wanttowin

Thanks TOG

Well the computer certainly seems to have accurately predicted the BG win on the field over St. X. Certainly, if a team played a team multiple time you would have somewhat different results depending on turnovers, injuries and a host of other factors related to how the ball bounces in any particular game but a computer does more objectively project likely results much better than fans. Just for funsies lets see how well it does on predictions for a few of tonight's interstate games. Note, these projections assume a neutral field (none of these games actually will be played on a neutral field but I didn't know if or how to change that factor) so you might adjust a few points in favor of the home team to factor in travel, etc. Cin St. X 28 Lou St. X 7 Cin Moeller 34 Trinity 19 Blackman 31 BG 27

perhaps a mod can fix the bolded mistake above. I meant to say that (most H.S. football teams probably should not be on the same field with these heavyweight teams). Thanks.

Sorry apparently I accidentally hit the reply button inadvertently before finishing my post. Moeller 38-21 Cincy st. X 28-19 St. Edwards 42-28 St. Ignatious 31-28 But would beat LaSalle 42-31 So, in effect, CalPreps predicts that BG would go 1-3 in the GCL and lose two of the games by more than a touchdown although all competitive games. Those teams, other than LaSalle, are all consistent Ohio heavyweights so no shame in being competitive with but losing to good teams like that (mosth.s. football teams should be on the field with them) but at least the computer thinks BG would be far from unbeatable in Ohio. Did not run other games but you put link above so others can run there own comparisons. There are some other computer sites that do the same things (others might want to share their favorites as these are a fun way to see how teams might match up if they played) and results can vary (just like actual games) depending on what factors are put in to the system and of course multiple simulations would come up with each team winning a certain percentage of the time. For what it is worth Calpreps also shows BG matchups with certain select KY teams as follows: Highlands would beat BG 38-35 Male would beat BG 35-34 BG would beat Trinity 28-27 BG would beat St. X (again, I suppose) 38-28 You can run your own matchups from there.

Running a few quick computer matchups on Calpreps.com calpreps.com shows BG would lose on a neutral field to: Colerain 42-31 Elder 31-27 Moeller

With a spirit that will not play a JV football game against Highlands...

77-0 final

This thread seems like more than a little overreaction (or perhaps better stated traffic generator--I suppose I am feeding into the latter). A young Beechwood team (I also realize a lot of young CCH players in the game as well although the difference was the senior dressman as referenced above) loses 28-7 in a game where they make 4 turnovers and they should stop playing their neighboring rival school, CovCath. CovCath was and is the better team as most agree but it wasn't that big a mismatch. Watching the game in person I didn't feel like their health was at risk with the size disparity and it seems to me this is an excellent way for Beechwood to prepare themselves each year for Mayfield and other better playoff competition especially because the Tigers get such limited competition out of their district (but 3 weeks to heal). Did I miss the thread earlier this year "Is it time for Boone County to stop playing Covington Catholic? Men vs. Boys?" when CovCath beat them down 48-0 to start the season (following up on their 34-0 loss to CCH the prior year so hard to argue it was just one bad game when you haven't scored on them in 2 years). Although I suppose it would open up the schedule for a 1A Beechwood - 6A Boone County game that it appears would be much more winnable for the Tigers.

At the risk of being a "Clyde quoting Clyde" kind of poster, I realized last night (in conversation with my friend and BGP poster) that another obvious answer to the bolded question is CovCath, which should have the same playoff road as JC above (albeit with a different easy playoff home opener) but first having to start the playoff journey with the long 3 hour bus trip for a road game at Johnsonville :thumb: and then otherwise playing the same road playoff schedule listed above. This is the other big implication of the annual regular season contest between Highlands and CovCath is that the loser of the game in the current class alignment and playoff system typically has to make that long trip to play on the road against a usually formidable JC team in the second round and, if they prevail in that contest, play the rematch on the road as well.

Originally Posted by Oldbird There is no school Highlands size playing that type of a schedule. Trolling as well but John Curtis Christian School is private school. They have had incredible football success and it appears that they are actually considerably smaller with about 800 students from Pre K thru HS. But it would be like saying Oak Hills Academy or Huntington Prep are smaller schools that play a tougher basketball schedule. I expect that there may be a very select few private schools that play that type of schedule but I also expect that Oldbird is correct that no public school the size of Highlands plays that type of schedule but if you find one that you think does please toss it out there.

