Doing this cost me my best girlfriend, so you better enjoy it.....
First Round
Wednesday 12:00
16th region vs. 1st region
Russell (18-13) vs. Graves Co. (27-5)
Previous Meetings:0
Russell (18-13)
Road to Rupp (16th region)
44-37 Rowan Co.
62-33 Fairview
56-52 Elliott Co.
Average PPG:52.1
Average PPG Against:51.9
Key Players: Jon Vanhoose, Scott Gill
Graves Co. (27-5)
Road to Rupp (1st region)
63-43 Lone Oak
46-37 Marshall Co.
48-32 Calloway Co.
Average PPG:60.7
Average PPG Against:45.4
Key Players:Randon Cavette, Zach Sims
Analysis
Give Russell credit for playing some quality "non region" compeition (Brossart, Bryan Station, Scott come to mind).....
Russell is obviously going to have to keep this one in the 30's and 40's to have any kind of chance....
Both teams beat the previous years regional champion in the first round of region tournament play....
Cavette averages around 10 boards a game for Graves Co.....
I think Russell can keep it close, but Graves has too much offense....
Projected Score
Graves Co. 59
Russell 38
Wednesday 1:30
5th region vs. 13th region
John Hardin (26-4) vs. South Laurel (27-5)
Previous Meetings:0
John Hardin (26-4)
Road to Rupp (5th region)
65-43 Campbellsville
77-62 Nelson Co.
77-71 E-Town (2 OT)
Average PPG:63.8
Average PPG Against:57.8
Key Players:Maze Stallworth, Brandon Bland
South Laurel (27-5)
Road to Rupp (13th region)
97-71 Lynn Camp
87-43 North Laurel
47-46 Barbourville
Average PPG:73.4
Average PPG Against:53.4
Key Players:Ty Profitt, Walt Allen
Analysis
Probably the best game of the first day.....
I have never seen a team 27-4 with only a 6 PPG differential.....
Maze Stallworth averages around 18 PPG for JH.....
This game could go either way in all honesty, but when in doubt, you take the team with the experience and the rings.....
Projected Score
South Laurel 65
John Hardin 60
Wednesday 6:30
15th region vs. Region 7
Johnson Central (19-11) vs. Region 7 (J-Town/Ballard)
Previous Meetings:0
Johnson Central (19-11)
Road to Rupp (15th region)
Pikeville (46-43)
Betsy Layne (65-61)
Shelby Valley (59-56)
Average PPG: 65.1
Average PPG Against: 64.1
Key Players: Jamie McCarty, Kyle Rice
Region 7 (JTown/Ballard)
I wont do a "Road to Rupp" since this region has obviously not been decided yet....
Jeffersontown (27-3)
Average PPG: 70.1
Average PPG Against: 52.6
Key Players: Nick Gagel, Thomas Coleman
Ballard (22-9)
Average PPG: 66.6
Average PPG Against: 55.3
Key Players: Chris Gowers, David Stanley
Analysis
This will be a wacky, interesting game based on the delay in knowing the 7th region champ.....
While it wont help the Louisville school, it doesn't help JC not knowing who to prepare for either, so no advantage IMO....
I think the game will be sloppy....
I'll take the Louisville school pulling away comfortably in the second half....
Projected Score
7th region rep. 72
Johnson Central 48
Wednesday 8:00
8th region vs. 2nd region
Shelby Co. (30-3) vs. Christian Co. (20-9)
Previous Meetings:0
Shelby Co. (30-3)
Road to Rupp (8th region)
75-38 Grant Co.
70-57 North Oldham
67-56 Simon Kenton
Average PPG: 64.2
Average PPG Against: 51.3
Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers
Christian Co. (20-9)
Road to Rupp (2nd region)
62-38 Crittenden Co.
60-56 Madisonville/North Hopkins
53-51 Henderson Co.
Average PPG: 62.4
Average PPG Against: 56
Key Players: Keith Tandy, Jamiazz Baker
Analysis
Christian Co. will be the underdog obviously, but this will be a close game...
AJ Slaughter averages over 19 PPG 4 boards, and 4 assist for Shelby....
I saw Shelby play some in the 5/3rd, and was very impressed by the coaching.........
Look for a game in the high 50's and 60's, and Shelby Co. will have a solid 4th quarter and win by double digits....
