As I understand it there are two seasons remaining in the current alignment. With the continued growth of the Boone schools one would think that Cooper and Conner are going to 6A. What about Scott? How do you handle that large number of schools in 6A in the region? To many for a single district and not enough for two districts.

 

Rumor is that Beechwood may have beefed up to AA enrollment. Does that put them in a district with NCC or have NCC's numbers fallen to the A level?

 

Do CovCath and Highlands fall into the same class and if not will H be permitted to move up?

If the KHSAA holds to their usual, the two years of enrollment that will be used to determine the next alignment will come from the 2012/13 (this past year) and 2013/14 (the coming year) school years. That's how they've done it in prior alignments, to use the average of male enrollment from the two available years prior to their draft alignment, which will be completed prior to the January 2014 meeting.

 

What that means is that we already have data for one of the years that will be used, so 50% of the way there. There may still be some movement on the borders, but schools that are not on the precipice of moving up or down are not likely to jump far enough. In Conner and Cooper's case, they are firmly 5A. Cooper is actually closer to 4A than 6A. Muhlenberg County is the smallest 6A school with 721 males enrolled. Conner is the 9th largest 5A school with 647 males. That means if Muhlenberg County remained the same, Conner would have to jump by 128 males to equal them in a two year average. That's obviously not going to happen. Conner is only 10 males higher than they were in 2010/11. They dropped by 8 the following year, and then jumped by 18 last year. They're not exhibiting near the type of growth to jump to 6A. I question whether they have the type of growth that would take them to 6A even by 2019. Cooper has exhibited more growth than that, jumping from 540 in 2010/11 to 586 last year, but obviously are still a long, long way off. Right now they project as the 14th smallest 5A school.

 

Scott is in the same both as CovCath. Right now Scott (529) projects as the largest 4A school. CovCath (531) projects as the smallest 5A school. They are separated by 2 males. CovCath had a significant jump last year of 32 males and jumped by 13 the year before that. So they appear to be growing while Scott went radically in the different direction, dropping by 41 males from 11/12 to 12/13. In a one for one exchange, there'll be no problem in the NKY district as long as one of them stays in 5A. Doss (528) is close behind as is South Warren (525) and Johnson Central (522). South Warren is the one to keep your eye on. They are a newish school that has been rapidly increasing in enrollment. They jumped by 73 from 10/11 to 11/12 and then by 37 to 12/13. I would be surprised if they didn't ultimately end up as a 5A school. I think NKY would be best served if Covington Catholic caught up with and bumped down another 5A school, like Madison Southern (539).

 

Beechwood is currently projecting as the smallest 2A school with 184 males. They're well short of the next smallest 2A school which is Ballard Memorial (207). There are 4 schools that are within 10 males of them in 1A, Fort Knox (180), Crittenden County (179), Bethlehem (178), and Bishop Brossart (177). So it's tough to say whether or not they'll actually be in 2A or not. NewCath will most definitely be staying, with 223 males. Most interesting of all is that Mayfield (215) will likely move up as well. 2A could be extremely interesting if Beechwood stayed up.

 

Which brings us to CovCath/Highlands. I brought up this possibility a few months back that the teams might be split up. If the KHSAA holds to their policy for movement, it's for geographic purposes only. In the past, the two teams have been able to move up together due to a lack of available teams in NKY. There are established districts in both 4A and 5A. In 4A, Bourbon County, Harrison County, Holmes, and Mason County are all locks to stay in the class. In 5A, Conner, Cooper, and Grant County are likewise. So I would say in all likelihood Highlands would not be allowed to move up, if they even desired to, unless the KHSAA makes some sort of eyebrow-raising exception. I'm not certain when, if ever, the two teams have been in separate classes, but we may see exactly that in 2015.

I should add that I'm also assuming that:

 

-They maintain 6 classes

-They hold to the policy of 32 teams in 1A and 6A

-They divide evenly among the other classes adding any surplus number to lower classes.

-This would lead them to divide 221 teams thusly:

--1A - 32

--2A - 40

--3A - 39

--4A - 39

--5A - 39

--6A - 32

 

-In the previous alignments, they did not bump any team down if someone played up, so even if someone moved up into another class, the lowest team doesn't drop.

I'm guessing that, as DragonFire said, the numbers used for the next alignment will be the average number of boys in 2012-13 and 2013-14. If you look at the numbers from 2011-12/2012-13, a few things stand out:

 

Class 1A

-Bishop Brossart seems almost certain to drop back down to 1A. Using the 2YA, they are #26 in the class. One would expect them to replace Beechwood in District 4, which would be good for the Mustangs.

-Crittenden County and Fort Knox are both in the 1A section. Crittenden County would likely replace Mayfield in the far west district. Fort Knox's addition could mean some changes in District 2 and/or 3.

 

Class 2A

-Mayfield and Webster County both could find their way into this class. Mayfield has a 2YA of 215, but Nicholas County (largest 1A) has a 179, which means Mayfield would really have to decrease.

