Possible Significant Winter Weather This weekend.

Parts of Kentucky could receive significant winter precipitation accumulation this week. Both freezing rain and snow accumulations will be possible. For now, it looks like the main event will start late Saturday night and last through Monday night.

 

 

 

These totals will more than likely change so don't get wrapped up in the totals right now. Some could receive upwards of around 6 inches of snow.

 

 

 

I will update in the morning.

As I stated yesterday there will be some fluctuation in the snowfall accumulation forecast. This morning GFS is quite different than last night's. Here is what it is showing this morning. Once again this far out from the event, we will see fluctuations in the amount of possible snowfall.

 

 

I should be able to start getting a good read on this weekend's possible weather by tomorrow.

We have the makings of a possible winter storm hitting Kentucky this upcoming weekend. It is still up in the air about how much snow and freezing rain some may receive. The models are having trouble getting a handle on this possible winter storm. So it may be another day before I can predict with any confidence the winter precipitation heading our way. Let me show everyone what I'm seeing this morning.

 

First the NAM model. It doesn't go as far into the future as the GFS and Canadian models so Sunday is at the very end of this mornings run. The NAM is showing more of a snow event than a freezing rain accumulation event as the following maps show

 

NAM Snow

 

 

NAM Freezing Rain

 

 

 

The GFS is going back and forth on what type of event we could see. Last night it was showing more snow than ice. This morning it has flipped back to more of an icing event.

 

GFS Snow

 

 

GFS Freezing Rain

 

 

The Canadian kind of agrees with the NAM. The Canadian model is only updated every 12 hours so this is from last nights run. The new one won't be released until later this morning. One thing of note, it kind of agrees with this morning NAM run.

 

Canadian Snow

 

 

 

Canadian Freezing Rain

 

 

As everyone can see we have the makings of a major winter storm coming through Kentucky. My advice is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I will update later today after I get off work. I may try earlier during my lunch break if any new information comes to my attention.

 

Everyone have a great Thursday.

Edited December 6, 2018 by nWo

This always happens when I plan a roadtrip..... lol

I've just looked at the latest NAM run for midday. I'm starting to get a little concerned about this possible weekend's winter precipitation event. The NAM has been consistent the past couple of runs. While the GFS and Canadian have been going back and forth. I'm not ready to predict any accumulations as of yet but as I stated earlier but my concern is growing. I want to see a couple more model runs before I start posting my forecast totals. Anyone planning road trips through East Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina should really pay attention to the weather this weekend.

 

If the modeling trend continues I may go into a Winter Weather Threat Mode this evening or by early Friday morning. Keep checking back for updates.

Hey @nWo, bring that snow a little further north. I'll take 2 feet of it in Alexandria

NWS hourly projections have Somerset getting 4" Sat/Sun/Mon.

NWS hourly projections have Somerset getting 4" Sat/Sun/Mon.

Well if the modeling trend continues that I've been keeping an eye on and the storm system keeps the northerly track it has been showing 4 inches may be on the low end.

Hey @nWo, bring that snow a little further north. I'll take 2 feet of it in Alexandria

The storm system, for now, seems to be moving towards a more northerly track but as of now, NKY is not looking at much snow.

Well if the modeling trend continues that I've been keeping an eye on and the storm system keeps the northerly track it has been showing 4 inches may be on the low end.

 

Wow!!!

This storm is still coming together so the models are fluctuating back and forth on the possible freezing rain/snow accumulation totals. Parts of Kentucky will receive some type of wintry precipitation this weekend. The following maps are from the Weather Prediction Center's GEFS Probability of Precipitation. Now they don't say how much snow/freezing rain accumulations there will be just the probability of that type of wintry precipitation falling

 

The first one is about snowfall probability percentages. It shows southeast of a line from around Hopkinsville to Maysville anywhere between 50 to 90% chance of snow falling in that area. The chances increase the further southeast you move from that line.

 

 

The second one is for the probability of freezing rain. Along and around the same line everyone can see from a 20-40% chance of freezing rain falling.

 

 

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This map shows the probability of receiving 4 inches are greater.

 

 

This is so everyone can prepare the way they see fit. Check back in the morning. I may be able to give my first call on snow/ice accumulations. More than likely I will go into a Winter Storm Threat Mode by then.

 

 

Have a great Thursday evening

Hey @nWo, bring that snow a little further north. I'll take 2 feet of it in Alexandria

 

I'll PM you my address and you can come shovel it for me.

As of this morning, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system. It is still in the process of forming so the models are having a tough time on predicting what this system will do and the track it will take. I will wait until the later model runs come out today before I start any predictions.

 

The NAM is predicting a little more southerly track than yesterday. That could mean a big hit for parts of southeast Kentucky snow-wise. At the same time, it is showing some good freezing rain accumulations west of I-75 along the Tennessee border. The GFS is showing the storm missing Kentucky entirely. So everyone can see we still have a little ways to go before we can get a handle on how this storm will affect Kentucky.

 

Check back for updates later today.

TV guys are now saying that it will all slide south of us.

TV guys are now saying that it will all slide south of us.

The latest GFS and NAM runs are showing that also. I finally found a site where I can get the European Model(ECMWF) It is supposed to be more accurate than either the GFS and NAM. Most sites with the European Model wants you to pay for it. this one is free. It is still showing southeast Kentucky getting some snow. Also, I just received a text from the National Weather Service about a conference call for Southern Kentucky this afternoon. So some parts of Kentucky are not out of the woods just yet.