Frederick Douglass (14-0) vs Bowling Green (12-2)

5A State Championship                                         

The Broncos of Frederick Douglass (FD) will make about a 20-minute drive across Lexington to Kroger Field to meet the Purples of Bowling Green (BG), who will make about a 2.5-hour drive northeast to Lexington.  Frederick Douglass has only been a school since 2017 but had significant success over that time going 69-9 in their 6 seasons to date.  VERY Impressive.  On top of that, this marks their 3^rd 5A Championship game in the last 4 years, only falling to a very good Owensboro team at Rash Stadium in the Semi-Final Round in 2020 or this would be 4 straight State Finals.  Also very impressive.

For the Purples, the decade beginning in 2011 through 2020 couldn’t have gone a whole lot better for them winning 6 State Championships (11, 12, 13, 15, 16, and 20) during this timeframe, plus an additional Regional Title in 2019 and District Titles in 2014 and 2017.  Turning the corner proved problematic as a tough 6-6 campaign in 2021 was just cold water in the shower for a team that hadn’t experienced a hot water heater outage for roughly 20 years.

Frederick Douglass

The Broncos are just loaded this season.  They have D1 guys fallin out of their pockets with UK bound Ty Bryant and Auburn bound Jamarrion Harkless only 2 of many Broncos who will suit up on Saturdays.  Their stats are remarkable gaining roughly 4,000 yards offense while giving up roughly 1,200 (through the Woodford County game).  That’s a rough average of gaining 325 vs giving up 100 yards per game.  You’re going to win a lot of game with those stats.  I asked some of the Broncos faithful early in the year their weak spot and they alluded to the play of JR QB Cole Carpenter.  But Carpenter has been rock solid throwing at just better than a 60% clip in 171 attempts with 1,600 yards, 20 TDs vs only 3 INTs.  Very impressive.  The Broncos run just a bit more than they pass and their top 3 RBs are really electric with TJ Horton (641 yards and 14 TDs), Davaun Hart (500 yards and 12 TDs) and Ty Bryant (350 yards and 10 TDs).  And they aren’t even the Broncos best unit IMO.

Their defense is just a shut down defense only allowing 61 points on the year (prior to Owensboro) and only 6 to Boyle County at Boyle County.  More than impressive.  JR LB Darion Neal leads the team with 56 tackles more than 20 clear of the next Bronco.  Impressive.  But there are 12 Broncos with between 32 and 17 tackles on the year.  Meaning they can all tackle and from all 3 levels.  SR DB Isaiah Kenney is a ball hawk in the secondary with 5 picks this season with 101 return yards and 2 pick 6s!  Super impressive. 

Bowling Green

The Purples honestly haven’t gotten as many benefits of the doubt this season as they usually do, likely all stemming from that 6-6 2021 campaign and “what have you done for me lately” keyboard mafia.  The Purples weren’t that impressive out of the gate defeating a solid but not shiny North Hardin squad 23-14; beat struggling McCracken County; beat poor offensive play calling PRP; overwhelmed Hoptown; committed too many turnovers against a very good Boyle County team falling 35-21.  Then on the trip down in Nashville, found another gear, was down all game, but kept fighting; got the ball back with about a minute 20 in the game and drove the field and went for one of the best 2-point conversions in Purples regular season history.  That was a turning point IMO.  From there, they battled a strong South Warren team before their wheels fell off and had good traction all game against a better than you think Greenwood club.  They handled Christian County without issue and went to Louisville and got destroyed by St Xavier 31-0.  But the Purples, to their credit, used that game to get better and they certainly have - outscoring their 4 playoff opponents 168-27.  Impressive.  BG is a balanced, dynamic offense with a senior-laden Oline.  Their defense has gotten better every week since the Greenwood game.  Lot to like about this BG team.  And the BG Coaches deserve a lot of credit for guiding this group to be on the doorstep to a State Championship.

State Championship Game Preview

For FD, they usually get flak from their schedule (having to play so many Lexington teams) and not winning the big game.  They lost to a destined Michael Mayer CovCath team in 2019 and lost to a destined senior loaded South Warren team in 2021 (and tripped on the Rash Stadium ghosts in 2020 in the Semi’s).

But I have said a couple times now that I think this is FD’s year.  They are a very complete team.  They are playing basically at home (in Lexington) and should have a big crowd on their side.  They are strong offensively and defensively.

