Top 10 NKY players

[Sir!]

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Great info. Where did you find these? Is the info easily available?

 

Current team stats on the KHSAA scoreboard for each team (except teams like Dunbar who don't post them). There's a single statewide stats leaders page on KHSAA also, but it's not as useful.

[wayoffsides]

Current team stats on the KHSAA scoreboard for each team (except teams like Dunbar who don't post them). There's a single statewide stats leaders page on KHSAA also, but it's not as useful.

 

Thanks. Looks pretty accurate for goals but may not be entirely complete in assists although certainly close. Thanks again.

[Yellow Card]

A rough approximation may be had by multiplying player points by average opponent Maher Scaled Score (MSR); a more precise adjustment by using the sum of the products of points in each game multiplied by respective opponent MSR (substitute team's average opponent MSR for out of state opponents). MSR gets more accurate as season progresses and MSR corrects pre-season bias.

 

Player = points * Avg Maher of Opp. = Maher Weighted Points

 

Litzler (CCH) = 20 points * 8.79 = 176

Liles (NCC) = 23 points * 7.38 = 170

Snow (Cooper) = 34 points * 3.34 = 113

Day (CCH) = 11 points * 8.79 = 97

Wend (Conner) = 20 points * 1.68 = 34

Sanders (St. Henry) = 17 points * 2.02 = 34

Morgan (Scott) = 27 * 0.35 = 9

 

Note: Others not computed because opponents average MSR was negative.

 

Nice idea!!! Well done.

 

I am very surprised by the Avg Maher score for the teams NCC has played. With playing the Jessamine's and Cov Latin I did not think they would have an average any where close to Cov Cath's.

[gameplayedright]

Sir, I applaud your for the time and thoughtfulness. This goes a long way to illustrate the actual true Top 10. And I agree with YC, very surprised at NCC's Avg Maher of Opp, positive this is correct?

 

The one thing I would add though is the Maher ranking does not take out of state, non-KY teams into the equation. Unless you somehow factored in the OH, IN, etc. teams, players on a team such as CCH are at a disadvantage. If you could factor in an Elder, Seven Hills, Summit would the CCH players rise even higher?

[Oldtimebaseball84]

....it identifies top scorers......

 

Defenders, however, allow the scorers to do what they do.

 

Ben Darpel for CovCath is one of the best shut down defenders I have ever seen.

[groinpull]

Nice idea!!! Well done.

 

I am very surprised by the Avg Maher score for the teams NCC has played. With playing the Jessamine's and Cov Latin I did not think they would have an average any where close to Cov Cath's.

 

Shows the weakness in the Maher rating system. Because they are out of state, neither Walnut Hills or East Central counts for CCH in the ratings. CCH plays Elder tonight and gets no credit from Maher for that (not that anyone is really all that worried about it). Still, this system at least provides some sort of accuracy to the stats and is better than nothing. If you are on a good team, with other good players and play a tough schedule, your stats will not be near the top because you are not the only option.

 

Scoring a bunch of goals and/or assists against overmatched opponents? Who cares?

[groinpull]

Sir, I applaud your for the time and thoughtfulness. This goes a long way to illustrate the actual true Top 10. And I agree with YC, very surprised at NCC's Avg Maher of Opp, positive this is correct?

 

The one thing I would add though is the Maher ranking does not take out of state, non-KY teams into the equation. Unless you somehow factored in the OH, IN, etc. teams, players on a team such as CCH are at a disadvantage. If you could factor in an Elder, Seven Hills, Summit would the CCH players rise even higher?

 

Exactly. A goal or two against Elder........what is the equivalent if you are playing Beechwood or Calvary? No offense to those teams but one goal vs an Elder or Summit is probably equal to 4 or 5, maybe more.

 

And as OTB points out, defenders don't have stats really unless you go by shutouts but again, level of competition is a factor.

[Yellow Card]

Sir, I applaud your for the time and thoughtfulness. This goes a long way to illustrate the actual true Top 10. And I agree with YC, very surprised at NCC's Avg Maher of Opp, positive this is correct?

 

The one thing I would add though is the Maher ranking does not take out of state, non-KY teams into the equation. Unless you somehow factored in the OH, IN, etc. teams, players on a team such as CCH are at a disadvantage. If you could factor in an Elder, Seven Hills, Summit would the CCH players rise even higher?

 

It looks like the average for NCC should only be around 4, East Jessamine and Cov Latin really brings their number down.

 

Exactly. A goal or two against Elder........what is the equivalent if you are playing Beechwood or Calvary? No offense to those teams but one goal vs an Elder or Summit is probably equal to 4 or 5, maybe more.

 

And as OTB points out, defenders don't have stats really unless you go by shutouts but again, level of competition is a factor.

 

There is an Ohio ranking on Maher, it has not been updated for this school year, these numbers are based upon where they finished last season. Based on the CCH/Walnut result, they might be fairly accurate.

