Possible Severe Storms Next Week

[nWo]

The medium-range model guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern California on Monday and Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to move eastward into the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley by Thursday. Conditions will accompany the shortwave along with strong low-level flow will bring robust moisture with the upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle Ohio Valley by Thursday evening. The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyance will likely result in severe thunderstorms. At this time it appears most of the possible severe weather will be confined mainly west of I-65. To put out a 15% chance map seven days out is unusual. 

 

 

This map shows the short wave trough. It is represented by the blue color and is associated with a possible low-pressure system. A ridge is represented by the red color and is associated with high-pressure systems.

 

 

This radar shows the possible storms Thursday evening. Timing is not certain seven days out but this situation will be watched closely. This is the same system that was showing a possible ice storm at the beginning of this past week. 

 

 

 

I've been looking at some long-range data and pass La Nina's. That and the unusually severe weather we had this past December and to start the year off gives me the feeling we are in for above-average severe weather this spring.  La Nina years show a large increase in large tornadic outbreaks as well as an increase in the number of devasting tornadoes. I can't say this will happen but if what happened in December and January is any indication. We could be in for eventful several months ahead. 

[nWo]

Just to let every know or jog your memory. The Super Outbreak of 1974 and 2011 were La Nina years. Now I'm not saying we will see anything like those outbreaks but there will be an increase in tornadic activity this upcoming tornado season.

[nWo]

A potent weather system will bring heavy rain and possibly some strong thunderstorms to portions of Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday. Heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards expected for now. The area with the greatest potential for strong or severe storms is highlighted in yellow on the map. The forecast more than likely will change. Keep checking back for updates.

 

[ChickenWyngz]

Is this still tracking pretty much to the southwest of NKY? I haven't seen many updates. 

Man, I hope things don't get crazy for those folks. They've been through enough. 

[nWo]

There is a category 2 Slight Risk Area for western Kentucky while most of the rest of Kentucky is under a category 1 Slight Risk Area. 

 

 

There still is some uncertainty regarding the severe potential increase during the day on Thursday. This is concerning the line of storms that are forecast to move eastward throughout the day. Data show a moist, but relatively cool air mass across much of the southeast. The lack of stronger daytime heating will keep the instability modest. If a line of storms becomes dislodged from the shortwave trough conditions could keep storms strong to severe as they move towards the east. If this happens then only modest heating would be needed to support an increase in severe potential. Check back for an update later today.

 

[nWo]

17 hours ago, ChickenWyngz said:

Is this still tracking pretty much to the southwest of NKY? I haven't seen many updates. 

Man, I hope things don't get crazy for those folks. They've been through enough. 

I don't believe it is. Western Kentucky looks to be under the gun. If what some of the data about the upcoming severe season holds this is just the start of severe weather for western Kentucky. My thinking is we will see an above-average severe weather season this year. 

[nWo]

Tuesday evening update. There remains some uncertainty regarding a continued severe potential increase as the anticipated line of showers/storms moves eastward throughout the day Thursday. The lack of stronger heating will keep instability modest. All of these factors merit a Category 2 Slight Risk Area for western Kentucky. In this writing, the severe aspects look to be mainly possible damaging winds and heavy downpours under the stronger storms. Things could change as we get closer. Wouldn't be at all surprised if the Storm Prediction Center expands the Category 2 Slight Risk Area some.

For now, the timing looks to be late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning to early Friday morning before all of the rain moves out of eastern Kentucky.