For the Purples, you are playing on “House Money”.  You are coming off a 6-6 season.  NO ONE expects BG to win this game.  They are playing as well as they have played all year.  BG has an offense that if clicking can cause FD problems; throw in a few turnovers and who knows.

I expect FD to win this game; they have been the favorites since the pre-season and feel all the pressure is on them.  But I love my team and believe in them.  I am picking them here and only want them to go out and give it their all.  I think they will.  I think it will be a great game.  Congratulations on both teams getting here!  Go Purples!

Records don’t matter in this game. Purples have the athletes and the linemen to beat Douglass, just gotta execute. 
 

BG: 36

FD: 24

1 hour ago, PhenomxX said:

Records don’t matter in this game. Purples have the athletes and the linemen to beat Douglass, just gotta execute. 
 

BG: 36

FD: 24

I think Bowling Green can win the game.  But I have a hard time seeing them scoring 36 points on a Frederick Douglass team that has allowed only 63 all season.  Especially the way that they held down Boyle County.  Boyle would have been shutout if not for a successful trick play.  Only one team has scored more than once on the Broncos all season.  I think Bowling Green will be the second.  But I think FD gets over the hump this year and takes it 24-14. 

Just now, Carl Spackler said:

I think Bowling Green can win the game.  But I have a hard time seeing them scoring 36 points on a Frederick Douglass team that has allowed only 63 all season.  Especially the way that they held down Boyle County.  Boyle would have been shutout if not for a successful trick play.  Only one team has scored more than once on the Broncos all season.  I think Bowling Green will be the second.  But I think FD gets over the hump this year and takes it 24-14. 

Freddie D definitely has an impressive defensive unit. Should be interesting how things match up in the trenches.

1 minute ago, PhenomxX said:

Freddie D definitely has an impressive defensive unit. Should be interesting how things match up in the trenches.

I can see Bowling Green stopping FD's offense and pulling out a 17-14 type game.  But I don't think they can put up 5-6 scores unless there are a bunch of turnovers.  

If Bowling Green finds a way to 21 points they win. 

Just curious what BG does so well offensively that will allow them to score 3 or 4+ TDs on FD like I’m seeing being predicted here? I haven’t seen BG play so I’m genuinely curious. FD’s defense has only given up 1 TD in the 4 playoff games (Cov Cath scored on a fumble in the end zone.) And that’s against WOFO and O which are 2 teams that’s put up better offensive numbers thru the season than BG. FD has only given up 9 TDs all season and probably 6 of those were against JV in the 2nd half of running clock games. 
 

I think thru the season everyone saw this 50+ point per game average from FD and thought they were a high octane offensive team but it’s been their defense that’s been their strength by far. I’ve pretty much figured all season their passing game would cause them issues when they got into the playoffs and that’s exactly what’s happened. They’ve kept their passing game “safe” due to a lack of confidence in their ability to make good decisions throwing down field or hitting receivers in motion. Now that they’re facing teams with similar speed and athleticism, everyone is just loading the box, containing corners and saying you’re not beating us with the run/short pass game. I am surprised at how WOFO an O was able to get pressure on Carpenter. They’re going to have to give him better protection next week. 

Fredrick Douglas's defense is the real deal.  I just can't see how Bowling Green can score more points than the Broncos to win the game.   Give me Douglas 17-7.  

If this FD team can't get it done, when will they ever? I think they finally break through. 

Looks like another week of BG, who has won six state titles in the last 11 years listening to how they are likely in over their head against an opponent you has yet to finish the run. 

I hope to see FD win and I believe that they can. However, I believe Bowling Green is a very well oiled machine right now and looks the best at the moment. After seeing how they beat SW last night, that highly impressed me. At this point, it may be possible that BG is playing better than anyone in the state. Good luck to both teams, I look for this to be an absolute battle!

I've seen both teams against St. X so I'll take Frederick Douglass by 14. 

1 hour ago, TheDeuce said:

If this FD team can't get it done, when will they ever? I think they finally break through. 

This is a great question! Their JV went 10-0 and no one really played them close but it would very naive to think losing 29 seniors and players like Ty Bryant, Jamarion Harkless, TJ Horton, etc… and there not be some fall off. Plus if they’re moved to 6A that will make it even more difficult. I know for sure that this season won’t be considered successful if they don’t win it all. 

15 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

I've seen both teams against St. X so I'll take Frederick Douglass by 14. 

Also worth noting, Jamarion Harkless didn’t play in the St X scrimmage. 

We had some last week basing opinions off scrimmages. Didn't turn out so well. We'll see how that plays out again this week.