I had this same conversation with a friend this past week. JC obviously has a good team this year but their likely path to a state championship for JC this year is as follows: Harrison County at home CovCath (presumably then healthy and at full strength) at home Highlands Away (3 hour trip) (winner of) Boyle or LexCath Away Collins at WKU As I was discussing with my friend (and probably better for its own thread later in the year when the playoff roads are more clear), what Ky team (with legitimate championship aspirations -- e.g., not Harrison County, no offense to them) has a tougher road of multiple games to a state championship in any class this year--where every game after the first round opener is a tough game. So if JC wins it all, there will be no question that they have earned and deserve it.

I don't know. It seems nice to me that a fan from a team over 300 miles away in a different class cares enough to start a thread about your team and not about the local power in their part of the state (BG). I mean it is not like anybody from NKY (or elsewhere) would ever start a "Why doesn't Mayfield play Trinity (or BG or Highlands, etc.) thread?" If so, I expect the Mayfield answer would be similar to Highlands--we play many other good teams whose schedules we can arrange with ours, almost all of which are schools much larger than our school which has been quite successful in preparing our team to win state championships (9 for Mayfield, 22 for Highlands), so why do you ask (instead of checking the archives for the multiple year annual threads on this topic referenced by LN). In other words the BGP obsession for Highlands football is both internal and external. It is not happenstance that Guru starts a Highlands-related JV game cancellation thread that generates more posts and views than any Mayfield or Kenton varsity game. Also, check the number of MHS and Kfan posts on Highlands threads versus Highlands fans posts on Mayfield and Kenton threads. So again, it is nice that people care enough to ask even when that love/hate interest is largely unreciprocated with respect to their teams.

or Kenton's

UC update. UC continues to roll...in Florida. Given up 10 points total in 3 games since Highlands scored 42 in opener on them. University Chr. Christians Football Schedule, Stats and Standings University Chr. Christians Scoreboard FINAL 1 2 3 4 OT Total Christ's Church 0 0 0 0 -- 0 University Chr. 14 21 10 0 -- 45 Next Game at Trinity Christian Sep. 27 - 7:00 pm Standings District 2-2A District Overall Cedar Creek Chr. 1-0 3-1 Duval Charter 0-1 3-1 University Chr. 0-0 3-1 Harvest Community 1-0 2-1 Eagle's View 0-1 0-3 About Coach David Penland Years Exp: Third year, 21-5. Records: 2012 Record: 13-1; won state title 28-10 over Dade Christian. Schedule 8/24 at Highlands 47-17 L 8/30 at Carrollwood Day 48-0 W 9/6 PROVIDENCE 29-10 W 9/20 CHRIST'S CHURCH 45-0 W 9/27 at Trinity Christian 7:00 10/4 at Duval Charter 4:30 10/18 at Harvest Community 7:00 11/1 CEDAR CREEK CHR. 7:00 11/8 ARLINGTON COUNTRY DAY 7:00 Recent news ◾Bowes, University Christian coast over Christ's Church Sep. 21 2013 ◾High School Football: Week 4 Preview Sep. 20 2013 ◾High School Football: Week 3 Preview Sep. 13 2013 ◾Ke'Shan Pennamon leads UC to victory over Providence Sep. 07 2013 ◾High School Football: Week 2 Preview Sep. 06 2013 ◾University Christian coasts to win over Carrollwood Aug. 31 2013 ◾University Christian football dynasty no longer dormant Aug. 23 2013 ◾High school football previews: Class 2A, 1A, Independents Aug. 23 2013 ◾University Christian's Josh Nichols, who beat cancer at Wolfson, returns to inspire patients Aug. 21 2013 ◾University Christian football team will open season on ESPNU Jul. 22 2013 ◾All-State Football: University Christian puts six on Class 2A team Jan. 03 2013 ◾2012 All-First Coast football teams Dec. 31 2012 ◾Times-Union Super 24: The top recruits in the class of 2013 Dec. 23 2012 ◾University's defense made a championship stand when needed Dec. 07 2012 ◾University Christian rallies to win Class 2A state title Dec. 07 2012