-Thomas Nelson will likely remain in 2A, but I'm not sure what will happen to their enrollment. When South Warren opened, they were small but then grew. I suspect Thomas Nelson will do the same, although they might not be in 3A until the next alignment.

 

Class 3A

-It would appear that Prestonsburg, Bardstown, Caldwell County and DeSales are all primed to move into 3A. While their numbers are similar to that of the largest schools in 2A, it seems likely at least a couple of them will move up.

-The back end of 3A is also very interesting. As of now, Lexington Catholic (400.5-2YA) and Boyle County (408.5-2YA) seem to be headed for 3A. They are both roughly 20 smaller than the smallest 4A, so they could make up the ground, but we'll see. How different would Class 3A look with some of these names moving in to join Central, Belfry, Breathitt, Larue, Corbin, Garrard, etc.?

 

Class 4A

-The biggest name that looks destined for 4A is Bourbon County. The Colonels were the largest school in 3A and have continued growing. Their 2YA is 458, which is 38 higher than the smallest 4A school.

-It also seems likely that Wayne County will move to 4A, considering they have taken on the closed Monticello High School's students. The Cardinals are actually trending toward the higher end of 4A.

-A few noticeable move-downs include John Hardin, Warren Central and Franklin County. All three of those are near the top of the 5A list, which could definitely be fluid.

-As for Covington Catholic and Highlands, I think both will still be in 4A. Highlands is right in the middle of the class, while Covington Catholic is near the top. Covington Catholic appears to be around 20 students below the smallest 5A school, so the Colonels could make the move up.

 

Class 5A

-5A appears to be the class that will, as of now, be affected the least by the potential alignment. Most of the big names are still there, while there is little movement down from 6A.

 

Class 6A

-6A is probably the class that will change the least over the years. Looking at the 2-year numbers it appears that only North Hardin and Jeffersontown are close to making the move up.

 

Certainly this is all speculation and keep in mind that the numbers I've used are only half right. But this does give you an idea of where certain schools are trending for the future alignment.

If you are curious, here are the numbers from the KHSAA broken down by the 2-year average of 2011-12/2012-13. Like DragonFire mentioned earlier, I have broken Class 1A and 6A in 32 teams, Class 2A into 40, and 3A-5A into 39. I've made no effort to question who might play up and I've posted no effort at districting.

 

http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/2012and2013averanegschoolenrollmentbyenroll.pdf

 

CLASS 1A

1. Fulton City 52.5

2. Eminence 68.0

3. Fulton County 88.5

4. Pineville 89.0

5. Dayton 93.0

6. Paintsville 98.5

7. Jenkins 105.0

8. Williamsburg 108.0

9. Paris 111.5

10. Caverna 115.0

11. Harlan 116.5

12. Frankfort 119.0

13. Bellevue 119.5

14. Louisville Holy Cross 129.5

15. Kentucky Country Day 131.0

16. Russellville 133.0

17. Phelps 143.5

18. Ludlow 147.0

19. Lynn Camp 148.0

20. Hazard 148.5

21. Campbellsville 151.5

22. South Floyd 161.5

23. Fairview 163.0

24. Raceland 164.5

25. Berea 167.0

26. Bishop Brossart 169.5

27. Pikeville 169.5

28. Bracken County 176.0

29. Bethlehem 177.5

30. Crittenden County 178.0

31. Fort Knox 178.0

32. Nicholas County 179.0

 

CLASS 2A

1. Beechwood 186.0

2. Trimble County 210.5

3. Ballard Memorial 211.5

4. Mayfield 215.0

5. Murray 216.0

6. Newport Central Catholic 218.5

7. Middlesboro 226.5

8. Covington Holy Cross 228.0

9. Betsy Layne 230.0

10. Clinton County 230.0

11. Newport 231.5

12. Lexington Christian 232.0

13. McLean County 232.5

14. Metcalfe County 235.5

15. Owensboro Catholic 241.5

16. Allen Central 242.5

17. Walton-Verona 243.5

18. Hancock County 247.0

19. Leslie County 249.5

20. Somerset 250.5

21. Gallatin County 254.5

22. Owen County 260.0

23. Danville 260.5

24. Butler County 271.0

25. Carroll County 271.5

26. Green County 273.0

27. Thomas Nelson 274.0

28. Lloyd Memorial 274.5

29. Shawnee 289.0

30. Washington County 291.0

31. Shelby Valley 291.5

32. Todd County Central 292.0

33. West Carter 292.0

34. Glasgow 297.5

35. Christian Academy-Louisville 306.0

36. Webster County 307.0

37. Monroe County 312.0

38. Knott County Central 314.5

39. Magoffin County 315.0

40. Bath County 316.5

 

