USC and UCLA to the Big 10!

[Jumper_Dad]

B1G has reportedly told Oregon and Washington they are done for now, pending a change in Notre Dame situation. 

[Tigerpride94]

Any ACC team that gets a call from SEC will leave. 3rd conference will be scraps left from ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12.

[Walter]

21 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Louisville in the SEC is going to be weird...

Louisville to the SEC would never happen for the same reasons UC to the B1G would never happen. 

SEC doesn't need that market. They already have a bigger brand with Kentucky. Same reason B1G doesn't need UC. Ohio State would throw their weight around to make sure it doesn't happen...and Kentucky would do the same. 

A 24 team super conference is the only chance either UC or Louisville has at getting in to the SEC or B1G... And in that set up, UC to the SEC is more likely. (This has been mentioned by The Athletic)

Louisville to the B1G would be the more likely scenario... They're in a terrible spot though with that GOR that lasts through 2035. 

Fun to discuss, but I think we end up seeing Notre Dame and/or Oregon/Washington to the B1G with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah added to the Big 12 to get both to 16 teams.

 

[Walter]

Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Florida State, and Virginia are the most likely candidates for any further SEC expansion... Don't see how it is realistic though when you consider what they would have to do to leave before 2035:

"For ACC schools to leave, they'd have to break both a contract with the ACC and a binding grant of rights. That's something that could cost in the neighborhood of $100 million for an exit fee and plenty of legal wrangling to escape the grant of rights. The billable hours would be mind-boggling and the tab unprecedented."

The above reason is the same reason why Oklahoma and Texas will be in the Big 12 until 2025... They have plenty of resources and money, but $100 mil is simply too much to leave early. 

[Walter]

[Walter]

[TheDeuce]

10 hours ago, Walter said:

Louisville to the SEC would never happen for the same reasons UC to the B1G would never happen. 

SEC doesn't need that market. They already have a bigger brand with Kentucky. Same reason B1G doesn't need UC. Ohio State would throw their weight around to make sure it doesn't happen...and Kentucky would do the same. 

A 24 team super conference is the only chance either UC or Louisville has at getting in to the SEC or B1G... And in that set up, UC to the SEC is more likely. (This has been mentioned by The Athletic)

Louisville to the B1G would be the more likely scenario... They're in a terrible spot though with that GOR that lasts through 2035. 

Fun to discuss, but I think we end up seeing Notre Dame and/or Oregon/Washington to the B1G with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah added to the Big 12 to get both to 16 teams.

 

Louisville to the SEC is much more likely than Louisville to the B1G because of academics. Neither league gains a new market by adding UofL.  

They won’t be in either conference unless we get to the two super power conferences scenario. 

[Walter]

26 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Louisville to the SEC is much more likely than Louisville to the B1G because of academics. Neither league gains a new market by adding UofL.  

They won’t be in either conference unless we get to the two super power conferences scenario. 

I personally think we are headed towards 20 team super conferences and then realignment will be finished. 

USA Today had an article mentioning the same and they came up with the following 4 conferences:

SEC

B1G

B12 (Add Duke, UNC, Cal, and one other to get to 20... Louisville?)

ACC/P12 Merger:

[Walter]

[Tigerpride94]

If you're not in one of the two super conferences then will fall behind the powers further. Recruiting will take a hit because best players will go to teams in the two super conferences. Only way would survive is if have access to playoff which I don't see happening. Commissioners that didn't vote for expanded playoffs are now reaping what they sowed. Maybe NIL will keep some players to go to the chump conferences but they will have to over pay to keep kids from going to super conference team.

[gchs_uk9]

4 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Louisville to the SEC is much more likely than Louisville to the B1G because of academics. Neither league gains a new market by adding UofL.  

They won’t be in either conference unless we get to the two super power conferences scenario. 

Let's not confuse the word "market" here (not you @TheDeuce, but to everyone else who might read that word). The realignment that took place between 2010-14 was all about adding televisions through cable and satellites. Schools like Rutgers (New York City) and Maryland (Washington, DC) were chosen because of their geography and access to viewers. With streaming and access from anywhere that is a non-issue now. Additions now are about prestige programs that people want to watch. USC and UCLA aren't appealing to the Big Ten because of California or the large population of LA; they are appealing because they are name brand programs that fans in the Big Ten and in other parts of the country want to watch play their own team. Any future additions to either the Big Ten or SEC will meet that single qualification and I'm sure Louisville does not meet it for either league.

[gchs_uk9]

2 hours ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Commissioners that didn't vote for expanded playoffs are now reaping what they sowed.

This! The leagues were so mad about the SEC taking Oklahoma and Texas that they ended up killing themselves by sticking it to the SEC on the playoff format. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey seemed interested in a playoff format that fit all leagues, even though the SEC was already dominating the existing one and would likely dominate any future playoff plan. Instead, the ACC (among some others) balked and now could be facing a situation where not only are they missing the playoffs, they might not even have access because of the loss of their own members.

[bugatti]

5 hours ago, Walter said:

Not a fan of this take because it takes two to tango. It’s not breaking news that TV is big business… but so are these conferences and member institutions. They can always say “no.”

[Tigerpride94]

Not surprised at all. Smart move.

[Walter]

On 7/2/2022 at 11:41 PM, bugatti said:

Not a fan of this take because it takes two to tango. It’s not breaking news that TV is big business… but so are these conferences and member institutions. They can always say “no.”

Sure. It does.... but TV partners are 100% controlling realignment since they're the ones providing the revenue for these conferences and institutions to operate the way some of them do .

See Texas A&M... They were very outspoken and vocal about being against Texas joining the SEC. But when it came down to it, the votes were unanimous because of the money involved.