Bowling Green at Southwestern Predictions/Updates

[Purple88]

Bowling Green (11-2) at Southwestern (13-0)

5A State Semi-Finals      

These 2 programs have only faced twice back for the opening game of the 2003 and 2010 seasons and both at WKU.  BG won both those (2003 - 41-0 and 2010 - 52-0).  I'm going on record now and saying the game on Black Friday will not be close to these scores, as this Southwestern team is playing with such confidence and on such a roll that it will take a comprehensive effort to derail them.  Both these teams have been hovering around the #5 mark of the BGP poll most of the season.  I will admit up front that I know little about Southwestern.  I haven't watched any of their games or seen any highlights, but would like to if someone could provide a link.  They seem to be a team that hasn't got their fair shake as far as clout on the 5A landscape.  I'm honestly not sure why as all they do is win.   For the Purples, they have played well this season also, but they did drop games to stout Boyle County and St. Xavier on the year.

Southwestern

Southwestern, in their 13-game win streak, has scored at least 23 points in every game with 3 times scoring in the 20s; 5 times in the 30s; 4 times in the 40s and once in the 50's.  Their defense has 3 shutouts; twice in single digits; 5 games in the teens; and 2 times giving up 20 points and the Scott County game they gave up 22 points.  This is a very consistent team.

Somerset's Commonweath Journal did a great job of summarizing the Southwestern vs. Scott County game.  That link is here:

CHAMPIONS: Southwestern wins second-ever football region title | Sports | somerset-kentucky.com

I won't go too far into the article, but it is worth your time to read.  But what I got out of it was this:  Coach Jason Foley's team is really rolling right now and while their stats say they run 3 times to every pass, the above article says their passing game and its balance really caused Scott County problems keeping the Cardinals defense off balance just enough.

Still, Southwestern is known as an old school running team and they run it really really well with many guys getting chances to touch the ball, but they are all led by SR RB Tanner Wright who has 178 carries for over 1,500 yards and 25 BIG TDs!  SR QB Roger Oliver has played efficiently this season throwing 50 for 83 for 741 yards and 7 TDs vs 1 INT.  SR WR Mason Hibbard is the top Warrior WR with 21 catches with almost 600 yards and 9 TDs, but don't go to sleep on Hibbard as he has connected on half his 18 passes this year with 1 TD and 1 INT. 

Defensively, the Warriors are led by DE, LB SR Maddox Mink who has an impressive 118 tackles on the year with 7 sacks.  I don't know what type defense Southwestern runs but hoping others including my man @WishboneCity, who told us not to sleep on SW last week, can tell us about that.

 

Bowling Green:

The Purples have had a terrific season overall coming off an uncommon 6-6 campaign last year.  Yes, losses to Boyle County and especially St X stung, but BG responded well from both those defeats and has been peaking at the right time of the year as of late.

The BG offense has really come into its own this season led by a Senior laden OLine that proved a formidable unit over last season’s ineffective version.  SO QB Deuce Bailey has simply gotten better every game and is a special player even as a Sophomore. 

Deuce has completed over 60% of his 256 passes on the year for over 2,300 yards and 25 TDs vs 5 INTs.  His stable of WRs is diverse and young, but now mostly proven with JR Easton Barlow, FR Travey Barber, and SO’s CJ Sweeny and Ethan Warder all threats.  Since the beginning of the year, no Purple has likely risen higher than JR Javon Huddleston solidifying a RB group that was mostly unknown to start the season.  Huddleston has 755 yards on just 85 attempts with 11 TDs.  Not eye-popping but considering he shares the backfield with 2 other capable backs and missed several games this year, it becomes more impressive.

The BG defense simply wasn’t that great to start the year.  They seemed to just not have the right mix or the right assignment understanding at that point in the year.  But going through BGs tough schedule has given them significant opportunities to learn and improve throughout the year.  They played their best game vs South Warren in the 2^nd round of the playoffs and seem to be improving each week now.  Their test this week will certainly test their metal.  BG is led on D by their SR LB unit of Jake Napier, Davis Fant, Devin Geer and Burt Kibawa.  Their back 4 is very solid, but their DLine has made the most strides throughout the year.  That will also be tested this week.

So what about this game?  Honestly, these teams don't overlap very much at all from common opponents.  Calpreps calls it Southwestern 22 Bowling Green 21; so it seems like a great game.  Southwestern has run it 3 to 1 this year while BG is nearly even from a balanced offense standpoint.  I get the feel Southwestern is very comfortable throwing a lot of trickeration at you.  The call to go on-side kick in the 3Q was a REALLY gutsy call.  I think play action passing will be important for the Warriors.  How is the Warrior kicker?  Does he usually kick it in the end zone; do they squib or other?

