FreakNasty's Sweet Sixteen Preview/Projections

[bcfan24]

Doing this cost me my best girlfriend, so you better enjoy it.....

 

First Round

 

Wednesday 12:00

 

16th region vs. 1st region

 

Russell (18-13) vs. Graves Co. (27-5)

 

Previous Meetings:0

 

Russell (18-13)

 

Road to Rupp (16th region)

44-37 Rowan Co.

62-33 Fairview

56-52 Elliott Co.

 

Average PPG:52.1

Average PPG Against:51.9

 

Key Players: Jon Vanhoose, Scott Gill

 

Graves Co. (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (1st region)

63-43 Lone Oak

46-37 Marshall Co.

48-32 Calloway Co.

 

Average PPG:60.7

Average PPG Against:45.4

 

Key Players:Randon Cavette, Zach Sims

 

Analysis

 

Give Russell credit for playing some quality "non region" compeition (Brossart, Bryan Station, Scott come to mind).....

 

Russell is obviously going to have to keep this one in the 30's and 40's to have any kind of chance....

 

Both teams beat the previous years regional champion in the first round of region tournament play....

 

Cavette averages around 10 boards a game for Graves Co.....

 

I think Russell can keep it close, but Graves has too much offense....

 

Projected Score

Graves Co. 59

Russell 38

 

Wednesday 1:30

 

5th region vs. 13th region

 

John Hardin (26-4) vs. South Laurel (27-5)

 

Previous Meetings:0

 

John Hardin (26-4)

 

Road to Rupp (5th region)

65-43 Campbellsville

77-62 Nelson Co.

77-71 E-Town (2 OT)

 

Average PPG:63.8

Average PPG Against:57.8

 

Key Players:Maze Stallworth, Brandon Bland

 

South Laurel (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (13th region)

97-71 Lynn Camp

87-43 North Laurel

47-46 Barbourville

 

Average PPG:73.4

Average PPG Against:53.4

 

Key Players:Ty Profitt, Walt Allen

 

Analysis

 

Probably the best game of the first day.....

 

I have never seen a team 27-4 with only a 6 PPG differential.....

 

Maze Stallworth averages around 18 PPG for JH.....

 

This game could go either way in all honesty, but when in doubt, you take the team with the experience and the rings.....

 

Projected Score

South Laurel 65

John Hardin 60

 

Wednesday 6:30

 

15th region vs. Region 7

 

Johnson Central (19-11) vs. Region 7 (J-Town/Ballard)

 

Previous Meetings:0

 

Johnson Central (19-11)

 

Road to Rupp (15th region)

Pikeville (46-43)

Betsy Layne (65-61)

Shelby Valley (59-56)

 

Average PPG: 65.1

Average PPG Against: 64.1

 

Key Players: Jamie McCarty, Kyle Rice

 

Region 7 (JTown/Ballard)

 

I wont do a "Road to Rupp" since this region has obviously not been decided yet....

 

Jeffersontown (27-3)

 

Average PPG: 70.1

Average PPG Against: 52.6

 

Key Players: Nick Gagel, Thomas Coleman

 

Ballard (22-9)

 

Average PPG: 66.6

Average PPG Against: 55.3

 

Key Players: Chris Gowers, David Stanley

 

Analysis

 

This will be a wacky, interesting game based on the delay in knowing the 7th region champ.....

 

While it wont help the Louisville school, it doesn't help JC not knowing who to prepare for either, so no advantage IMO....

 

I think the game will be sloppy....

 

I'll take the Louisville school pulling away comfortably in the second half....

 

Projected Score

 

7th region rep. 72

Johnson Central 48

 

Wednesday 8:00

 

8th region vs. 2nd region

 

Shelby Co. (30-3) vs. Christian Co. (20-9)

 

Previous Meetings:0

 

Shelby Co. (30-3)

 

Road to Rupp (8th region)

75-38 Grant Co.

70-57 North Oldham

67-56 Simon Kenton

 

Average PPG: 64.2

Average PPG Against: 51.3

 

Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers

 

Christian Co. (20-9)

 

Road to Rupp (2nd region)

62-38 Crittenden Co.

60-56 Madisonville/North Hopkins

53-51 Henderson Co.

 

Average PPG: 62.4

Average PPG Against: 56

 

Key Players: Keith Tandy, Jamiazz Baker

 

Analysis

 

Christian Co. will be the underdog obviously, but this will be a close game...

