Obama's claim

[ladiesbballcoach]

Heard a claim that Obama makes and while I can find it in hard print, I have yet to find it online to provide a link.

 

Basically his claim is that he is the ONLY candidate that can redraw the political map. He guarantees that African American turnout will increase 30% minimum with him as the candidate. Young people % goes up 25 to 30 % with him as the candidate. Thus, stats in teh outh will be put into play that haven't been in play since LBJ.

 

I have long held that you have to win the south to win the election. The last non-southern or non-California President is whom? It has been awhile.

 

The South has turned into a conservative, Republican stronghold. Can Obama's race turned the tide for the Democrats and bring them the South again?

 

Iowa has shown that he can draw the votes of whites. 57% of the under 30 crowd voted for Obama in Iowa.

 

Can he deliver the south to the Democrats?

[HHSDad]

"I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," Obama said at the time. "I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 per cent around the country, minimum. Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 per cent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."

 

http://www.thestar.com/News/World/article/290974

[ladiesbballcoach]

Thanks Dad. Now your opinion. Can he redraw the political map as an AA candidate?

[MoreheadEagle]

Unfortunately, with the exceptions of maybe Florida, and Virginia no Democrat will win the south. Especially a black guy named Barrak Hussein Obama. There are enough e-mails circulating around among evangelicals that state he is a manchurian candidate for muslim extremists and enough people who are one issue voters that he won't win. No Dem will. The country's political map will look a lot like 2004 with Ohio going blue. IMO.

[HHSDad]

ME makes a good point. For every black southern vote Obama gains, he'll lose a white southern democrat.

[ladiesbballcoach]

ME makes a good point. For every black vote Obama gains, he'll lose a white democrat.

 

But they weren't winning the white vote anyhow. His point is that he will be pulling in the black votes that will bring the state into play that they were losing anyhow because the Dems are losing the states anyhow.

[MoreheadEagle]

Every deep souther state that doesn't have a lot of immigrants from other states will go red. FL, VA, and maybe, just maybe GA, might go blue this time. I think Ohio and some of the midwestern states go blue but the south is gone. Adding any of the states I mentioned would redraw the map.

 

Obama also energized the youth and first-time voters. http://www.rawstory.com/news/mochila/New_caucus_goers_boost_Obama_in_Iow_01032008.html

[halfback20]

ME makes a good point. For every black vote Obama gains, he'll lose a white democrat.

 

It depends on who the Republican candidate as to whether I'd vote for Barack or not. If it's Huckabee....Obama has my vote.

[HHSDad]

It depends on who the Republican candidate as to whether I'd vote for Barack or not. If it's Huckabee....Obama has my vote.

I should have made it clear that I was only speaking of southern votes.

[cshs81]

There is no question that Obama is correct in his assessment of his ability to get new voters to the polls. We saw that in Iowa.

 

Regarding the South, it will be interesting if Obama is the candidate. If Rudy would be the Republican candidate, how does he play in the south? He's not exactly an "evangelical."

 

This will, hands down, be one of the more interesting election years in quite a long time.

[TheFrontRowFan]

There are enough e-mails circulating around among evangelicals that state he is a manchurian candidate for muslim extremists and enough people who are one issue voters that he won't win. .

 

That's a sad commentary in and of itself.

 

Obama can't win the South? I'm not so sure. Many southern states are made up of large numbers of African Americans. Just because there are those mullet wearing, confederate flag waving rednecks spread across there - doesnt mean too much. Obama just won Iowa which is, as Jack Cafferty calls it, the whitest place south of the North Pole.

[Hatz]

Unfortunately, with the exceptions of maybe Florida, and Virginia no Democrat will win the south. Especially a black guy named Barrak Hussein Obama. There are enough e-mails circulating around among evangelicals that state he is a manchurian candidate for muslim extremists and enough people who are one issue voters that he won't win. No Dem will. The country's political map will look a lot like 2004 with Ohio going blue. IMO.

 

A Democrat would have more chance in Florida than Virginia. Virginia has not gone Dem in a Presidential vote since LBJ over Goldwater.

 

Florida almost went Gore.

[AcesFull]

Obama cannot win in the South, not because he is black, but because he is an extreme liberal. He would lose the South for the same reason white liberal Democrats Kerry and Gore lost it. Obama has been a US Senator for two years, much of which time he has spent preparing to run for president. His record consists mostly of his time in the Illinois Legislature and that record will not appeal to most Americans who bother to acquaint themselves with it.

 

Because Obama, like Kerry before him, cannot be elected running on his liberal record and his "present" votes on tough issues, he will run on promises and appeal to voters' emotions.

 

Obama and his supporters will eventually play the race card. The Obama campaign will claim that they are fighting white racism in the South, when his real obstacles there will be his liberal voting record and his naiveté on foreign policy and national security.

 

It is going to be interesting when Hillary and her proxies in the media begin playing the race card first. I look for the National Enquirer and other Clinton allies to break stories that the Clinton campaign will condemn. Hillary will employ the same kind of smear tactics against Obama as the Clintons used against Bill's critics during the impeachment process. Larry Flynt may even take a shot or two at Obama.

 

Look for the Enquirer, Newsweek, TIme or some other Friend of Bill to make Obama's church an issue in the near future (as they should). I would have a little more (but not much more) respect for the Clintons if they attacked political opponents more directly. but that is not their MO.

[cshs81]

Obama cannot win in the South, not because he is black, but because he is an extreme liberal. He would lose the South for the same reason white liberal Democrats Kerry and Gore lost it. Obama has been a US Senator for two years, much of which time he has spent preparing to run for president. His record consists mostly of his time in the Illinois Legislature and that record will not appeal to most Americans who bother to acquaint themselves with it.

 

Because Obama, like Kerry before him, cannot be elected running on his liberal record and his "present" votes on tough issues, he will run on promises and appeal to voters' emotions.

 

Obama and his supporters will eventually play the race card. The Obama campaign will claim that they are fighting white racism in the South, when his real obstacles there will be his liberal voting record and his naiveté on foreign policy and national security.

 

It is going to be interesting when Hillary and her proxies in the media begin playing the race card first. I look for the National Enquirer and other Clinton allies to break stories that the Clinton campaign will condemn. Hillary will employ the same kind of smear tactics against Obama as the Clintons used against Bill's critics during the impeachment process. Larry Flynt may even take a shot or two at Obama.

 

Look for the Enquirer, Newsweek, TIme or some other Friend of Bill to make Obama's church an issue in the near future (as they should). I would have a little more (but not much more) respect for the Clintons if they attacked political opponents more directly. but that is not their MO.

 

I agree that his liberal leanings will be more of a problem in the south than his race.

 

I disagree that we will see Obama playing the race card. Will some of his supporters? Maybe.

 

I'm extremely interested to see how the Clinton attack machine rolls if Obama continues to have success.

[MoreheadEagle]

That's a sad commentary in and of itself.

 

Obama can't win the South? I'm not so sure. Many southern states are made up of large numbers of African Americans. Just because there are those mullet wearing, confederate flag waving rednecks spread across there - doesnt mean too much. Obama just won Iowa which is, as Jack Cafferty calls it, the whitest place south of the North Pole.

 

No Democrat will win the south unfortunately. The Bible-Belt is lost to Dems b/c people are one issue voters and will believe anything. If Clinton is the nominee there could be a rumor that she eats puppies while hosting lesbian orgies and people will believe it. A Dem could win some Midwestern states b/c of issues like farm issues and the war. If I were the DNC chair I'd go after Florida, Georgia, and Virginia (which elected a Dem senator and looks to elect another) and forget the rest of the South.