Invest 98L could affect the US mainland by October 1.

[nWo]

Those with interests or vacation plans along the gulf coast and in Flordia around the 1st of October should start watching this new system. For now it is invest 98L. The early outlook are showing this system could become a cat 4 hurricane before it makes land fall the first weekend of October.  Here's this afternoon's latest from the National Hurricane Center:

A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity 
near the southern Windward Islands and over adjacent waters.  The 
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely 
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The 
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the 
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central 
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands 
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall 
and gusty winds are affecting these islands.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern 
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later 
this week.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to survey the system this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

The first map shows the present location of this system.

 

Here is a spagheti model showing what each of the models are showing what the possible tracks could be.

 

This is intensity map showing possible strentgh this system could reach.

 

Here's what the GFS is showing for possible path of Invest 98L. It is from Wednesday morning 8 am EDT to Saturday evening around 8 pm EDT.

 

 

I will be posting more updates as time passes. 

[rjs4470]

@nWoI’m going on a cruise to the western Caribbean (Cozumel, Roatan, Belize) leaving from Galveston on October 2nd. How worried should I be?

[nWo]

16 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

@nWoI’m going on a cruise to the western Caribbean (Cozumel, Roatan, Belize) leaving from Galveston on October 2nd. How worried should I be?

I would keep a close eye on it. Maybe have a contingency plan.  My daughter is scheduled to take a cruise on the 3rd. 

[nkypete]

My son is leaving today heading to New Orleans to board a boat for a cruise beginning this Saturday, September 24.  I believe the plan is for them to be in Cozumel on Monday, September 26 and Progreso on Tuesday, September 27.  Back to New Orleans on Thursday morning, September 29.  His mom and I are a bit concerned.  😟

[TheDeuce]

Cruise companies are no stranger to hurricanes, it’s obviously an important part of their business. If there is any chance a cruise will be affected, they will first look to alter the itinerary or cancel and refund.  

[nWo]

The next named storm could become a monster hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Fiona is the strongest hurricane of the Atlantic season, and now forecast models show a developing storm system could become a monstrous threat to the US Gulf Coast by next week.

An area of disorganized activity over the southeastern Caribbean Sea will likely become the next tropical storm – named Hermine – in the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center

 

 

This small cluster of storms has meteorologists’ attention because both American and European forecasting models have consistently showed them developing into a tropical system and entering the Gulf of Mexico – though the models don’t have the best track record when forecasting that far out.

“The fact that nearly every computer model out there develops this into a westward-moving hurricane is absolutely concerning,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.

 

The next named storm could be a monster hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico | CNN

[rjs4470]

6 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Cruise companies are no stranger to hurricanes, it’s obviously an important part of their business. If there is any chance a cruise will be affected, they will first look to alter the itinerary or cancel and refund.  

I'm aware that cancellations are rare and that chances are, I'll be sailing somewhere on October 2nd. I guess my biggest fears are one, what if it stays more westward and impacts where I'm leaving from, Galveston, directly. Second, while I don't fear for my safety if we set sail, I was really most interested in this particular itinerary, and re-routing would be less than ideal, although better than nothing. I've got travel insurance, so I won't lose any money should it get cancelled.

[TheDeuce]

6 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

I'm aware that cancellations are rare and that chances are, I'll be sailing somewhere on October 2nd. I guess my biggest fears are one, what if it stays more westward and impacts where I'm leaving from, Galveston, directly. Second, while I don't fear for my safety if we set sail, I was really most interested in this particular itinerary, and re-routing would be less than ideal, although better than nothing. I've got travel insurance, so I won't lose any money should it get cancelled.

I would say that if the trip were to change and you reached out to the cruise company they may give you a credit for the amount.

[nWo]

Here's the 2 pm today update.

 

 Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that an area 
of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, though 
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains 
disorganized. The environment is forecast to become more conducive 
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the 
next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and 
be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend where conditions are 
expected to be conducive for additional development.  Locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands, 
northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts 
are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening.  
Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

 

 

 

[rjs4470]

2 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

I would say that if the trip were to change and you reached out to the cruise company they may give you a credit for the amount.

You never know. I’ve never been on a cruise, but I’ve heard most of the time a refund in this type of situation is in onboard credit, which isn’t a bad thing.

[nWo]

11 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

You never know. I’ve never been on a cruise, but I’ve heard most of the time a refund in this type of situation is in onboard credit, which isn’t a bad thing.

My daughter ,who is scheduled to take a cruise, said the line she's going to be on will either change the route of the ship if possible or give her a full refund.

[TheDeuce]

39 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

You never know. I’ve never been on a cruise, but I’ve heard most of the time a refund in this type of situation is in onboard credit, which isn’t a bad thing.

We had a cruise scheduled for April 3, 2020. That obviously got cancelled. They gave us a 125% cruise credit.

We ended up just getting our money back eventually, but they were very accommodating. 

[rjs4470]

1 hour ago, TheDeuce said:

We had a cruise scheduled for April 3, 2020. That obviously got cancelled. They gave us a 125% cruise credit.

We ended up just getting our money back eventually, but they were very accommodating. 

My daughter and son in law had the same situation, and they too opted for the refund. Just going to sit back and hope for the best right now. 

[nWo]

Invest 98L is now Tropical Depression 9. 

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and northwest by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

Modeling data is now showing possible landfall next Wednesday/Thursday along the Florida Gulf Coast. Tropical Depression Nine could reach Cat 4 status. The exact track is not known yet so anyone with interests should follow this system closely.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central
Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday
night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night
and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday, 
and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).