All-hazards severe potential will expand across a large portion of the central U.S. There is still some uncertainty in timing and intensity of the upper trough. Nevertheless, a broad warm sector is expected to develop from eastern portions of the southern Plains toward the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley through the   afternoon, and eastward to the Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity by evening/overnight. Intense southwesterly mid/upper flow will overlap  the warm sector as a cold front tracks east/southeast. The severe  threat could end up taking a bi-modal (two distinct areas) character, with an area of  enhanced potential focused near a strong surface low over the Iowa/Illinois  vicinity, and another area focused further south toward the Mid-South. A 30% chance this far in advance shows the Storm Prediction Center is expecting something.

Potentially intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will be the main hazards with this activity.

Widespread, regional episode of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday. An intense mid/upper trough is forecast to move eastward across the Plains to the central U.S. on Friday. Conditions will favor a fast-moving squall line shifting across the Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South toward the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Kentucky west of I-65 under a level 3 Enhanced Risk for severe storms. A level 2 Slight Risk Area extends eastward to just east of I-75. A level 1 Marginal Risk Area covers the rest of Kentucky.

 

I have a couple of trees that are just hanging on by a thread since the wind storms 3 weeks ago. Every time I see potential winds coming our way I just hold my breath that the trees hold on until the tree service can get them on the ground. I'll be watching this threat closely.

The NAM is showing some big doings for now. It appears that the storms won't reach Kentucky until Friday evening into the nighttime hours. This is what it is showing. Everyone should be going over their emergency action plan. Also, make sure you have some way that would wake you up and get warnings if issued in your area. The period covered is from 8 pm EDT Friday to 8 am EDT Saturday.