Lloyd at Beechwood Predictions/Updates

[Voice of Reason]

It is a neighboring city rematch in the 2A semi-finals as the Lloyd Memorial Juggernauts will make the ten minute drive to face the Beechwood Tigers. Game time is always 7:30 at Beechwood. The KHSAA RPI sets the matchups in the semi-finals on a statewide basis. Beechwood is the #1 seed and Lloyd is #4 giving Beechwood home field.

Lloyd enters the game at 10-3, their first winning record in three years. The addition this year of former Dixie Heights head coach Dave Brossart to the Lloyd staff as offensive coordinator has been a huge boost to the Juggernauts. Brossart has the Juggs offense playing his hard nosed, physical running focused offense very well. 

Beechwood comes into this game as the two time defending state champion with a record of 12-1. Beechwood has only lost 1 time in their last 38 games. The Tigers have won 23 straight games against 2A opponents over the past 3 years. Head coach Noel Rash looks to make it 24 in a row over 2A teams against his alma mater.

Lloyd is an old school style of team with a run first offense and a tough aggressive defense. Offensively Lloyd has 4 times more yards rushing than they do passing. Sophomore QB Isaiah Sebastian is a star. He is a dual threat QB that runs hard with breakaway speed and elusiveness. Defensively he is 2nd in 2A with 8 interceptions. Sr. RB Kaiden Zulager runs low to the ground, will break tackles and will take it to the house if you don't team tackle him. He is ranked 10th in 2A in rushing. Lloyd will pound you on the ground and then when you don't expect it spring the pass on you, and they will work in the trick play on top of that. It takes a very disciplined defense to stop this Juggernaut offense. Defensively Lloyd is very aggressive. They are top ten in the entire state and first in 2A in sacks. Avander Abrams is 4th in 2A with 9 sacks and Amari Riley and TJ Jackson each have 7 sacks. In addition to Sebastian's 8 interceptions, John Crim has 4 interceptions. Overall Lloyd is 7th in 2A in team defense.

Beechwood has all the numbers to support their outstanding record listed above. The Tigers are #1 in 2A in team defense, #3 in 2A in scoring and #1 in 2A in scoring margin. It always start with the defense for Beechwood. The Tigers held Lloyd to their lowest scoring total of the season in their 34-7 regular season win over the Juggs. They held Lloyd to 134 yards of total offense in that game while accumulating 430 yards of offense. Sophomore QB Clay Hayden had one of his best games of the year going 17/22 for 255 yards and 3 TD passes. The challenge in this game for Beechwood is in the first matchup they still had Mr. Football candidate Mitchell Berger. He rushed for 156 yards and 2 TD's before suffering his season ending knee injury early in the second half. Beechwood outscored Lloyd 21-0 after Berger left the game so they know they can have success against this tough Juggernaut defense without Berger. Sophomore RB Chase Flaherty has been excellent filling in for Berger at RB but he has not faced a defense like Lloyd's yet. Beechwood is a very balanced offense with almost equal yards passing and rushing. The top defense in 2A is led by Jr. DE Xavier Campbell who is #2 in 2A with 10 sacks. Sr. CB Carson Craycraft is in the top 5 in 2A with 7 interceptions. The Tigers are top 5 in 2A in rushing defense. They will need to be at their best against the Lloyd running attack.

This game is going to be determined by defense. Can Lloyd's rushing attack gain ground against the Beechwood rushing defense? Can Lloyd's aggressive defense force Beechwood turnovers and get sacks to stop drives? What tricks will coach Brossart have up his sleeve to test Beechwood? Can the very disciplined Tigers defense not fall for the tricks, team tackle and once again shut down Lloyd?

What do you expect to see in this game?

[hector607]

Let’s hope the adults on the field keep their hands off players this time around. 
 

Beechwood 49

Lloyd 14

[ImJustHere]

If Beechwood plays Beechwood football, this can very well be a running clock game. This is where the Tigers thrive, deep into the playoffs. The discipline fundamental team coached by Rash will not give their opponent any sort of help. I expect this game to be chippy, as this game was the last time around, but the Tiger defense prevails yet again. Gimme 42-14, ROLL TIGAS! 

[DRKARK]

Hopefully this is a good clean game. I believe the last game Beechwood have five unsportsmanlike penalties. Go juggernauts with the upset.

[DRKARK]

9 minutes ago, ImJustHere said:

If Beechwood plays Beechwood football, this can very well be a running clock game. This is where the Tigers thrive, deep into the playoffs. The discipline fundamental team coached by Rash will not give their opponent any sort of help. I expect this game to be chippy, as this game was the last time around, but the Tiger defense prevails yet again. Gimme 42-14, ROLL TIGAS! 

