Bowling Green at Southwestern Predictions/Updates

[hrcarrier]

I’m going with Southwestern.

[VF111]

1 hour ago, DearToday said:

SW has the formula that usually pays off in these late, cold games. They run the ball, play good defense, and get after you for four quarters. 

I would actually argue just the opposite. When is the last time a predominantly one dimensional team even made it to the 5A Finals? 

[DearToday]

20 minutes ago, VF111 said:

I would actually argue just the opposite. When is the last time a predominantly one dimensional team even made it to the 5A Finals? 

I didn’t say a one dimensional team is the formula. I said you have to be able to run the ball to win big games in late November and early December. 5 of the 6 state champions last year out rushed their opponent. 

[VF111]

Well, it is pretty clear that Southwest can run the ball! 

[Jumper_Dad]

Lake Cumberland Sports have said they will be streaming video.

[Carl Spackler]

5 hours ago, Purple88 said:

Bowling Green (11-2) at Southwestern (13-0)

5A State Semi-Finals      

These 2 programs have only faced twice back for the opening game of the 2003 and 2010 seasons and both at WKU.  BG won both those (2003 - 41-0 and 2010 - 52-0).  I'm going on record now and saying the game on Black Friday will not be close to these scores, as this Southwestern team is playing with such confidence and on such a roll that it will take a comprehensive effort to derail them.  Both these teams have been hovering around the #5 mark of the BGP poll most of the season.  I will admit up front that I know little about Southwestern.  I haven't watched any of their games or seen any highlights, but would like to if someone could provide a link.  They seem to be a team that hasn't got their fair shake as far as clout on the 5A landscape.  I'm honestly not sure why as all they do is win.   For the Purples, they have played well this season also, but they did drop games to stout Boyle County and St. Xavier on the year.

Southwestern

Southwestern, in their 13-game win streak, has scored at least 23 points in every game with 3 times scoring in the 20s; 5 times in the 30s; 4 times in the 40s and once in the 50's.  Their defense has 3 shutouts; twice in single digits; 5 games in the teens; and 2 times giving up 20 points and the Scott County game they gave up 22 points.  This is a very consistent team.

Somerset's Commonweath Journal did a great job of summarizing the Southwestern vs. Scott County game.  That link is here:

CHAMPIONS: Southwestern wins second-ever football region title | Sports | somerset-kentucky.com

I won't go too far into the article, but it is worth your time to read.  But what I got out of it was this:  Coach Jason Foley's team is really rolling right now and while their stats say they run 3 times to every pass, the above article says their passing game and its balance really caused Scott County problems keeping the Cardinals defense off balance just enough.

Still, Southwestern is known as an old school running team and they run it really really well with many guys getting chances to touch the ball, but they are all led by SR RB Tanner Wright who has 178 carries for over 1,500 yards and 25 BIG TDs!  SR QB Roger Oliver has played efficiently this season throwing 50 for 83 for 741 yards and 7 TDs vs 1 INT.  SR WR Mason Hibbard is the top Warrior WR with 21 catches with almost 600 yards and 9 TDs, but don't go to sleep on Hibbard as he has connected on half his 18 passes this year with 1 TD and 1 INT. 

Defensively, the Warriors are led by DE, LB SR Maddox Mink who has an impressive 118 tackles on the year with 7 sacks.  I don't know what type defense Southwestern runs but hoping others including my man @WishboneCity, who told us not to sleep on SW last week, can tell us about that.

 

Bowling Green:

The Purples have had a terrific season overall coming off an uncommon 6-6 campaign last year.  Yes, losses to Boyle County and especially St X stung, but BG responded well from both those defeats and has been peaking at the right time of the year as of late.

The BG offense has really come into its own this season led by a Senior laden OLine that proved a formidable unit over last season’s ineffective version.  SO QB Deuce Bailey has simply gotten better every game and is a special player even as a Sophomore. 

Deuce has completed over 60% of his 256 passes on the year for over 2,300 yards and 25 TDs vs 5 INTs.  His stable of WRs is diverse and young, but now mostly proven with JR Easton Barlow, FR Travey Barber, and SO’s CJ Sweeny and Ethan Warder all threats.  Since the beginning of the year, no Purple has likely risen higher than JR Javon Huddleston solidifying a RB group that was mostly unknown to start the season.  Huddleston has 755 yards on just 85 attempts with 11 TDs.  Not eye-popping but considering he shares the backfield with 2 other capable backs and missed several games this year, it becomes more impressive.

