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9-6-2016 CalPreps Ratings


15th Region
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1. Trinity

2. Belfry

3. Bowling Green

4. Simon Kenton

5. Scott County

6. Johnson Central

7. Male

8. Lafayatte

9. St. Xavier

10. Ryle

11. Greenwood

12. South Warren

13. Manual

14. CAL

15. Cooper

16. Christian Co

17. Danville

18. CovCath

19. Mayfield

20. McCracken Co

21. North Hardin

22. Ballard

23. PRP

24. Central Hardin

25. Corbin

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@ATLCats how are CALprep rankings generated? I don't have a big problem with them, but curious. Thanks!

 

I am not exactly sure, but they do some pretty cool stuff which I respect and typically makes them the most interesting rankings for entertainment value

 

Obviously it is a computer system but it does actually take into account a National Database (for example when CovCath beats Sycamore or Trinity beats Ensworth it has a tangible value). It also takes into account actual human input before the season which I like.

 

I may be way off but here is what I do know about these:

-There is some small form a historical bias. They actually track a "dynasty" rating for teams who have success over multiple years

- A very important component seems to be the inaugural pre-season rating which appears to take into account 1. The Previous Year's Season Results 2. The Previous Season's S.O.S and a an adjustment 3. Returning Starters and Coach's Feedback (which I love) 4. Starters/ Key Players Lost 5. Bonus points for D-1 talent returning

 

- Once they get whatever feedback they receive in the pre-season they then adjust their rankings for an initial Pre-Season Rank for every team across the country

 

- Each week the computer projects matchups and depending on the Final Score scores the results in relation to the computer matchup. It has parameters as well, which I like, that throws out impossible results or takes note of what it deems as upsets. For example if Bowling Green plays Logan County the computer may expect a n 80-0 win. Realistically this is not possible so win Bowling Green wins 49-0 it accounts for this and doesn't penalize Bowling Green. Same thing, if Greenwood goes on to finish with 6 straight losses and South Warren finishes 9-1 that upset might not hurt SW as much as the year goes as it will appear as an outlier.

 

- Each week it recalculates rankings and updates itself to continue projecting, gathering results, and ranking as such so that it "improves" like all CPU rankings do the more input it receives.

 

 

 

 

Now with that said, I stress that I don't take this overly serious beyond the entertainment aspect of it, especially this early in the year. Those initial rankings are imperfect because it is heavily relying on the previous year's results and I would say guessing that half the teams update with returning starters, etc occurs.

 

A prime example is Belfry right now. The CPU loves Belfry because Belfry was ranked so highly at the end of last year, and got bonus points for a ton of starters returning and all those D-1 players. Is Belfry really the #65 team in America? Highly doubtful. Is this ranking though going to give a more accurate picture of Belfry in week 10 than the Lit or Cantrell Ratings because it can actually assign a value to Knoxville Catholic, Cabell Midland, and the Cleveland team they are playing? Absolutely.

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