 

AJ Slaughter averages over 19 PPG 4 boards, and 4 assist for Shelby....

 

I saw Shelby play some in the 5/3rd, and was very impressed by the coaching.........

 

Look for a game in the high 50's and 60's, and Shelby Co. will have a solid 4th quarter and win by double digits....

 

Projected Score

 

Shelby Co. 72

Christian Co. 61

 

Thursday 12:00

 

Region 10 vs. Region 4

 

Mason Co. (24-8) vs. Warren Central (26-6)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Mason Co. (24-8)

 

Road to Rupp (10th region)

65-50 Deming

60-55 Bishop Brossart

62-59 Clark Co.

 

Average PPG: 63

Average PPG Against: 54.5

 

Key Players: Darius Miller, Micah Turner

 

Warren Central (26-6)

 

Road to Rupp (4th region)

81-52 Russellville

57-39 Barren Co.

72-47 Metcalfe Co.

 

Average PPG: 69.5

Average PPG Against: 55.6

 

Key Players: Jeremy Anderson, Nick Britt

 

Analysis

 

Rematch of 2004 state championship game, unfortantely there will be no Lionel Dewalt or Chris Lofton on the floor....

 

Having seen Mason Co. on several occasions this season, I know that they'll need a big game on defense from Tyrese Scott and a nice offensive game from Russ Middleton to win this game....

 

Warren Central is quickly becoming the big "bully" from the west, they are a fun team to watch....

 

Mason Co. had 3 hard games in region, and you may think that could play a factor at some point....

 

I hate to go against Mason Co, but I think youth could show up early (I believe they only have 1 senior in Micah Turner).....

 

Projected Score

 

Warren Central 63

Mason Co. 58

 

Thursday 1:30

 

Region 9 vs. Region 3

 

Covington Catholic (24-6) vs. Apollo (22-10)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Covington Catholic (24-6)

 

Road to Rupp (9th region)

65-47 Ryle

75-57 Highlands

61-50 Newport Central Catholic

 

Average PPG: 64.6

Average PPG Against: 53.3

 

Key Players: Todd Jacobs, Danny Noll

 

Apollo (22-10)

 

Road to Rupp (3rd region)

52-42 Muhlenberg North

39-37 Meade Co. (OT)

50-49 Ohio Co. (3 OT)

 

Average PPG: 55.5

Average PPG Against: 50.3

 

Key Players: Tyler Brown, Doug Denton

 

Analysis

 

Apollo had to have the toughest road in the region to make it to Rupp, talk about turning someone crazy....

 

Cov Cath could be a sleeper to win it all in all honesty.....

 

The "colonel crazies" (same name we used at Bourbon for our student section) will be there rocking, I'll go on record and say I'm glad I dont have tickets next to that student section.....

 

Rex Chapman wont be suiting up for Apollo, it's been an exciting run but the dream ends Thursday afternoon....

 

Projected Score

 

Covington Catholic 68

Apollo 54

 

Thursday 6:30

 

Region 14 vs. Region 11

 

Hazard (22-10) vs. Madison Central (25-7)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Hazard (22-10)

 

Road to Rupp (14th region)

83-60 Wolfe Co.

66-63 JBS (2 OT)

57-50 Jackson City

 

Average PPG: 64.8

Average PPG Against: 58.2

 

Key Players: Justin Hicks, Michael Campbell

 

Madison Central (25-7)

 

Road to Rupp (11th region)

66-61 Bryan Station

66-65 Woodford Co.

60-57 Scott Co.

 

Average PPG: 64.8

Average PPG Against: 57.6

 

Key Players: Aaron Morris, Matt Lowery

 

Analysis

 

On paper, this is a very very even matchup, same average PPG and close to the same PPG given up, the difference is the quality of the 11th region vs. the quality of the 14th region. It's like comparing a thong to granny panties in all honesty.....

 

Justin Hicks averages almost 20 PPG, Central will need to make sure they have a hand in this kids face.....

 

Madison Central quietly went about their business during the year, and surprised the heck out of me winning the 11th.....

 

The Indians are a better team by 15-20 points....

 

Projected Score

 

Madison Central 75

Hazard 58

 

Thursday 8:00

 

Region 12 vs. Region 6

 

Boyle Co. (21-9) vs. PRP (27-5)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Boyle Co. (21-9)

 

Road to Rupp (12th region)

54-40 Rockcastle Co.

48-43 McCreary Co.

