article Strength of Schedule Case Study - Ohio County vs. Henderson County

We are at the point in the season when some teams have good records and are wondering why they aren't getting credit. Meanwhile, we have teams with 1 win who are considered a top 15, even a top 10, team in their class. There has been some discussion about this in the rankings threads this week. A quick glance at a 5-0 team versus a 1-4 team says the 5-0 team is going to crush them. But there is often more to the story. The big question we should always ask is who have these teams played? Who has the 5-0 team beaten and who has the 1-4 team lost to?

I haven't looked closely up and down the complete schedule to see how many games we have this week where the team with a much worse record should actually be the favorite to win. I will let everyone else share some of those other games in this thread. There is one game I will look at here as a case study on strength of schedule - 6A Ohio County (5-0) at 6A Henderson County (1-4).

Ohio County is going to crush them, right? I don't think so. A closer look at the schedules tells us Ohio County has played a very weak schedule. It is by far the weakest schedule of any team in 6A. In fact, only 2 teams in classes 4A-6A have played a weaker schedule. True, Ohio County fans might say, but we are easily beating those teams with only one game being close, a 40-38 win over 2A McClean County. Unfortunately though, McClean County only has 1 win on the year. So that close win was over a 2A team who is 1-4.

Okay, but still, Henderson County is 1-4. Surely they are no match for an undefeated Ohio County. Wrong. Henderson County's strength of schedule is #10 in 6A. If we look at those losses to tough opponents, Henderson County was competitive in all those games except one. Only one team has beaten them by more than 2 touchdowns, and that Indiana team is comparable to Bowling Green.

What should we expect in this showdown between a 5-0 team and a 1-4 team? I haven't studied any film. I can't name one player on either team. Just looking at strength of schedules and the outcomes of both teams in the games played so far, I am going to predict 1-4 Henderson County beats undefeated Ohio County 35-14.

Could Ohio County win? Sure. Strength of schedule isn't an infallible indicator of how good teams are. A team can have a good record against a terrible strength of schedule and be a good team. They can be good enough to get an upset win because team confidence can have a big impact on a game - but it doesn't happen very often. Almost always when you have this wide a difference in strength of schedule it matters much more in predicting team strength and a game's outcome than the actual win loss records. There you go Ohio County. Prove us wrong. Show us you are much better than your strength of schedule and results indicate.

Are there other games like this happening this week where the team with a much worse record is probably going to win because their poor record is against a very strong strength of schedule? Post them here and let's talk. Now that we are halfway into the season and strength of schedule is pretty clear, I am interested in seeing how teams with bad records and poor SOS fair against teams with better records and poor SOS.

@Voice of Reason,

This is a really good thread! And you are spot on to this one, as I too think Henderson County wins this week. And for Henderson County to have the #10 Strength of Schedule is really strong to me.

The only other one that comes to my mind in this range would be 2A Todd County Central is undefeated at 4-0. They haven't played anybody at all really. They have 2A Hancock County on the road this week. Hancock played your beloved Ohio County Eagles on the first of September and 6A Daviess County on the 8th. So I see this setting up the same way.

BUT unlike the Ohio County scenario, I really like the Todd County scenario, as they did not win a game last year. High school football is tough enough with all that is required (off season weights, spring practice, 7on7, etc as it never ends). Kinda pulling for Todd County this week...

I think a stronger strength of schedule helps a team learn how to play. Several years ago I followed Iroquois. Their schedule one year consisted of teams like Southern, Fern Creek, Fairdale, DeSales etc. They had a game that year with Seneca who had a worse record that Iroquois but had played teams like Male, Manual and St. X. What on paper should have been a fairly even ball game became a blow out for Seneca due in large part, in my opinion, to their players being better schooled by having played X, Male and Manual, all of whom beat them.

Other games this weekend in which the team with the worse/losing record could beat a team with a winning record:

Atherton (3-2) at Fern Creek (2-3)

Franklin-Simpson (2-3) at Glasgow (4-1)

Madison Southern (3-2) at Pulaski County (2-3)

You hit the nail on the head with this post voice of reason. Henderson won 48-7 and I'm well aware that these kinds of blowout games happen every Friday. But their was a large percentage of people who actually picked Ohio Co. to win based off the difference in records between the two. The strength of schedule or lack thereof I didn't hear talked about very much. I heard some mentions made of how Ohio Co.'s schedule was a combined -13 (meaning they accumulated a -1 rating for every class smaller of a team they played) but to me that didn't tell the story. You can have a -whatever schedule and still have a tough schedule if your playing smaller schools like Mayfield, Caldwell Co., etc but that was far from the case for Ohio Co. they were playing smaller schools that to put it bluntly were terrible. I don't know how this can prepare you to be competitive come district time.

You hit the nail on the head with this post voice of reason. Henderson won 48-7 and I'm well aware that these kinds of blowout games happen every Friday. But their was a large percentage of people who actually picked Ohio Co. to win based off the difference in records between the two. The strength of schedule or lack thereof I didn't hear talked about very much. I heard some mentions made of how Ohio Co.'s schedule was a combined -13 (meaning they accumulated a -1 rating for every class smaller of a team they played) but to me that didn't tell the story. You can have a -whatever schedule and still have a tough schedule if your playing smaller schools like Mayfield, Caldwell Co., etc but that was far from the case for Ohio Co. they were playing smaller schools that to put it bluntly were terrible. I don't know how this can prepare you to be competitive come district time.

I was on the other side of this cols51. I knew there was a SOS difference. Didn't take much research for me to see it. I did pick Ohio County not based on their record, but the fact that even though they had played weaker comp, they have a 3 year starter at QB who was doing it with ease. Seemed like the time was ripe for the Eagles to get the win. I definitely whiffed with my prediction....

I'm not shocked that Henderson did win, but the way they blew them out was surprising.

October 5 is going to be another one. Logan County (6-0) will host Hopkinsville (1-4 going into next week's game vs. Madisonville), who has played a superior schedule. Interesting to see how that one will turn out. Looking forward to a good game. Hopefully I'll be there to give updates!!

So long Eagles. It was nice while it lasted.

Henderson could have scored 80 if they wanted to. When you're making rankings you have to look past records.