University Christian remains undefeated ... against Florida teams Ke'Shan Pennamon leads UC to victory over Providence | jacksonville.com Ke'Shan Pennamon leads UC to victory over Providence Close for a little while, Christians pull away in second half Posted: September 7, 2013 - 1:05am | Updated: September 7, 2013 - 2:08am By Lee Goddard Just when Providence believed it had a chance to bottle up Ke’Shan Pennamon, he broke free. And when Pennamon got loose Friday night, it led to Hussein Howe Jr. crossing the goal line for host University Christian. Box score: University Christian 29, Providence 10 Howe scored all four Christians touchdowns, each coming after Pennamon delivered a big play. A kick return from Pennamon, along with a breakaway run, a big pass reception and an interception, all allowed UC, top-ranked in Class 2A, to hold off the Stallions 29-10 in a non-district contest. Pennamon opened the game with a 51-yard kick return to set up a scoring run from Howe and later added a 44-yard run and a 48-yard reception off a pass in the flat, each leading to Howe scores. For good measure, Pennamon sealed the game with an interception he returned 44 yards, with Howe finishing off the scoring with a 30-yard touchdown run. “The frustrating thing about that is we had him stopped a couple of times in the backfield,” Providence coach Bobby Raulerson said of Pennamon. “He was running wide, we set the edge and he cut back across the field. When you get a guy like that running in the open field, he’s tough to bring down.” The frustration belonged to UC (2-1) for much of the opening 34 minutes. Aside from the first drive of the game, the Christians had trouble moving the ball. “Providence had a good scheme, and we had to adjust to that,” UC coach David Penland said. “They have some good players over there. We had to keep chipping away.” Providence (1-1) had big plays from Will Mitchell — a 96-yard kick return to start the second half and tie the game at 7 and a 68-yard run to set up a field goal. But the Stallions had a few drives stall in Christians territory. Penalties, turnovers, bad snaps and blocked field goals played a role, along with three sacks from Antonio Simmons and big plays from Brandon Long along UC’s front seven. Defensive back Jake Stoshak added a pass breakup off a big hit in the end zone to force a field goal. “We had opportunities to go ahead, but we could never really get into a rhythm,” Raulerson said. “Against a defending state champ, you can’t turn the ball over. We thought if we didn’t turn the ball over, we could have a lead in the fourth quarter, but you saw what happened.” While Providence pulled to within 14-10 at the start of the fourth quarter, the Stallions could contain Pennamon and Howe no longer, as Howe rushed for 107 yards, including 50 in the final quarter, and scored from 1, 3, 6 and 30 yards. Read more at Jacksonville.com: Ke'Shan Pennamon leads UC to victory over Providence | jacksonville.com

UNIVERSITY CHRISTIAN 48 CARROLLWOOD DAY 0 Fifth-ranked Carrollwood Day had no answer for University Christian sophomore running back Ke’Shan Pennamon who led the top-ranked Christians to a 48-0 landslide win over the Patriots. University Christian coasts to win over Carrollwood | jacksonville.com University Christian coasts to win over Carrollwood Posted: August 31, 2013 - 3:13am | Updated: August 31, 2013 - 3:18am By The Times-Union UNIVERSITY CHRISTIAN 48 CARROLLWOOD DAY 0 Fifth-ranked Carrollwood Day had no answer for University Christian sophomore running back Ke’Shan Pennamon who led the top-ranked Christians to a 48-0 landslide win over the Patriots. Pennamon led all rushers with 152 yards and two touchdowns on just five carries. Sophomore Hussein Howe added 99 yards on eight carries as the Christians rushed for 386 yards on the night. Defensively, senior defensive back Jake Stoshak picked up right where he left off from a year ago as he scored on a 42-yard interception return. Stoshak also had the Christians only reception on the night which went for 33 yards. Read more at Jacksonville.com: University Christian coasts to win over Carrollwood | jacksonville.com

VOR, I agree completely with the point of your post (as you consistently live up to your screen name). That being said, Highlands has won the majority of the large NKY school frosh championships over the past 10 years including I believe at least 4 undefeated seasons. However, as mentioned by others whether championships or a few losses at freshman level, the varsity teams succeeding them generally have had comparable success. It is a different game at the varsity level. Also, potential weaknesses of one class/grade are often solved by players in the talent pool of the class below or above them.

I wouldn't be surprised to see McCracken County crack the bottom of the top 10 list during the year. I guess we will know more about where they stand after a few early season games against Purchase Area traditional powers (albeit smaller class schools), Tilghman and Mayfield that should be good tests for all those teams, but I believe I saw that they had 3 players on the CJ top 50 list including a highly-rated and experienced QB so sounds like some talent along with an experienced successful coach in Jack Haskins.