67-51 Southwestern

 

Average PPG: 55.2

Average PPG Against: 50.5

 

Key Players: Brian Staed

 

PRP (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (6th region)

94-51 Brown

64-62 Doss

61-54 Desales

 

Average PPG: 69

Average PPG Against: 56.4

 

Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier

 

Analysis

 

If the game is boring, then the Rebels have an outside chance. If it's up and down, forget about it.....

 

The 12th region is quickly becoming one of the most boring to follow IMO....

 

PRP, year in and year out, is one of the most fun teams to watch....

 

Dale Mabry and Crutcher get it done....

 

Projected Score

 

PRP 65

Boyle Co. 42

 

Quarterfinals

 

Friday 12:00

 

Region 1 vs. Region 13

 

Graves Co. (27-5) vs. South Laurel (27-5)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Graves Co. (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (1st region)

63-43 Lone Oak

46-37 Marshall Co.

48-32 Calloway Co.

 

Average PPG:60.7

Average PPG Against:45.4

 

Key Players:Randon Cavette, Zach Sims

 

South Laurel (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (13th region)

97-71 Lynn Camp

87-43 North Laurel

47-46 Barbourville

 

Average PPG:73.4

Average PPG Against:53.4

 

Key Players:Ty Profitt, Walt Allen

 

Analysis

 

Whenever you get a matchup this good, it leaves your mouth watering.....

 

South Laurel got a very very hard "pod bracket".......

 

If Graves can keep it low scoring, they have a decent chance. I remember seeing Ohio. Co do the exact same thing for most of the game in the first round last year.......

 

If the game gets in the 60's, I look for SL's offense, and experience, to take over....

 

Projected Score

 

South Laurel 68

Graves Co. 64

 

Friday 1:30

 

Region 8 vs. Region 7

 

Shelby Co. (30-3) vs. Region 7 (J-Town/Ballard)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Shelby Co. (30-3)

 

Road to Rupp (8th region)

75-38 Grant Co.

70-57 North Oldham

67-56 Simon Kenton

 

Average PPG: 64.2

Average PPG Against: 51.3

 

Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers

 

Jeffersontown (27-3)

 

Average PPG: 70.1

Average PPG Against: 52.6

 

Key Players: Nick Gagel, Thomas Coleman

 

Ballard (22-9)

 

Average PPG: 66.6

Average PPG Against: 55.3

 

Key Players: Chris Gowers, David Stanley

 

Analysis

 

Shelby Co. would match up better against Ballard, Shelby Co-JTown could be a game where the first team to 70 wins.....

 

If J-Town wins region 7, this could easily be the game of the tournament IMO....

 

If you only want to go to one session during the first three days, this is the session you want to attend....

 

I have a feeling about Shelby Co, after seeing Slaughter just slightly over the past year (saw them play in the 5/3), I just love the game they play....

 

Projected Score

 

Shelby Co. 71

J-Town 70

 

or

 

Shelby Co. 65

Ballard 57

 

Friday 6:30

 

Region 4 vs. Region 9

 

Warren Central (26-6) vs. Covington Catholic (24-6)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Warren Central (26-6)

 

Road to Rupp (4th region)

81-52 Russellville

57-39 Barren Co.

72-47 Metcalfe Co.

 

Average PPG: 69.5

Average PPG Against: 55.6

 

Key Players: Jeremy Anderson, Nick Britt

 

Covington Catholic (24-6)

 

Road to Rupp (9th region)

65-47 Ryle

75-57 Highlands

61-50 Newport Central Catholic

 

Average PPG: 64.6

Average PPG Against: 53.3

 

Key Players: Todd Jacobs, Danny Noll

 

Analysis

 

Anyone else smelling a real good Friday at Rupp?........

 

Two evenly matched teams, you can make an argument either way

 

When it comes down to it, you have to look at experience in these tournaments. Cov Cath could easily win this game, and the "Colonel Crazies" could be holding the trophy Saturday night, but Warren Central's experience leads me to pick them, barely....

 

Projected Score

 

Warren Central 58

Covington Catholic 56

 

Friday 8:00

 

Region 11 vs. Region 6

 

Madison Central (25-7) vs. PRP (27-5)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Madison Central (25-7)

 

Road to Rupp (11th region)

66-61 Bryan Station

66-65 Woodford Co.

60-57 Scott Co.

 

Average PPG: 64.8

Average PPG Against: 57.6

 

Key Players: Aaron Morris, Matt Lowery

 

PRP (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (6th region)

94-51 Brown

64-62 Doss

61-54 Desales

 

Average PPG: 69

Average PPG Against: 56.4

 

Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier

 

Analysis

 

Another game that could go either way.....