Projected Score
Shelby Co. 72
Christian Co. 61
Thursday 12:00
Region 10 vs. Region 4
Mason Co. (24-8) vs. Warren Central (26-6)
Previous Meetings: 0
Mason Co. (24-8)
Road to Rupp (10th region)
65-50 Deming
60-55 Bishop Brossart
62-59 Clark Co.
Average PPG: 63
Average PPG Against: 54.5
Key Players: Darius Miller, Micah Turner
Warren Central (26-6)
Road to Rupp (4th region)
81-52 Russellville
57-39 Barren Co.
72-47 Metcalfe Co.
Average PPG: 69.5
Average PPG Against: 55.6
Key Players: Jeremy Anderson, Nick Britt
Analysis
Rematch of 2004 state championship game, unfortantely there will be no Lionel Dewalt or Chris Lofton on the floor....
Having seen Mason Co. on several occasions this season, I know that they'll need a big game on defense from Tyrese Scott and a nice offensive game from Russ Middleton to win this game....
Warren Central is quickly becoming the big "bully" from the west, they are a fun team to watch....
Mason Co. had 3 hard games in region, and you may think that could play a factor at some point....
I hate to go against Mason Co, but I think youth could show up early (I believe they only have 1 senior in Micah Turner).....
Projected Score
Warren Central 63
Mason Co. 58
Thursday 1:30
Region 9 vs. Region 3
Covington Catholic (24-6) vs. Apollo (22-10)
Previous Meetings: 0
Covington Catholic (24-6)
Road to Rupp (9th region)
65-47 Ryle
75-57 Highlands
61-50 Newport Central Catholic
Average PPG: 64.6
Average PPG Against: 53.3
Key Players: Todd Jacobs, Danny Noll
Apollo (22-10)
Road to Rupp (3rd region)
52-42 Muhlenberg North
39-37 Meade Co. (OT)
50-49 Ohio Co. (3 OT)
Average PPG: 55.5
Average PPG Against: 50.3
Key Players: Tyler Brown, Doug Denton
Analysis
Apollo had to have the toughest road in the region to make it to Rupp, talk about turning someone crazy....
Cov Cath could be a sleeper to win it all in all honesty.....
The "colonel crazies" (same name we used at Bourbon for our student section) will be there rocking, I'll go on record and say I'm glad I dont have tickets next to that student section.....
Rex Chapman wont be suiting up for Apollo, it's been an exciting run but the dream ends Thursday afternoon....
Projected Score
Covington Catholic 68
Apollo 54
Thursday 6:30
Region 14 vs. Region 11
Hazard (22-10) vs. Madison Central (25-7)
Previous Meetings: 0
Hazard (22-10)
Road to Rupp (14th region)
83-60 Wolfe Co.
66-63 JBS (2 OT)
57-50 Jackson City
Average PPG: 64.8
Average PPG Against: 58.2
Key Players: Justin Hicks, Michael Campbell
Madison Central (25-7)
Road to Rupp (11th region)
66-61 Bryan Station
66-65 Woodford Co.
60-57 Scott Co.
Average PPG: 64.8
Average PPG Against: 57.6
Key Players: Aaron Morris, Matt Lowery
Analysis
On paper, this is a very very even matchup, same average PPG and close to the same PPG given up, the difference is the quality of the 11th region vs. the quality of the 14th region. It's like comparing a thong to granny panties in all honesty.....
Justin Hicks averages almost 20 PPG, Central will need to make sure they have a hand in this kids face.....
Madison Central quietly went about their business during the year, and surprised the heck out of me winning the 11th.....
The Indians are a better team by 15-20 points....
Projected Score
Madison Central 75
Hazard 58
Thursday 8:00
Region 12 vs. Region 6
Boyle Co. (21-9) vs. PRP (27-5)
Previous Meetings: 0
Boyle Co. (21-9)
Road to Rupp (12th region)
54-40 Rockcastle Co.
48-43 McCreary Co.
67-51 Southwestern
Average PPG: 55.2
Average PPG Against: 50.5
Key Players: Brian Staed
PRP (27-5)
Road to Rupp (6th region)
94-51 Brown
64-62 Doss
61-54 Desales
Average PPG: 69
Average PPG Against: 56.4
Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier
Analysis
If the game is boring, then the Rebels have an outside chance. If it's up and down, forget about it.....