For the Purples, keep the Warriors D off balanced with rushing and passing attack.  Defensively, can BG get Southwestern off the field?  Can they make them predictable (2nd and 3rd and long).  This will surely help.  BG has a pretty solid kicking game.

I feel BG is the underdog on the road here with Southwestern the home team earning a higher RPI throughout the year.  But this isn't BG's first rodeo on the road in the State Semifinals.  They lost at CovCath in 2019. They won at CovCath in 2020.  So Senior Purples at least made those trips and several played in 2020.  I will always pick the Purples in this type matchup, so I'm biased, but feel this one could go either way.  What say you?

Really looking forward to it!  Go Purples!

[Redheat]

I am taking the warriors in this one.

[Killowatt59]

Definitely like Bowling Green in this one. BG will be the best team SW has played all season. 
 

SW has played a fairly weak schedule. Their best win came last week and it is a good win.

BG has played three teams better than SW. Now they lost to two of them, but also beat one.

BG needs to play ahead in this game. No turn overs, catch the passes and score some points and Bg should be fine.

But if they come out and don’t play well or lay an egg then it’s a different story.

I suspect this should be a close game so who knows, but I’m picking BG in this one.

[Redheat]

Bowling Green couldn't stop our run game when we scrimmaged , and they will not be able to handle the Warrior's either.

[Hungover_in_Andover]

More often than not, with such evenly talented teams...  I'll pick a team that had a close, contested, to the end victory the week prior, than a blowout winner. 

From facing and battling these Warrior teams the past three years, I gotta give them the W. They finally avoided the 3rd round FDHS roadblock, and made the most of their opportunity.  They are going to be hungry for this.

On top of that, remembering the 2020 trip to Somerset, that stadium was jumping. Now, they've lost the advantage of a potentially muddy grass field, in favor of turf (correct?) But they had a LOUD and PROUD turnout. 

 

If there are any SW fans, do you guys still have the trailer with all the car stereo speakers in it? That was blaring, along with the crowd... Even though we barely made it out of there with a win, that was a memorable field and crowd. Electric, even.

Give me the Warriors by a TD. I think they are going to ground, and pound and let the clock run on their way to Kroger Field.  

 

 

[Killowatt59]

15 minutes ago, Redheat said:

Bowling Green couldn't stop our run game when we scrimmaged , and they will not be able to handle the Warrior's either.

BG is a completely different team than in  that scrimmage. I was there and watched it.  Plus it was a scrimmage.

Also I guarantee BG has seen multiple offensive lines better than Scott County since that scrimmage too.

[Purple88]

I plan to go to the game.  Couple questions for those familiar with layout and field at Southwestern High School.

Is the field turf or grass?

How is parking?  Limited or no issues.

Places to eat?

Visitor side:  Is it very limited capacity wise?  Is it flat or does it allow a good view of the field.

Thanks in advance!

[PhenomxX]

Speed kills. Give me BG by 3 scores.

BG: 32

SW: 14

[Jumper_Dad]

21 minutes ago, Purple88 said:

I plan to go to the game.  Couple questions for those familiar with layout and field at Southwestern High School.

Is the field turf or grass?

How is parking?  Limited or no issues.

Places to eat?

Visitor side:  Is it very limited capacity wise?  Is it flat or does it allow a good view of the field.

Thanks in advance!

Turf.

Plenty of parking.

Pm me what you like and I'll give you a list of what we have. 

Visitor side is decent, not great but not horrible either.

[DearToday]

If Bowling Green hasn’t gotten any better against the run I don’t see them being able to stop Southwestern on the ground. 

[Jumper_Dad]

Here is a panoramic view of SWHS field. Smaller away side than I remembered. 

[Killowatt59]

3 minutes ago, DearToday said:

If Bowling Green hasn’t gotten any better against the run I don’t see them being able to stop Southwestern on the ground. 

I’m not saying if they can stop it or not cause I haven’t seen SW play, BG has gotten a lot better defensively.

and their offense can score points quickly.

[DearToday]

10 minutes ago, Killowatt59 said:

I’m not saying if they can stop it or not cause I haven’t seen SW play, BG has gotten a lot better defensively.

and their offense can score points quickly.

SW has the formula that usually pays off in these late, cold games. They run the ball, play good defense, and get after you for four quarters. 

[Killowatt59]

31 minutes ago, DearToday said:

SW has the formula that usually pays off in these late, cold games. They run the ball, play good defense, and get after you for four quarters. 

Thankfully BG is a 4 quarter team too. And they have played several of those 4 quarter teams as well.

[Redheat]

16 minutes ago, Killowatt59 said:

Thankfully BG is a 4 quarter team too. And they have played several of those 4 quarter teams as well.

Who have they beaten that's so impressive?