 

I actually the tournament could be "won" on Friday this year.....

 

I can't find anything that sways me either way. And when that happens, you usually have to take the team with the best player on the floor, and that's PRP and Cruthcer. And again, it doesn't hurt that PRP played on Saturday last year.....

 

Projected Score

 

PRP 65

Madison Central 60

 

Semifinals

 

Saturday 10:00 AM

 

Region 13 vs. Region 8

 

South Laurel (27-5) vs. Shelby Co. (30-3)

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

South Laurel (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (13th region)

97-71 Lynn Camp

87-43 North Laurel

47-46 Barbourville

 

Average PPG:73.4

Average PPG Against:53.4

 

Key Players:Ty Profitt, Walt Allen

 

Shelby Co. (30-3)

 

Road to Rupp (8th region)

75-38 Grant Co.

70-57 North Oldham

67-56 Simon Kenton

 

Average PPG: 64.2

Average PPG Against: 51.3

 

Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers

 

Analysis

 

Oh boy........

 

If this matchup occurs, people will be screaming for hot sauce with their scrambled eggs......

 

I hope my good friend Jim Schue will be ready for this game (if it happens...)

 

I am big on "experience" and such, and while I think South Laurel should be a favorite to win this tournament, I think Shelby Co. will win.....

 

Projected Score

 

Shelby Co. 56

South Laurel 52

 

Saturday 11:30 AM

 

Region 4 vs. Region 6

 

Warren Central vs. PRP

 

Previous Meetings: 0

 

Warren Central (26-6)

 

Road to Rupp (4th region)

81-52 Russellville

57-39 Barren Co.

72-47 Metcalfe Co.

 

Average PPG: 69.5

Average PPG Against: 55.6

 

Key Players: Jeremy Anderson, Nick Britt

 

PRP (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (6th region)

94-51 Brown

64-62 Doss

61-54 Desales

 

Average PPG: 69

Average PPG Against: 56.4

 

Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier

 

Analysis

 

This would be the most evenly matched game of the tournament if it happens IMO...... look at PPG and PPG against.....

 

You can't really use the "experience" factor on these two teams either, both know what they are doing, and wont be gun shy in front of a ton of people in the AM......

 

I'm going to go back to my "best player on floor" theory when you have two teams so evenly matched. Crutcher was impressive last year, and PRP has historically been able to hit FT's (see Pendleton Co. game last season).....

 

Projected Score

 

PRP 71

Warren Central 66

 

Championship Game

 

Saturday 8:00

 

Region 8 vs. Region 6

 

Shelby Co. (30-3) vs. PRP (27-5)

 

Shelby Co. (30-3)

 

Road to Rupp (8th region)

75-38 Grant Co.

70-57 North Oldham

67-56 Simon Kenton

 

Average PPG: 64.2

Average PPG Against: 51.3

 

Key Players: AJ Slaughter, Isreal Chambers

 

PRP (27-5)

 

Road to Rupp (6th region)

94-51 Brown

64-62 Doss

61-54 Desales

 

Average PPG: 69

Average PPG Against: 56.4

 

Key Players: Vincent Crutcher, Troy Frazier

 

Analysis

 

This will be a good final (if it happens) but I wonder the crowd, PRP usually doesn't bring a ton of people.....

 

Dale Mabry could easily be the best coach in KY today......

 

Your looking at a game that on paper should be high scoring, but I look for a struggle on offense, based mostly on nerves......

 

When I saw Shelby Co. earlier in the year I saw a team that was not only confident, but they played with a swagger you dont see from too many high school teams. I made a mental note then to keep them in mind if they made it to Lexington. 30-3 record doesn't hurt my justification either....

 

It'll be an ugly, close game, but I like Rockets to bring home the 2005-2006 KSHAA Boys Basketbal Sweet Sixteen Championship...

 

Projected Score

 

Shelby Co. 58

PRP 51

 

 

 

OTHER FUNGOES!

 

Rating the Sweet 16 (or 15 who have qualified so far...)

1. Shelby Co. (30-3)

2. South Laurel (27-5)

3. PRP (27-5)

4. Warren Central (26-6)

5. Graves Co. (27-5)

6. John Hardin (26-4)

7. Covington Catholic (24-6)

8. Madison Central (25-7)

9. Mason Co. (24-8)

10. Apollo (22-10)

11. Christian Co. (20-9)

12. Boyle Co. (21-9)

13. Hazard (22-10)

14. Johnson Central (19-11)

15. Russell (18-13)

 

J-Town would be #4 if they advance tommorow night, Ballard #7......