Good analysis. With respect to the running game I agree with LN but also thought that the Birds already know what they have at RB with two excellent and very experienced backs in Harris (3 year starter) and Hays so there was nothing for them to learn or find out about them by running them much in a scrimmage so no reason to risk them taking a lot of hits. They will have to find new ways to score in their goal line offense as they have relied a great deal in recent years on having a strong running QB (McCoy, Towles, Bardo, etc.) down there for quite a few years and the past couple of years often using a "jumbo package" with a couple of extra offensive lineman in the backfield in front of him to help make room (and I believe they have had a 90%+ TD success rate inside the 10 the past few years). That being said the OL looked good, protected the QB pretty well in the passing game and should be able to get it done near the goal line. Trinity looked great last night. QB looked really good. Otherwise not the awe-striking star power of Quick, Dawkins and Hatcher of the past few years but a really good strong football player at every position and very well coached and fundamentally sound. I look forward to seeing the Ensworth game on TV next week. Overall a very well played scrimmage with I believe only one TO and not too many penalties for an opening scrimmage (and most of those seemed like pass interference and not many of the false start and mental mistake penalties you often see early in season). It is amazing to me how well prepared the players are to play this early in the season versus early scrimmages from not too many years ago. Good luck to both teams this season. I expect both of them to have exceptional seasons again this year.

I believe without question that both teams would want to continue this rivalry game albeit without the same state championship implications (which might somewhat reduce the year round time the teams spend preparing for each other--I am not sure what these teams will do with all that new found extra time). That being said, I believe it is safe to saythat the current Highlands AD is in a safe position regardless of whether he continues to schedule the game (but having won 17 of the last 18 regular season contests and always looking for local team that will play them why wouldn't he want to continue it).

History "...The younger kids look good, but as you know the Tigers might be elevated to 2A status soon with the ever shifting sands of enrollment for various schools around the state." I see from the enrollment reports (linked in another thread and again below) that 1A Mayfield has 216 boys as compared to 2A NCC's 215 so does it seem likely Mayfield will be reclassified to 2A during the next reclassification period so perhaps this can be settled on the field in the near future? Perhaps Beechwood's numbers also would put them in the 2A classification (188 boys versus, for example, current 2A Brossart that has 162 boys so they seem somewhat likely to switch or swap classes) moving the Big 3 to the same class 2A and making that Class very interesting although that would put Beechwood/NCC back in the same tough position they have been at some periods in the past of having to get past an exceptionally tough district rival opponent (each other) to get out of the region ala Trinity/St. X, Highlands/CovCath, LexCath/Boyle) whereas Mayfield would have a much easier path at least to the state semis. That also would make Class A wide open (i.e., perhaps the only class where we can't name 4 teams or usually only 2 or 3 today and have a 90% chance of naming the 2020 state champion). Kentucky High School Athletic Association Enrollment Reports

I have no horse in this race (pun intended) but when I took a quick glance at the enrollment numbers linked in another thread (and again below) and see a 1A school with 215 boys (Mayfield) and a 2A school with 162 boys (Brossart) or 53 less (over 30% less) I believe Brossart's argument during the last classification that it should have been classified as a 1A school had a lot of merit (particularly combined with the competitive disadvantage of it being a new program to boot). Sorry to beat a :deadhorse: (again pun intended). Kentucky High School Athletic Association Enrollment Reports

Should McCracken County be listed at least among the "others" even in their first year of 6A?

To elaborate on TOG's baseball response above since Coach Mueller started coaching Highlands in 1994, Highlands is 24-6 against CCH. CCH won twice his first season (1994), twice in 2006, a playoff game in 2001 and the mudbowl in 1997. In this series Highlands is 9-0 over the last 6 seasons, 14-2 over the last 11 seasons, 20-3 over the last 15 seasons and 24-4 over the last 18 seasons. Highlands has beaten CCH in their regular season games 17 of the last 18 seasons (every year except 2006 when a TD pass on the last play of the game interrupted the streak) and it appears that Highlands has won 9 straight (all of the) regular season games that have been played at CCH (where they play this coming season) during that time. However, to put a positive spin on it for CCH, during that 19 year time period the only other team with more than two wins against Highlands is Cincinnati Elder, so CCH has beaten HHS 3 times more than any other team during that era (albeit in many more attempts than any other team during that time period).

Not sure when CCH last won but I know Highlands has won every Frosh game played with them the past 9 years (since 2004) going at least 13-0 over that period (they have played twice a year the past 4 years). Don't know about results before 2004.