Sure I can prove it. All I need to prove it is that you think it was a good idea to leave Leake in the game last night. I don't care what the results were. The bullpen was rested. Leake was already at 103 pitches, and had been pitching in extreme heat all day. As HT pointed out Leake averages around 87 pitches a game. The bullpen was fully rested. The Reds have been trying to limit his innings. There was no logical reason to run Leake back out there. None whatsoever.

 

Leake had thrown shut out baseball, and the opposing teams pitcher was leading off the next inning. That is a good reason to run him back out there, you run him back out there until he gets into trouble. A time he probably should have taken him out was after a guy got on base. As I said its very easy to say your way is right after you see the results. If he goes back out there and goes 1,2,3 I bet we don't hear a word from you. It gets back to people will always things its a wrong decision if it don't work. Which gets back to my original comment that led to all this, Dusty was in a lose-lose situtation if it didn't work. If he puts the pen in like you said, and they give up 4 runs still. (Which is very possible since the bullpen has been less than impressive the last two games.) You can bet you would have heard plenty of people complaning about how can you take a guy out who has thrown shut out baseball and would be facing the opposing teams pitcher. If it doesn't work it will be considered the wrong decision.

 

I just seen your other post after this. Which as I said usually I agree with you on your bashing of Dusty because he makes some horrible decisions. This decision was not one that I thought was horrible. Dusty basically as I said to start with was in a lose-lose situation no matter what he chose to do if it didn't work. Which maybe he would deserve, since he has made many other bad decisions its easy to get mad no matter what he does if it does not work.

I believe they have more talent than any team in the NL Central. Blame who you want. There is plenty to go around, but I believe Dusty is ultimately the one to blame. That's why he must go.

 

Now this I agree with. Which is kind of funny since the Reds have a history of firing managers or just letting them leave who has done well here, who were actually good managers like Lou, Davey Johnson, and Jack McKeon. Then the Reds go down hill after getting rid of those guys. Yet this time, depending on who they would get they might actually be better off getting rid of a manager who has had some success with them.

Is there a reason Bob Brenly isn't managing somewhere? And no, he isn't my 1st choice.

 

Even though it would be nice getting a proven manager like that, a guy who I liked who I wished the Reds gave a chance was the man who took over in the middle of the year before Dusty. It's late and I can't think of his name for some reason, but I really liked how he managed the Reds during his short time here.

Pete Mackanin ...

From watching him the last decade it seems more likely that he comes across as a likeable guy who has been put in a couple of positions with very good talent and resources and worn out his welcome with his handling of pitchers, musical lineups and steadfast loyalty to mediocre veterans. He was not a bad guy to bring into the situation that he was brought into because players seem to like him and with a young team it really didn't matter if he cost them a few games here and there as long as he didn't let the young pitchers get ragged out. Now, however, given the Reds limited financial resources they can't afford to have a manager costing them games because they have enough talent to win the division--but not by much.

 

I agree with your entire take on Dusty and the current Reds.

There's one thing to say he needs to be the fall guy but it's completely different to say he doesn't have a clue what he's doing while he's managed many successful teams. I mean, he's top 25 in all-time wins as a manager.

 

He seems great at supporting his players and gaining their trust. He'sll stick with guys and they know it so they don't have to look over their shoulder. He seems very likeable and I'm very aware he knows the game of baseball. That doesn't mean he doesn't make horrible decisions or know how to handle a pitching staff though.

Even though it would be nice getting a proven manager like that, a guy who I liked who I wished the Reds gave a chance was the man who took over in the middle of the year before Dusty. It's late and I can't think of his name for some reason, but I really liked how he managed the Reds during his short time here.

Believe it or not, Pete Mac is exactly who I was talking about.

I believe they have more talent than any team in the NL Central. Blame who you want. There is plenty to go around, but I believe Dusty is ultimately the one to blame. That's why he must go.

 

Here is a simple talent test. Take the top two hitters on the contending teams and tell me where the Reds rank.

 

Cards - Pujols and Holliday

Brewers - Braun and Fielder

Reds - Votto and ?? Bruce? Phillips?

Pirates - ??? No contest ... and that is why they are truly a non factor

 

The Reds are clearly the worst of the three true contenders. Look at the other parts of the contenders (starters, bullpen, etc.) and the Reds are not clearly better in any area, except defense. So how are they the most talented team in the division? How does Dusty manage around that? I have said all year the biggest problem with the Reds is Scott Rolen/no clean up hitter. He made the difference last year. If the Reds could find a hitter to plug into the 4 hole every night, they will win the division. It isn't Dusty. It isn't the whole offense. They need one part to put in the 4 hole and then every player has their role and things will click.

Here is a simple talent test. Take the top two hitters on the contending teams and tell me where the Reds rank.

 

Cards - Pujols and Holliday

Brewers - Braun and Fielder

Reds - Votto and ?? Bruce? Phillips?