The 12th region is quickly becoming one of the most boring to follow IMO....
PRP, year in and year out, is one of the most fun teams to watch....
Dale Mabry and Crutcher get it done....
Projected Score
PRP 65
Boyle Co. 42
Quarterfinals
Friday 12:00
Region 1 vs. Region 13
Graves Co. (27-5) vs. South Laurel (27-5)
Previous Meetings: 0
Graves Co. (27-5)
Road to Rupp (1st region)
63-43 Lone Oak
46-37 Marshall Co.
48-32 Calloway Co.
Average PPG:60.7
Average PPG Against:45.4
Key Players:Randon Cavette, Zach Sims
South Laurel (27-5)
Road to Rupp (13th region)
97-71 Lynn Camp
87-43 North Laurel
47-46 Barbourville
Average PPG:73.4
Average PPG Against:53.4
Key Players:Ty Profitt, Walt Allen
Analysis
Whenever you get a matchup this good, it leaves your mouth watering.....
South Laurel got a very very hard "pod bracket".......
If Graves can keep it low scoring, they have a decent chance. I remember seeing Ohio. Co do the exact same thing for most of the game in the first round last year.......
If the game gets in the 60's, I look for SL's offense, and experience, to take over....
Projected Score
South Laurel 68
Graves Co. 64
Friday 1:30
Region 8 vs. Region 7
Shelby Co. (30-3) vs. Region 7 (J-Town/Ballard)
Previous Meetings: 0
Shelby Co. (30-3)
Road to Rupp (8th region)
75-38 Grant Co.
70-57 North Oldham
67-56 Simon Kenton
Average PPG: 64.2
Average PPG Against: 51.3
Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers
Jeffersontown (27-3)
Average PPG: 70.1
Average PPG Against: 52.6
Key Players: Nick Gagel, Thomas Coleman
Ballard (22-9)
Average PPG: 66.6
Average PPG Against: 55.3
Key Players: Chris Gowers, David Stanley
Analysis
Shelby Co. would match up better against Ballard, Shelby Co-JTown could be a game where the first team to 70 wins.....
If J-Town wins region 7, this could easily be the game of the tournament IMO....
If you only want to go to one session during the first three days, this is the session you want to attend....
I have a feeling about Shelby Co, after seeing Slaughter just slightly over the past year (saw them play in the 5/3), I just love the game they play....
Projected Score
Shelby Co. 71
J-Town 70
or
Shelby Co. 65
Ballard 57
Friday 6:30
Region 4 vs. Region 9
Warren Central (26-6) vs. Covington Catholic (24-6)
Previous Meetings: 0
Warren Central (26-6)
Road to Rupp (4th region)
81-52 Russellville
57-39 Barren Co.
72-47 Metcalfe Co.
Average PPG: 69.5
Average PPG Against: 55.6
Key Players: Jeremy Anderson, Nick Britt
Covington Catholic (24-6)
Road to Rupp (9th region)
65-47 Ryle
75-57 Highlands
61-50 Newport Central Catholic
Average PPG: 64.6
Average PPG Against: 53.3
Key Players: Todd Jacobs, Danny Noll
Analysis
Anyone else smelling a real good Friday at Rupp?........
Two evenly matched teams, you can make an argument either way
When it comes down to it, you have to look at experience in these tournaments. Cov Cath could easily win this game, and the "Colonel Crazies" could be holding the trophy Saturday night, but Warren Central's experience leads me to pick them, barely....
Projected Score
Warren Central 58
Covington Catholic 56
Friday 8:00
Region 11 vs. Region 6
Madison Central (25-7) vs. PRP (27-5)
Previous Meetings: 0
Madison Central (25-7)
Road to Rupp (11th region)
66-61 Bryan Station
66-65 Woodford Co.
60-57 Scott Co.
Average PPG: 64.8
Average PPG Against: 57.6
Key Players: Aaron Morris, Matt Lowery
PRP (27-5)
Road to Rupp (6th region)
94-51 Brown
64-62 Doss
61-54 Desales
Average PPG: 69
Average PPG Against: 56.4
Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier
Analysis
Another game that could go either way.....
