ballard for a TD.  Defensively, Smythe has 15 tackles in two games, including 8 against North Oldham last week.
    • Of the three starting backs - Luke Oliveros, Jeffery Burton, and Jack McCubbin - McCubbin (a junior) is perhaps the most versatile.    McCubbin has rushed for a team-high 261 yards and 3 scores, and has 3 catches for 29 yards and a score.   He has also thrown one pass for 22 yards and a touchdown.   
    • Defensively, Elijah Lalli has been a one man wrecking machine for the Dragons.   He has an incredible 41 tackles in four games, including an equally amazing 12 TFL.   He has two sacks so far.   Impressively, he has been great against all four opponents, including the ranked teams.   He had 10 tackles (5 TFL) last week against North Oldham; he had 9 tackles (4 TFL) against Ballard the week before...
    • DB Wyatt Fowler, LB Maddox Flener, and DL Malachi Kleber have been four defensive standouts for South this season so far as well.  Kleber had two sacks last week.
    • South's defense won the day last week; holding North Oldham to just 42 yards of total offense, including negative rushing yards.
    • In the trenches, South has the advantage in this one.   The offensive line's smallest member hits the scales at 245.   The veteran mammoths on the OL helped South pull away late from North Oldham last week after the smaller Mustang line finally wore down against the bigger Dragons.
    • Senior QB Devlin McGee is slowly rounding into form.   Though just 4 of 10 passing last week, he didn't turn the ball over, and connected on two TD passes, including a deep 57 yard TD pass to speedy WR Connor Hayden.
  • Three of the last four meetings have been very close and competitive...    South won last year, 28-21, in 2018 by a score of 23-17, and in 2017 by a 16-6 score.   Only 2019 wasn't competitive.   Even though many thought Oldham might be the favorite that year, the Dragons routed Oldham, 49-0 in a stunning result.
  • Last year:   South Oldham 28, Oldham County 21 - Due to the COVID pandemic, the two rivals found themselves meeting in the first game of the season.   The Colonels led most of the way, but some miscues late - including a poor punt - gave South the ball deep in Colonel territory and provided the opportunity for the Dragons to move ahead late.   South prevailed thanks in large part to a running game that produced 248 yards rushing.   Of the runners who carried the ball for South that day, only Jack McCubbin (7 carries, 37 yards) returns.   Kyle Smythe and Wyatt Fowler both had 6 tackles for South.    Oldham QB Sam Young was 19 of 39 passing for 226 yards and a score, but uncharacteristically threw 2 INT.   The Colonels managed 115 yards rushing, but averaged less than 4 yards a carry.   Scott Monteleone (9 tackles) was one of the Colonels' top defenders that day and returns this year.

South has played probably the toughest opponents in Ballard and CAL; Oldham is brimming with the confidence of an undefeated team.    South seems to be starting to get their offensive feet under them, but penalties continued to plague the offensive unit last week.   Oldham will have to prove they can run the ball against a stout South run defense.   South will have to prove they can cover all the Colonel receivers.

Should be great fun.

PEGASUS SPORTS goes on the air at 6:30 pm ET with free, live high definition video coverage.

www.pegasussportsky.com

I'll post updates as I can.

CM

 

 

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12 minutes ago, ColonelMike said:

Hi, gang!

OCDad - thanks for the concern!   I have been buried beyond belief....just started a new job last week, have been running the local little league fall ball (also coaching a team), and Pegasus has greatly expanded its coverage of local football, covering (almost) every game played by the local three teams.

Whew!

I'm currently doing prep work for the two broadcasts tomorrow night (OC vs SO and North vs. Western.....)

This is a very interesting game.   In the interest of time....here's some bullet point notes...