Pirates - ??? No contest ... and that is why they are truly a non factor

 

The Reds are clearly the worst of the three true contenders. Look at the other parts of the contenders (starters, bullpen, etc.) and the Reds are not clearly better in any area, except defense. So how are they the most talented team in the division? How does Dusty manage around that? I have said all year the biggest problem with the Reds is Scott Rolen/no clean up hitter. He made the difference last year. If the Reds could find a hitter to plug into the 4 hole every night, they will win the division. It isn't Dusty. It isn't the whole offense. They need one part to put in the 4 hole and then every player has their role and things will click.

 

 

Why use only the top two hitters? Last time I checked there are 8 offensive players in the lineup each game. And you definitely have to consider the defense. The Cardinals are a terrible defensive club, and Casey M, is pretty bad at 3rd for the Brew Crew. How many saves have the Cardinals blown this year? Their bullpen has been better of late, but they were terrible early in the year. I agree not having Rolen healthy has really hurt the Reds, but I still say the Reds have the most talent in the division.

The division title is all about pitching. Something Dusty horribly mismanages.

The division title is all about pitching. Something Dusty horribly mismanages.

 

How?

 

I can't disagree with pitching being the key. It always is. The Pirates are proving that more than ever.

 

What are your guidelines of managing a pitching staff? Is there a certain number of pitches you will let your starters get to? Are there hard rules that you will not bend on e.g. 110 pitches you are done? Do you have set roles for your bullpen that are fixed and don't change? Or do you just tell everyone down there to be ready to pitch from the fifth inning on?

 

I had serious doubts about Dusty and really didn't like the hiring of him as manager. A big part of it was my perception of how he handles pitchers and my fear of him working with a young team. Maybe he has changed, but my perceptions have proven wrong about Dusty. I feel completely different about him than I did when he was hired. IMO he has done a great job handling the young Reds pitchers. The young players have clearly grown under him. I really like the way he manages his roster by playing everyone regularly enough to keep them effective when needed. I think he is a great communicator and that is probably the biggest reason why players love to play for him. I consider him clearly the best Reds manager since Davey Johnson. Among Reds manager since Sparky, he is in the top 3 with Johnson and Pinella (yes, I consider all three better than Pete).

 

Sorry, got on a tangent there. Back to the question of handling pitchers. What guidelines do you have that you think Dusty clearly is wrong on and/or what does he do in managing pitchers that is so wrong?

Why use only the top two hitters? Last time I checked there are 8 offensive players in the lineup each game. And you definitely have to consider the defense. The Cardinals are a terrible defensive club, and Casey M, is pretty bad at 3rd for the Brew Crew. How many saves have the Cardinals blown this year? Their bullpen has been better of late, but they were terrible early in the year. I agree not having Rolen healthy has really hurt the Reds, but I still say the Reds have the most talent in the division.

 

I chose only the top two hitters because it is the quickest, easiest way to show that the Reds talent isn't what many think it is. The second best hitter on the Reds is significantly worse than that hitter for the Cards and Brewers. And that makes a huge difference in the entire offensive line up.

 

Take the time to do a side by side comparison of the teams and I think if you look at it with an open mind and an honest judgment, you will see that the Reds are not better. Look at these Reds for what they are, not what you think they should be. For example, Jay Bruce is starting to look more and more like Adam Dunn - good numbers but very streaky. At this point in his career, Dunn was better than Bruce in every category except slightly behind Bruce in AVG and made a few more errors in the outfield. You may be surprised to know Dunn had a comparable amount of assists to Bruce at this point in his career. My point being, Bruce has a lot of talent but his numbers aren't as good as his talent. So don't make these guys out to be more than what they truly are. Do an honest evaluation and you may be surprised.

I chose only the top two hitters because it is the quickest, easiest way to show that the Reds talent isn't what many think it is. The second best hitter on the Reds is significantly worse than that hitter for the Cards and Brewers. And that makes a huge difference in the entire offensive line up.

 

Take the time to do a side by side comparison of the teams and I think if you look at it with an open mind and an honest judgment, you will see that the Reds are not better. Look at these Reds for what they are, not what you think they should be. For example, Jay Bruce is starting to look more and more like Adam Dunn - good numbers but very streaky. At this point in his career, Dunn was better than Bruce in every category except slightly behind Bruce in AVG and made a few more errors in the outfield. You may be surprised to know Dunn had a comparable amount of assists to Bruce at this point in his career. My point being, Bruce has a lot of talent but his numbers aren't as good as his talent. So don't make these guys out to be more than what they truly are. Do an honest evaluation and you may be surprised.

 

 

Based purely on offense you may be right, I might give a small edge to the Brewers or Cards, but you also have to figure in the defense, and the amount of ground the defense can cover, and I think the Reds have a huge edge in that department, despite the lack of defense the Reds displayed last night.

The Reds may have better talent but the margin is minuscule.

The Reds may have better talent but the margin is minuscule.

 

Just enough where the difference between managers might be enough to swing the division?