Winter to return to Kentucky

[nWo]

Enjoy your weekend's springlike weather, as winter is expected to return to Kentucky early next week. Over the weekend, a weak area of low pressure is expected to move from the U.S. west coast towards Kentucky. As it approaches the Texas/New Mexico area, it will begin to strengthen and turn northeast late Sunday or early Monday morning. Precipitation will begin as rain, but as the low strengthens, arctic air from the Great Lakes area will wrap around it, turning it from rain to snow. Monday's lows will begin to drop, and by early Tuesday, temperatures will drop into the mid-20s. Any potential snow accumulation will depend on when the low moves toward the Texas/New Mexico area; it will begin to intensify and turn northeast late Sunday or early Monday morning. The precipitation will begin as rain, but as the low intensifies, arctic air will encircle the low from the Great Lakes area, changing the precipitation from rain to snow. Monday's lows will be in the low 20s by early Tuesday. Any potential snow accumulations will depend on timing and the low's precise track.

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

Updated forecast: A low-pressure system that is expected to bring precipitation on Monday is expected to track through southern and eastern Kentucky; the initial precipitation will be all rain. The only changes from my previous forecast are the small northward jog of the track and the amount of cold air that will wrap around the low. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, but as the weekend progresses, we will have a better idea of what to expect. As of this post, not enough cold air will be pushed into Kentucky for everyone to see snow, but some could still get some accumulation.

 

 

[OlDog75]

OH JOY!

 

[PP1]

4 hours ago, nWo said:

As of this post, not enough cold air will be pushed into Kentucky for everyone to see snow, but some could still get some accumulation.

 

 

 

 

I must admit, I am not the best at reading your maps. In fact, without you to interpret, I would be studying the, for hours before reaching a conclusion. It appears though that if any part of Ky receives snow, it will be north of Lexington?

[Voice of Reason]

On 2/7/2024 at 8:43 AM, nWo said:

Enjoy your weekend's springlike weather, as winter is expected to return to Kentucky early next week. Over the weekend, a weak area of low pressure is expected to move from the U.S. west coast towards Kentucky. As it approaches the Texas/New Mexico area, it will begin to strengthen and turn northeast late Sunday or early Monday morning. Precipitation will begin as rain, but as the low strengthens, arctic air from the Great Lakes area will wrap around it, turning it from rain to snow. Monday's lows will begin to drop, and by early Tuesday, temperatures will drop into the mid-20s. Any potential snow accumulation will depend on when the low moves toward the Texas/New Mexico area; it will begin to intensify and turn northeast late Sunday or early Monday morning. The precipitation will begin as rain, but as the low intensifies, arctic air will encircle the low from the Great Lakes area, changing the precipitation from rain to snow. Monday's lows will be in the low 20s by early Tuesday. Any potential snow accumulations will depend on timing and the low's precise track.

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting how on the last map, the patterns over Canada do not move or change. Just sitting there. What is happening in that deep red area in Canada?

[nWo]

2 hours ago, PP1 said:

I must admit, I am not the best at reading your maps. In fact, without you to interpret, I would be studying the, for hours before reaching a conclusion. It appears though that if any part of Ky receives snow, it will be north of Lexington?

That's the way it looked this morning. There will more than likely be changes as we get closer. 

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Interesting how on the last map, the patterns over Canada do not move or change. Just sitting there. What is happening in that deep red area in Canada?

If you are talking about the 500mb Height Anomaly map. The red represents positive pressure or high-pressure areas. When you are under this area, temperatures are usually above average. The deeper the shade, the higher the pressure is and  the more above-average your temperature could be. It's just the opposite under the blue areas. 

[nWo]

A clear picture of possible snow accumulations for late Monday into Tuesday morning is starting to take shape; temperatures cold enough for snow look to be confined north of I-64, and the bulk of the accumulations are expected to occur from Louisville to the Cincinnati/NKY area; south of this area will see mostly dusting of snow.

Kentucky will be lucky to escape this one, unless there is a significant shift in the prediction between now and the event. The low is still expected to strengthen and might become a Nor' Eastern for the New England region, but it is not expected to acquire intensity as quickly as previously believed.

I will go ahead and offer my first estimate for potential snow accumulations: 1-2" is anticipated for the Louisville region; the Cincinnati/NKY area appears to have the biggest accumulations; at this point, 4-8" are likely.

 

 

 

 

[sportsfan41]

6 hours ago, nWo said:

A clear picture of possible snow accumulations for late Monday into Tuesday morning is starting to take shape; temperatures cold enough for snow look to be confined north of I-64, and the bulk of the accumulations are expected to occur from Louisville to the Cincinnati/NKY area; south of this area will see mostly dusting of snow.

Kentucky will be lucky to escape this one, unless there is a significant shift in the prediction between now and the event. The low is still expected to strengthen and might become a Nor' Eastern for the New England region, but it is not expected to acquire intensity as quickly as previously believed.

I will go ahead and offer my first estimate for potential snow accumulations: 1-2" is anticipated for the Louisville region; the Cincinnati/NKY area appears to have the biggest accumulations; at this point, 4-8" are likely.

 

 

 

 

Is that actually predicted snow accumulation or snow fall?  Just wasn't surr how much would actually stick up here with the warm weather we had this week. 

[nWo]

25 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Is that actually predicted snow accumulation or snow fall?  Just wasn't surr how much would actually stick up here with the warm weather we had this week. 

This is just a preliminary outlook. It will change and probably go down. With possible snowfall rates of 1/2 to 1" per hour, it wouldn't take long to start to accumulate, even with the warm weather. The 06z run of the GFS has risen to the high end of my prediction, but don't take just one individual run to make predictions. They can change between runs.

[nWo]

The heaviest snow accumulations have moved further north than yesterday, and there is a slight difference in the three models I am using this morning. The NAM is still coming in with the highest totals. This is the second call for possible snow accumulations. As I mentioned in my previous post, I expected the totals to lower slightly.

In the Cincinnati/NKY area, I am now projecting 2-4"; there is a chance for 6-8" just north of Cincinnati.

 

 

 

[sportsfan41]

I'm thinking this thing ends up taking the north of the Ohio River route that NKY usually misses out on snow from.  It ends up being a dusting to an inch because we've seen this scenario so many times before. 

[nWo]

1 hour ago, sportsfan41 said:

I'm thinking this thing ends up taking the north of the Ohio River route that NKY usually misses out on snow from.  It ends up being a dusting to an inch because we've seen this scenario so many times before. 

 

[sportsfan41]

8 minutes ago, nWo said:

 

Ha, I said that and then all of the models shifted south. Now it's a question of whether the cold air keeps the moisture to the south it seems. Wild @nWo

[nWo]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Ha, I said that and then all of the models shifted south. Now it's a question of whether the cold air keeps the moisture to the south it seems. Wild @nWo

Ha Ha, I know how you feel. The 18z NAM now shows the snow going straight through southcentral and central Kentucky. This morning, it was showing snow along the Ohio River. I'm waiting for the 18z run of the GFS and ICON to be issued later today to see what it shows. They were both showing the heaviest snow north of Cincinnati. I am really interested to see what it shows. I want to see if it brings the snow back towards the south. 

[sportsfan41]

1 hour ago, nWo said:

Ha Ha, I know how you feel. The 18z NAM now shows the snow going straight through southcentral and central Kentucky. This morning, it was showing snow along the Ohio River. I'm waiting for the 18z run of the GFS and ICON to be issued later today to see what it shows. They were both showing the heaviest snow north of Cincinnati. I am really interested to see what it shows. I want to see if it brings the snow back towards the south. 

What time does that come out?