1st Call for Snow 1/12*20/22

[nWo]

Here is my first call for snow for Wednesday evening into the early morning hours Thursday. The NWS offices Louisville and Jackson have issued Winter Weather Advisory. The one from Louisville is from 7 pm EST/ 6 pm CST to 8 am EST/ 7 CST Thursday.  The one from Jackson is for the same period. The National Weather Service office in Paducah has issued one from 4 pm Wednesday to 6 am CST Thursday. 

Most should see some light to moderate rain during the day Wednesday. An arctic air mass is forecast to move in along portions of the Ohio River around 5 pm EST/ 4 CST. This will start the change over to snow. Portions of southwestern Kentucky will mainly stay all rain. They may see some freezing rain for a short period. The cold air will overtake the rain and change what falls over to all snow for most of the rest of Kentucky through the rest of Wednesday evening before everything exits from Kentucky Thursday morning. 

I am pretty confident about the timing because both the GFS and NAM agree. They differ slightly on the snow accumulation totals.

First, let's look at the GFS

Radar

 

 

From the NAM:

 

 

Now let's look at what each model is showing for possible totals. 

 

GFS

 

NAM

 

 

The Weather Prediction Center has issued Winter Storm Severity Index for this incoming storm.

 

There may be some minor impacts from blowing snow.

 

Western Kentucky may have some impacts from some possible freezing rain.

 

 

 

Now for my 1st call for tomorrow evening. I will update you tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

[Bluegrasscard]

I thought this was going to be a bust this round with the rain.  I should have bought that cordless shovel!

Thanks for these.  It's really outstanding work. 

 

[nWo]

1 hour ago, Bluegrasscard said:

I thought this was going to be a bust this round with the rain.  I should have bought that cordless shovel!

Thanks for these.  It's really outstanding work. 

 

Thanks for the compliments. It takes me 2 hours to put something like this together. On the possible snow tonight. It really depends on how fast the cold air takes over the rain field. The totals can go up or down on that fact.

[nWo]

I just finished going over the latest data. I'm not going to change my 1st call from last night. I think it is pretty close. The only difference is the GFS is now showing some spots in the 4-6 inch area may get 7 inches.

[nWo]

NWS-Louisville official totals from this system.

My call

 

 

What say you?