Cardinals @ Reds (6/7 - 6/9)

[plantmanky]

In just 44 innings of 9th inning or later pitching this season the Reds have already allowed 30 runs.

Last season in 63.2 innings of 9th inning or later pitching Chapman allowed only 11 earned runs.

 

While many still hold to the fact that Closers don't matter, the simple fact is that this team would be in the Wild Card hunt today, if they had Chapman here since opening day.

 

Dont tell that to this crowd. Of course they think Votto is a great player because he hit the game winning HR last night. They will ignore the fact he struck out twice and is leading the team in strike outs.

[Jumper_Dad]

A couple things...

 

A blown save doesn't equate a loss. So just because they get a BS, doesn't mean they didn't end up winning the game. That's fallacy #1 in your argument.

 

Fallacy #2 - A blown save can occur in situations where Chapman wouldn't have been pitching. Example: 4/8/16 Reds held a 5-2 going into the 8th inning. Ended up giving up 4 runs in the 8th and lost. That's a blown save, yet it's very likely Chapman wouldn't have been in.

 

Fallacy #3 - Of the runs the Reds have given up in the 9th inning this year, I counted 25 that had no impact on the outcome of the game (either the Reds were winning going into the inning and still won, or they were losing and the other team just added to their lead), or that the Reds still ended up winning even with the save being blown. Those games wouldn't change their record.

 

You are also leaving out games where a quality closer would have gotten a hold in a tie game giving the Reds a chance to win in extra innings...no Save there but could still be a win.

 

Reds are converting 36% of Save Opportunities this season while Converting around 65% last year...with the bulk of those being converted by the closer in both years.

 

How many saves of the 12 than have been blown so far were blown before the 9th inning?

[UKMustangFan]

Dont tell that to this crowd. Of course they think Votto is a great player because he hit the game winning HR last night. They will ignore the fact he struck out twice and is leading the team in strike outs.

 

:banghead:

 

Votto is a great player because he's got a career slash line of .307/.420/.529 with a career WAR of 43.3. He's having a very poor season, by his standards, and still manages to lead the team in OBP.

[UKMustangFan]

You are also leaving out games where a quality closer would have gotten a hold in a tie game giving the Reds a chance to win in extra innings...no Save there but could still be a win.

 

Reds are converting 36% of Save Opportunities this season while Converting around 65% last year...with the bulk of those being converted by the closer in both years.

 

How many saves of the 12 than have been blown so far were blown before the 9th inning?

 

I'd have to go back and look, but I believe around half. Also last night's was one of the 12. They won that one, so that doesn't count in your calculation. So we're looking at realistically 5 games. Let's assume Chapman saves 4 of those, because he's not infallible. That still puts them at 26-32, which is good for last place in the Central.

[plantmanky]

:banghead:

 

Votto is a great player because he's got a career slash line of .307/.420/.529 with a career WAR of 43.3. He's having a very poor season, by his standards, and still manages to lead the team in OBP.

 

How many seasons are we going to say this about Votto? Or are we just going to keep saying hes great because of one good season.

[UKMustangFan]

How many seasons are we going to say this about Votto? Or are we just going to keep saying hes great because of one good season.

 

You don't know anything about baseball if you think Votto's had only one good season. Every full season he's played, which is all but 1, he's been outstanding.

[HammerTime]

You guys are missing the closer are overrated point. We are not saying you can throw in any RP and see no drop in performance. The drop from the top tier closer to the middle level closer is not significant. You are paying a very high premium for a guy that is barely out producing the average closer. Mid market teams could spend that money in other places at a better return.

[UKMustangFan]

2008: .297/.368/.506 with 24 HR & 84 RBI, 2nd in ROY voting

2009: .322/.414/.567 with 25 HR & 84 RBI

2010: .324/.424/.600 with 37 HR & 113 RBI, NL MVP, lead league in OBP

2011: .309/.416/.531 with 29 HR & 103 RBI, won GG, lead league in OBP

2012: .337/.474/.567 with 14 HR & 56 RBI, missed over 50 games, still received MVP votes, lead league in OBP

2013: .305/.435/.491 with 24 HR & 73 RBI, lead league in OBP

2014: .255/.390/.409 with 6 HR & 23 RBI, missed 100 games; his one "poor" season

2015: .314/.459/.541 with 29 HR & 80 RBI, 3rd in MVP voting

 

So, only one good season???

[Jumper_Dad]

You guys are missing the closer are overrated point. We are not saying you can throw in any RP and see no drop in performance. The drop from the top tier closer to the middle level closer is not significant. You are paying a very high premium for a guy that is barely out producing the average closer. Mid market teams could spend that money in other places at a better return.

That would be good if the Reds had an Average Closer to plug in...so far this year Hoover and Diaz have failed dramatically and Cingrani is below average when compared to other closers around the league.

[UKMustangFan]

That would be good if the Reds had an Average Closer to plug in...so far this year Hoover and Diaz have failed dramatically and Cingrani is below average when compared to other closers around the league.

 

As has been said numerous times (in other threads)....the closer is on the DL.

 

I enjoy the discussion JD, you come with facts and logical arguments. Wish others would do the same. :thumb:

[HammerTime]

That would be good if the Reds had an Average Closer to plug in...so far this year Hoover and Diaz have failed dramatically and Cingrani is below average when compared to other closers around the league.

 

Agreed on that front. Not to mention having a stud closer on a 70 win team is kinda silly.

[MJAlltheWay24]

I think my streak of not having to work the upper deck has finally come to an end.

 

As some of you may know from my stories, if you sell the most soda, water, or peanuts for a game, you get to pick your location for the next game. I've become very good at pushing these secondary products and had a nice streak going. I haven't worked the upper deck since April 10th. As you can imagine that makes my life a lot better and more lucrative while others are working up there about once every four games!

 

Unless a few of the older guys were pulling a fast one on me last night, which I wouldn't put past them and I hope they were, I may be going to an unknown territory tonight. I asked one of them to draw me a map on how to get to the commissary up there cause its been a while lol.

[SnottieDrippen]

What a great teammate you would be.

 

Nice avi!

[UKMustangFan]

Cozart SS

Votto 1B

Phillips 2B

Bruce RF

Duvall LF

Suarez 3B

Hamilton CF

Barnhart C

Simon P

[NKY Bandit]

Over/under on innings for Pasta tonight? I'll take 3 2/3.