There is no way this will be a running clock, let’s be realThere is no way this will be a running clock let’s be real. 

[Voice of Reason]

It's the final four. Emotions are going to be high. The team that manages their emotions and doesn't let bulloney affect them has an advantage.

[ImJustHere]

Just now, DRKARK said:

There is no way this will be a running clock, let’s be realThere is no way this will be a running clock let’s be real. 

It’s definitely not IMPOSSIBLE, but I’d say there’s a slight chance. What gives indication that it won’t be to you? 

[DRKARK]

16 minutes ago, ImJustHere said:

It’s definitely not IMPOSSIBLE, but I’d say there’s a slight chance. What gives indication that it won’t be to you? 

Well in the first game Lloyd was prepared for the strong ground game with Berger. And the score was 14 to 7 late in the third quarter if I’m not mistaken. Then when that young man got hurt they went with an empty backfield and Lloyd didn’t look prepared for that. The defensive scheme is going to be much different this time around in my opinion.

[JuggsFan82]

51 minutes ago, hector607 said:

Let’s hope the adults on the field keep their hands off players this time around. 
 

Beechwood 49

Lloyd 14

Yeah because that is exactly what happened.

 

[ImJustHere]

6 minutes ago, DRKARK said:

Well in the first game Lloyd was prepared for the strong ground game with Berger. And the score was 14 to 7 late in the third quarter if I’m not mistaken. Then when that young man got hurt they went with an empty backfield and Lloyd didn’t look prepared for that. The defensive scheme is going to be much different this time around in my opinion.

I’d have to agree that defensive scheme will change this time. But Tigers run game hasn’t fell off nearly as far as others seem to think. Flaherty is a great Back. I see them having a balanced success come Friday. As a tigers bias, I hope it’s a blowout, but I expect a close game. 

[TheBearsFavoriteHat]

13 minutes ago, ImJustHere said:

It’s definitely not IMPOSSIBLE, but I’d say there’s a slight chance. What gives indication that it won’t be to you? 

I won't say that there's is no way it's not a running clock, and I fully expect a Beechwood victory. But the fact that it was only a 2 score game until about 4 minutes left leads me to believe that it shouldn't be.

[ImJustHere]

Just now, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

I won't say that there's is no way it's not a running clock, and I fully expect a Beechwood victory. But the fact that it was only a 2 score game until about 4 minutes left leads me to believe that it shouldn't be.

I agree with you. Like I said. I expect it to be a close game. No reason for it to not be. But I won’t be at all surprised if it’s a running clock. 

[BWTigers]

Chase Flaherty has grown leaps and bounds since Mitchell Berger was hurt against Lloyd the first time. I fully expect him to have a good game and balance Beechwood’s offense. If Lloyd drops deep and protects against the pass I fully expect Chase to take this game over. I think the score will be similar to last game as Beechwood’s D is very good against the run and that’s what Lloyd wants to do. If I remember correctly the only touchdown last game was a broken coverage that led to a wide open receiver catching a long touchdown for Lloyd. My prediction: 

Beechwood 38

Lloyd 7

[Voice of Reason]

First game recap:

Q1

Beechwood - TD; 13 yard run by Berger with 7:23 to go = 7-0

Lloyd - drive ends with interception by Craycraft

Beechwood - TD; 36 yard run by Berger with 2:01 left = 14-0

Lloyd - 3 and out

Q2

Beechwood - drive ends on interception by Riley for Lloyd

Lloyd - TD; Sebastian to Riley 23 yards with 3:39 left in half = 14-7

Beechwood - drive stopped on downs at the 21

Lloyd - runs out clock

Halftime score Beechwood 14 Lloyd 7

Q3

Lloyd - Decent drive but forced to punt

Beechwood - TD; drive from their own 10; Berger injured during drive; Hayden 3 yard pass to Robinson with 44 seconds left in quarter = Beechwood 21-7

Q4

Lloyd - One first down then forced to punt

Beechwood - forced to punt

Lloyd - 3 and out

Beechwood - TD: Hayden 41 yard pass to Courtney with 4:51 left in game = Beechwood 27-7

Lloyd - 3 and out

Beechwood - TD; Hayden 22 yard pass to Robinson with 0:54 left = Beechwood 34-7

FINAL Beechwood 34 Lloyd 7

[Voice of Reason]

Key to the game for Lloyd - get the lead, then run clock to slow down the game and reduce the number of possessions. The more possessions in the game, the more likely Beechwood wins and the margin gets bigger.