  • South has won the last 10 meetings between the schools.  The 10th win in the streak - a 28-21 South Oldham victory in come-from-behind fashion late in the fourth quarter last year at OCHS - gave South a 17-16 edge in the all-time series.
  • Oldham last victory was in 2010, a 40-19 win in Buckner.   It was South coach Jamie Reed's first game in the series, and his only loss to the Colonels.
  • Oldham coach TaShawn McBroom will be coaching in his fifth game in the series, but his first as head coach.
  • South comes into the game at 2-2 on the season, with losses to two Top 10 teams - Ballard (6A) and CAL (3A).   The Dragons have beaten Silver Creek (IN) and North Oldham.
  • Oldham is 3-0 on the field, but 4-0 officially.   The Colonels beat Simon Kenton and Fern Creek on the road, and whipped Shelby County at home.   Oldham got a forfeit win last week when Meade County was quarantined.    As a result of the forfeit, Oldham picked up 5A Top 10 opponent Woodford County for 9/24, which would have been a "bye" week for the Colonels.
  • Turnovers could be key; neither defense has many takeaways.   Oldham has recovered three fumbles in three games.   South has recovered four fumbles and intercepted one pass in four games.
  • Both teams have struggled with penalties, particularly on the offensive side of things.  
  • Oldham County - 
    • On offense, the Colonels feature a potent passing game led by three year starter Sam Young, last year's district offensive player of the year.   A 60% passer, Young has also averaged over 500 yards rushing in each of his previous two years, and is dangerously quick and smart as a runner.   With a more experienced and potent group of receivers this year, Young is even more dangerous and he rarely makes mistakes.   Young has completed 33 of 48 passes in three games with 7 TDs and 0 picks, for 621 yards.   He's also averaged over 70 yards a game rushing, adding another five scores.
    • Young's favorite target has been sophomore Justin Ruffin, who has 14 catches for 227 yards.   But part of Young's strength is his ability to get a lot of different receivers involved; eight different Colonels have caught a pass this year so far.
    • RB Caden Sheppard is a weapon Oldham hasn't had in a while; a power running back with quick feet.  Sheppard - who weighs about 260 - is a load to bring down, but has displayed some nifty footwork while living between the tackles.   He averages five yards a carry.    
    • Oldham is averaging about 400 yards of offense a game, with it nearly split evenly between run and pass.
    • Young had 160 yards passing and 133 rushing in the recent win over Fern Creek, 39-13.   Sheppard had 86 yards rushing.
    • New kicker Jose Verta comes over from the soccer team; his first game was the game against Fern Creek two weeks ago, when he hit 3 of 4 PAT.   He has potential as a long-range FG kicker.
    • Offensively, the Colonels have spread the wealth around, making it hard to key on anyone.   Fourteen different Colonels have scored this season in just 3 games.   Oldham is averaging nearly 44 points per game.
    • The Oldham defense hasn't excelled at takeaways, but the "bend-but-don't-break" Colonels have given up just an average of 18.3 ppg.
  • South Oldham
    • South Oldham opened the year featuring a spread offense, and the Dragons still ran it on a significant number of plays during a 27-0 win over North Oldham last week, but, as expected, South featured a high percentage of offensive snaps from its "wingbone" attack out of the wing-t formation.
    • Jeffery Burton exploded last week; the junior ran all over the Mustangs for 144 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.
    • After missing the Dragons' first two games, Kyle Smythe has emerged as a force on both sides of the ball.   The senior doesn't start in the offensive backfield, and has only 17 carries in two games - but he leads the team in rushing yards per game at 66.5 ypg averages over 7 yards a carry.   He has the team's longest run from scrimmage, over 50 yards against Ballard for a TD.  Defensively, Smythe has 15 tackles in two games, including 8 against North Oldham last week.
    • Of the three starting backs - Luke Oliveros, Jeffery Burton, and Jack McCubbin - McCubbin (a junior) is perhaps the most versatile.    McCubbin has rushed for a team-high 261 yards and 3 scores, and has 3 catches for 29 yards and a score.   He has also thrown one pass for 22 yards and a touchdown.   
    • Defensively, Elijah Lalli has been a one man wrecking machine for the Dragons.   He has an incredible 41 tackles in four games, including an equally amazing 12 TFL.   He has two sacks so far.   Impressively, he has been great against all four opponents, including the ranked teams.   He had 10 tackles (5 TFL) last week against North Oldham; he had 9 tackles (4 TFL) against Ballard the week before...
    • DB Wyatt Fowler, LB Maddox Flener, and DL Malachi Kleber have been four defensive standouts for South this season so far as well.  Kleber had two sacks last week.
    • South's defense won the day last week; holding North Oldham to just 42 yards of total offense, including negative rushing yards.
    • In the trenches, South has the advantage in this one.   The offensive line's smallest member hits the scales at 245.   The veteran mammoths on the OL helped South pull away late from North Oldham last week after the smaller Mustang line finally wore down against the bigger Dragons.
    • Senior QB Devlin McGee is slowly rounding into form.   Though just 4 of 10 passing last week, he didn't turn the ball over, and connected on two TD passes, including a deep 57 yard TD pass to speedy WR Connor Hayden.
  • Three of the last four meetings have been very close and competitive...    South won last year, 28-21, in 2018 by a score of 23-17, and in 2017 by a 16-6 score.   Only 2019 wasn't competitive.   Even though many thought Oldham might be the favorite that year, the Dragons routed Oldham, 49-0 in a stunning result.
  • Last year:   South Oldham 28, Oldham County 21 - Due to the COVID pandemic, the two rivals found themselves meeting in the first game of the season.   The Colonels led most of the way, but some miscues late - including a poor punt - gave South the ball deep in Colonel territory and provided the opportunity for the Dragons to move ahead late.   South prevailed thanks in large part to a running game that produced 248 yards rushing.   Of the runners who carried the ball for South that day, only Jack McCubbin (7 carries, 37 yards) returns.   Kyle Smythe and Wyatt Fowler both had 6 tackles for South.    Oldham QB Sam Young was 19 of 39 passing for 226 yards and a score, but uncharacteristically threw 2 INT.   The Colonels managed 115 yards rushing, but averaged less than 4 yards a carry.   Scott Monteleone (9 tackles) was one of the Colonels' top defenders that day and returns this year.

South has played probably the toughest opponents in Ballard and CAL; Oldham is brimming with the confidence of an undefeated team.    South seems to be starting to get their offensive feet under them, but penalties continued to plague the offensive unit last week.   Oldham will have to prove they can run the ball against a stout South run defense.   South will have to prove they can cover all the Colonel receivers.

Should be great fun.

PEGASUS SPORTS goes on the air at 6:30 pm ET with free, live high definition video coverage.

www.pegasussportsky.com

I'll post updates as I can.

CM

 

 

Wow @ColonelMike!

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Just now, ColonelMike said:

Yeah, I've been a little busy of late.    And too many late nights.   I'm too old for this....   😂

We are lucky to have you!

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16 minutes ago, OCDad said:

@ColonelMikeglad you are great!  
thank you for the in depth look here.  You now have me worried!  LOL

LOL!   You always have to worry about rivalry games.    And this one is no different.....I can name several of these OC-SO games that didn't go to the better team.   But that's the way rivalries go....

We will go on the air with a longer pregame show at 6:30 pm, featuring short interviews with both coaches.

www.pegasussportsky.com

CM

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