 

Enjoy.......

[00Rocket28]

Man, that had to take like forever dude, but good job!

[sfan]

Man, that had to take like forever dude, but good job!

Good JOB !!!!!! bUT YOU HAVE NO UPSETS AND THIS YEAR WILL HAVE LOT ............. SORRY FOR THE CAPS ........

[NEERFAN]

Once again a fine job by FN, I love the thong/GP line. Good point about John Hardin, I guess a small margin isn't too unexpected when you play a top 10 team (ETown) 5 times in a season. I don't know about Shelby cutting down the nets, Slaughter is the real deal but do they have others to contribute from downtown if they face a decent sized lead down the stretch. One thing is for certain, when the ball is tipped you never know.

[Play 2 Win]

How comes there wins didn't increase each time they advanced?

 

j/k...Great job. Too much time on your hands...

[capitalreporter]

Once again a nice job by Freak.

[JumpMan89]

Great lay out on this. I do have to say that I don't see Warren Central capitalizing over Mason County. I feel the Royals will make the quarterfinals and bow out to PRP. Will love to see the match up with Shelby and South Laurel, but IMO South Laurel will pull this out. PRP and S Laurel in the finals. S Laurel cuts down the nets, in OT.

[Kevo302]

I just hope we get past the first round. Those John Hardin folk's are tough.

[bcfan24]

How comes there wins didn't increase each time they advanced?

 

j/k...Great job. Too much time on your hands...

 

 

Spring Break, no basketball for a couple days, what else is too do? :lol:

 

You can make a case for 6 or 7 teams winning this tournament IMO, I might try to make it up Wednesday night but that certainly is up in the air.....

 

Great lay out on this. I do have to say that I don't see Warren Central capitalizing over Mason County. I feel the Royals will make the quarterfinals and bow out to PRP. Will love to see the match up with Shelby and South Laurel, but IMO South Laurel will pull this out. PRP and S Laurel in the finals. S Laurel cuts down the nets, in OT.

 

Mason-Warren Central could go either way in all honesty, but Mason folks will tell you they probably a year away from being serious contenders for a state championship......

[MountainThunder]

Wow, that is some impressive analysis FN! Color me impressed!

[KHSB1]

I hope you got paid for that!!!!

[Deimos]

I'm sure this took a while Freak.

 

Good job though. I enjoyed it.

[colonel-fan]

Nice job.

 

One small correction - Warren Central and CovCath have played. In fact it was just two years ago in the state semifinals. One of the more exciting plays was a dunk by DeWalt over CovCath's Votel. DeWalt walked on the play, but Votel was called for the foul and DeWalt completed the 3 point play.

[cch5432]

Nice job.

 

One small correction - Warren Central and CovCath have played. In fact it was just two years ago in the state semifinals. One of the more exciting plays was a dunk by DeWalt over CovCath's Votel. DeWalt walked on the play, but Votel was called for the foul and DeWalt completed the 3 point play.

And WC threw it in with 50.1 seconds to go, then called time out before crossing half court with 39.2 seconds left, but the refs called no 10 second violation.

 

If the 2nd round is WC vs. CCH, I see it being close but CovCath winning. While Warren Central has the experience, I believe they are young and CovCath is loaded with 5 seniors. Just as in the 9th tourney when Dixie upset Holmes because their seniors weren't finished, I could see this happening in Rupp.

[strike-3]

And WC threw it in with 50.1 seconds to go, then called time out before crossing half court with 39.2 seconds left, but the refs called no 10 second violation.

 

If the 2nd round is WC vs. CCH, I see it being close but CovCath winning. While Warren Central has the experience, I believe they are young and CovCath is loaded with 5 seniors. Just as in the 9th tourney when Dixie upset Holmes because their seniors weren't finished, I could see this happening in Rupp.

 

Wow, your still holding on to that call. I'm sure you know that a ten second violation is based on the officials count and not the clock. Warren Central got a whole 10.9 seconds. I don't suppose that it is possible that from the time that the WC player called the timeout, the officials heard the call for timeout, blew his whistle and signaled timeout, the timekeeper saw the officials signal and moved his finger to stop the clock, more than .9 seconds could have ellapsed. I mean that is a pretty big margin for error.