The BG defense simply wasn’t that great to start the year.  They seemed to just not have the right mix or the right assignment understanding at that point in the year.  But going through BGs tough schedule has given them significant opportunities to learn and improve throughout the year.  They played their best game vs South Warren in the 2^nd round of the playoffs and seem to be improving each week now.  Their test this week will certainly test their metal.  BG is led on D by their SR LB unit of Jake Napier, Davis Fant, Devin Geer and Burt Kibawa.  Their back 4 is very solid, but their DLine has made the most strides throughout the year.  That will also be tested this week.

So what about this game?  Honestly, these teams don't overlap very much at all from common opponents.  Calpreps calls it Southwestern 22 Bowling Green 21; so it seems like a great game.  Southwestern has run it 3 to 1 this year while BG is nearly even from a balanced offense standpoint.  I get the feel Southwestern is very comfortable throwing a lot of trickeration at you.  The call to go on-side kick in the 3Q was a REALLY gutsy call.  I think play action passing will be important for the Warriors.  How is the Warrior kicker?  Does he usually kick it in the end zone; do they squib or other?

For the Purples, keep the Warriors D off balanced with rushing and passing attack.  Defensively, can BG get Southwestern off the field?  Can they make them predictable (2nd and 3rd and long).  This will surely help.  BG has a pretty solid kicking game.

I feel BG is the underdog on the road here with Southwestern the home team earning a higher RPI throughout the year.  But this isn't BG's first rodeo on the road in the State Semifinals.  They lost at CovCath in 2019. They won at CovCath in 2020.  So Senior Purples at least made those trips and several played in 2020.  I will always pick the Purples in this type matchup, so I'm biased, but feel this one could go either way.  What say you?

Really looking forward to it!  Go Purples!

Try this for some of their games: 

 

https://www.youtube.com/@LakeCumberlandSports/streams

 

[Volxtile]

Bowling Green tends to be successful against Pulaski county opponents.  I don’t think this one will be any different, but it should be a good game.  Give me BG 28 SW 21. 

[Devils Fan]

I do feel this game could go either way. Southwestern is hot right now but ima go with the team with tradition. BG is no stranger to the big games. Big crowd or not I don’t expect them to get rattled. Should be a physical hard hitting game. Give me BG winning by a late TD. 

[Devils Fan]

How many players does Southwestern dress? Couldn’t even count 15 on the sideline. 

[Voice of Reason]

3 hours ago, Devils Fan said:

How many players does Southwestern dress? Couldn’t even count 15 on the sideline. 

There are 77 players on their KHSAA roster.

[Redheat]

I will ask again since my question wasn't answered,  who has BG beaten this year that is so impressive ?🤔

[BillNye]

4 minutes ago, Redheat said:

I will ask again since my question wasn't answered,  who has BG beaten this year that is so impressive ?🤔

Purples best win is probably Greenwood. 

I don’t see how that impacts anything when it comes to Friday night. 

[Thakattack]

12 hours ago, Purple88 said:

I plan to go to the game.  Couple questions for those familiar with layout and field at Southwestern High School.

Is the field turf or grass?

How is parking?  Limited or no issues.

Places to eat?

Visitor side:  Is it very limited capacity wise?  Is it flat or does it allow a good view of the field.

Thanks in advance!

Turf field just put in.  
Parking is unlimited.  
There are multiple places to eat.  Such as Reno’s, it’s a local steakhouse that I recommend.  There are other steak houses as well. 
Sonny’s BBQ is a great bbq place as well.  
just get on Hwy 127 and drive up and down it.  You will find anything you like 

 

[Voice of Reason]

27 minutes ago, Redheat said:

I will ask again since my question wasn't answered,  who has BG beaten this year that is so impressive ?🤔

Here is how the opponent schedules stack up, ranked in order of opponent:

1. Bowling Green loss to St. X 31-0

2. Southwestern win over Scott County 23-22

3. Bowling Green loss to Boyle County 35-12

4. Southwestern win over Simon Kenton 34-19

5. Southwestern win over Pulaski County 31-20

6. Bowling Green win over Father Ryan 46-45

7. Southwestern win over Madison Central 36-0

8. Bowling Green win over South Warren twice, 34-0 and 28-24

9. Bowling Green win over Greenwood 35-7

10. Bowling Green win over Pleasure Ridge Park 42-14

 

Overall strength of schedule is a dead heat between the two.

Looking at how each has fared against their toughest opponents, edge to Southwestern.

[LongTimeReader]

I’ll take the Purples in dramatic fashion. 23-21