I actually the tournament could be "won" on Friday this year.....
I can't find anything that sways me either way. And when that happens, you usually have to take the team with the best player on the floor, and that's PRP and Cruthcer. And again, it doesn't hurt that PRP played on Saturday last year.....
Projected Score
PRP 65
Madison Central 60
Semifinals
Saturday 10:00 AM
Region 13 vs. Region 8
South Laurel (27-5) vs. Shelby Co. (30-3)
Previous Meetings: 0
South Laurel (27-5)
Road to Rupp (13th region)
97-71 Lynn Camp
87-43 North Laurel
47-46 Barbourville
Average PPG:73.4
Average PPG Against:53.4
Key Players:Ty Profitt, Walt Allen
Shelby Co. (30-3)
Road to Rupp (8th region)
75-38 Grant Co.
70-57 North Oldham
67-56 Simon Kenton
Average PPG: 64.2
Average PPG Against: 51.3
Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers
Analysis
Oh boy........
If this matchup occurs, people will be screaming for hot sauce with their scrambled eggs......
I hope my good friend Jim Schue will be ready for this game (if it happens...)
I am big on "experience" and such, and while I think South Laurel should be a favorite to win this tournament, I think Shelby Co. will win.....
Projected Score
Shelby Co. 56
South Laurel 52
Saturday 11:30 AM
Region 4 vs. Region 6
Warren Central vs. PRP
Previous Meetings: 0
Warren Central (26-6)
Road to Rupp (4th region)
81-52 Russellville
57-39 Barren Co.
72-47 Metcalfe Co.
Average PPG: 69.5
Average PPG Against: 55.6
Key Players: Jeremy Anderson, Nick Britt
PRP (27-5)
Road to Rupp (6th region)
94-51 Brown
64-62 Doss
61-54 Desales
Average PPG: 69
Average PPG Against: 56.4
Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier
Analysis
This would be the most evenly matched game of the tournament if it happens IMO...... look at PPG and PPG against.....
You can't really use the "experience" factor on these two teams either, both know what they are doing, and wont be gun shy in front of a ton of people in the AM......
I'm going to go back to my "best player on floor" theory when you have two teams so evenly matched. Crutcher was impressive last year, and PRP has historically been able to hit FT's (see Pendleton Co. game last season).....
Projected Score
PRP 71
Warren Central 66
Championship Game
Saturday 8:00
Region 8 vs. Region 6
Shelby Co. (30-3) vs. PRP (27-5)
Shelby Co. (30-3)
Road to Rupp (8th region)
75-38 Grant Co.
70-57 North Oldham
67-56 Simon Kenton
Average PPG: 64.2
Average PPG Against: 51.3
Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers
PRP (27-5)
Road to Rupp (6th region)
94-51 Brown
64-62 Doss
61-54 Desales
Average PPG: 69
Average PPG Against: 56.4
Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier
Analysis
This will be a good final (if it happens) but I wonder the crowd, PRP usually doesn't bring a ton of people.....
Dale Mabry could easily be the best coach in KY today......
Your looking at a game that on paper should be high scoring, but I look for a struggle on offense, based mostly on nerves......
When I saw Shelby Co. earlier in the year I saw a team that was not only confident, but they played with a swagger you dont see from too many high school teams. I made a mental note then to keep them in mind if they made it to Lexington. 30-3 record doesn't hurt my justification either....
It'll be an ugly, close game, but I like Rockets to bring home the 2005-2006 KSHAA Boys Basketbal Sweet Sixteen Championship...
Projected Score
Shelby Co. 58
PRP 51
OTHER FUNGOES!
Rating the Sweet 16 (or 15 who have qualified so far...)
1. Shelby Co. (30-3)
2. South Laurel (27-5)
3. PRP (27-5)
4. Warren Central (26-6)
5. Graves Co. (27-5)
6. John Hardin (26-4)
7. Covington Catholic (24-6)
8. Madison Central (25-7)
9. Mason Co. (24-8)
10. Apollo (22-10)
11. Christian Co. (20-9)
12. Boyle Co. (21-9)
13. Hazard (22-10)
14. Johnson Central (19-11)
15. Russell (18-13)
J-Town would be #4 if they advance tommorow night, Ballard #7......
Enjoy.......