 

Walnut Hills 5.51

Elder 4.73

Seven Hills 5.57

McNicholas 3.67

Summit 5.31

[gameplayedright]

It looks like the average for NCC should only be around 4, East Jessamine and Cov Latin really brings their number down.

 

 

There is an Ohio ranking on Maher, it has not been updated for this school year, these numbers are based upon where they finished last season. Based on the CCH/Walnut result, they might be fairly accurate.

 

Walnut Hills 5.51

Elder 4.73

Seven Hills 5.57

McNicholas 3.67

Summit 5.31

 

 

This makes way more sense.

YC have you run the new numbers for the NCC and CCH players (factoring in the Walnut Hills game)?

[groinpull]

I'm not sure what is meant by saying NCC's number should be around 4. Why is that? Are you saying it's shown wrong on the Maher site?

[soccerforlife]

Morgan is a very good player. Day is an excellent player. I've been watching these two play club together for many years. Morgan has some great tricks and skills. Day has some great tricks and skills, but with an added finesse and athletism built in. Now, if both these guys were on the same high school team... Wow.

 

No surprise to anyone that I don't completely agree with your opinion. As far as tricks and skill go, I believe they are both very technically gifted players. As for finesse I agree that Day has the edge on Morgan. As far as athletism goes I disagree with you, I too have watched them both and believe that they are pretty equal on this front as well. Morgan has incredible strength on and off the ball which is where I believe he has the edge over Day. When it all comes out in the wash they are both extremely gifted at exploiting their strengths on the field and therefore are both excellent players with different styles. They compliment each other when they are team mates and I know that they both admire and respect each other for their strengths.

[Yellow Card]

This makes way more sense.

YC have you run the new numbers for the NCC and CCH players (factoring in the Walnut Hills game)?

 

No, not for CCH, since the numbers I provided for OH squads are from the end of last season. I think the logic that Sir! is using makes sense, even if you throw in the 5.51 for WH versus the average that was used, it would only make about a 1/2 point difference.

 

I'm not sure what is meant by saying NCC's number should be around 4. Why is that? Are you saying it's shown wrong on the Maher site?

 

I believe the numbers on Maher are correct, just an error in calculating, here is what I see for NCC.

 

Scott Co. 5.18

W. Jess 5.20

E. Jess 1.02

Cov Lat -5.69

St Henry 9.35

Brossart 9.45

 

Averages out to 4.08

[Sir!]

On Maher Adjustment:

 

1). NCC average opponent through last Maher update (8/30) was 7.38. Maybe it'll come down as most recent games are factored in, but I think the strength of schedule only takes into account the games played through the last update.

 

2). I used CCH KY opponent's MRS for CCH out of state games. I don't think as yet Maher can be used for KY/OH direct comparison. That made goals against Walnut Hills worth over 8, as opposed to the 4 or 5 you'd get if you substituted in the OH MRS numbers (i.e., between the two choices I erred on the side of making those OH goals worth more, rather than less).

 

3). If you don't agree with the approach, thats fine, I don't think it's perfect by any means, just one way to get a sense of how one Maher's objective and quantitative (if not accurate) assessment of opponent strength affects an assessment of scoring potency. We should probably just go back to the simple version where goals against Germany and CCH are worth 10, goals against anyone on CCHs schedule are worth 9, and nothing else really matters.

 

4). I agree that scoring potency has nothing to do with ability to defend, though I would have thought that's kind of obvious. That's one of the reasons that I added the statistic showing CCH only allowing 4 goals thus far (and I believe Rome only 2).

 

5). If you want to PM me and give me your favorite player/son's name, I can torture the numbers until they confess that he is a prolific scorer. I don't have enough to work with for stats for defenders. To paraphrase Mark Twain, "there are liars, damned liars, and statisticians."

[Sir!]

Great formula.....too bad there isn't a way to assign a number into the formula for strength of their own team...ie supporting cast.......A "stronger" team can give you more scoring or assist chances by having players in the right position........if you have to do it all yourself, then it is more impressive...

 

....also, if there was a way to assign playing time percentage, as well. That way you could apply the apples to apples over the same number of minutes.

 

just thinking out loud.....

 

I thought about using a factor the multiplied by the opponent strength and divided by the scorer's team strength for that reason, but I think there's a plus and minus to being on a weaker team. The minus is that you HAVE to do it largely yourself. The plus is that you GET to do it all yourself ("...get it to the Italian").

[Yellow Card]

On Maher Adjustment:

 

1). NCC average opponent through last Maher update (8/30) was 7.38. Maybe it'll come down as most recent games are factored in, but I think the strength of schedule only takes into account the games played through the last update. [/Quote]

 

As you can see in my comments above, I actually did the math, I did not realize you had just taken the number straight from Maher until I saw your last post.... my apologies. What is ironic... I only calculated the first 3 on your listing... CCH, NCC, and Cooper. The long math works for CCH and Cooper but the number is way off for NCC. This makes me think that there is something wrong with the Maher calculations for the Breds.