CLASS 3A

1. East Ridge 317.0

2. Prestonsburg 317.0

3. Morgan County 317.5

4. Bardstown 318.5

5. Caldwell County 321.0

6. DeSales 321.5

7. Trigg County 325.0

8. Edmonson County 325.5

9. Lawrence County 325.5

10. Jackson County 328.0

11. Russell 332.5

12. Casey County 336.0

13. Sheldon Clark 337.0

14. Estill County 346.0

15. Henry County 350.0

16. Union County 359.0

17. Larue County 359.5

18. Lewis County 362.0

19. Garrard County 367.5

20. Adair County 369.5

21. Fleming County 373.0

22. Breathitt County 374.5

23. Pike County Central 375.5

24. Powell County 376.0

25. Hart County 380.0

26. McCreary Central 380.5

27. Western Hills 381.5

28. Elizabethtown 388.5

29. Corbin 396.0

30. Lexington Catholic 400.5

31. Fort Campbell 402.0

32. Belfry 402.5

33. Paducah Tilghman 406.5

34. Bell County 407.0

35. Central 408.0

36. Boyle County 408.5

37. Pendleton County 408.5

38. Waggener 410.5

39. Moore 411.0

 

CLASS 4A

1. East Carter 420.5

2. Breckinridge County 423.0

3. Russell County 426.0

4. Rockcastle County 427.5

5. Spencer County 428.5

6. Taylor County 430.5

7. Holmes 431.0

8. Greenup County 433.5

9. Franklin-Simpson 437.0

10. Allen County-Scottsville 437.5

11. Western 438.0

12. Ashland 448.0

13. Highlands 451.5

14. Mason County 452.0

15. Rowan County 454.0

16. Bourbon County 458.0

17. Boyd County 459.5

18. Hopkins County Central 459.5

19. Mercer County 462.5

20. Warren East 467.0

21. Harrison County 468.5

22. Knox Central 475.0

23. Clay County 476.5

24. Marion County 484.5

25. Collins 490.0

26. Letcher County Central 493.5

27. Perry County Central 493.5

28. Calloway County 494.5

29. Wayne County 498.0

30. North Oldham 503.0

31. John Hardin 503.5

32. Shelby County 503.5

33. South Warren 506.5

34. Franklin County 509.0

35. Covington Catholic 515.0

36. Doss 518.0

37. Johnson Central 523.0

38. Warren Central 525.5

39. Valley 528.5

 

CLASS 5A

1. Madisonville-North Hopkins 532.0

2. Madison Southern 540.0

3. Logan County 547.0

4. Scott 549.5

5. East Jessamine 550.0

6. West Jessamine 559.0

7. Hopkinsville 560.5

8. Pulaski County 562.0

9. Atherton 567.5

10. Owensboro 570.0

11. Harlan County 571.5

12. Bowling Green 574.0

13. Cooper 575.0

14. Ohio County 576.5

15. Lincoln County 584.0

16. Grant County 587.5

17. Fairdale 592.0

18. South Oldham 593.0

19. Nelson County 595.0

20. Whitley County 599.0

21. Southwestern 600.0

22. Greenwood 601.0

23. Anderson County 615.5

24. Woodford County 616.0

25. Christian County 618.0

26. South Laurel 628.0

27. Bullitt Central 635.5

28. Conner 638.0

29. Iroquois 651.0

30. Barren County 655.5

31. Apollo 657.0

32. North Bullitt 659.0

33. Grayson County 663.5

34. Montgomery County 664.5

35. Marshall County 669.0

36. Bullitt East 682.0

37. North Laurel 692.0

38. Graves County 694.5

39. Southern 706.5

 

CLASS 6A

1. Muhlenberg County 715.5

2. Oldham County 729.0

3. Boone County 731.0

4. Fern Creek 741.0

5. Seneca 755.5

6. Campbell County 756.5

7. North Hardin 761.5

8. DuPont Manual 766.5

9. Dixie Heights 767.0

10. Daviess County 770.5

11. Male 785.5

12. Butler 791.0

13. Jeffersontown 791.5

14. Meade County 799.0

15. Ryle 862.5

16. George Rogers Clark 870.0

17. Simon Kenton 873.5

18. Madison Central 879.0

19. Tates Creek 894.5

20. Central Hardin 911.0

21. Ballard 932.5

22. Pleasure Ridge Park 940.0

23. McCracken County 957.0

24. Bryan Station 964.0

25. Lafayette 964.0

26. Henderson County 997.0

27. Paul Dunbar 1095.5

28. Eastern 1116.5

29. Henry Clay 1142.0

30. Scott County 1223.5

31. Trinity 1300.0

32. St. Xavier 1379.0

I'm guessing that, as DragonFire said, the numbers used for the next alignment will be the average number of boys in 2012-13 and 2013-14. If you look at the numbers from 2011-12/2012-13, a few things stand out:

 

Class 4A

-A few noticeable move-downs include John Hardin, Warren Central and Franklin County. All three of those are near the top of the 5A list, which could definitely be fluid.

-As for Covington Catholic and Highlands, I think both will still be in 4A. Highlands is right in the middle of the class, while Covington Catholic is near the top. Covington Catholic appears to be around 20 students below the smallest 5A school, so the Colonels could make the move up.

 

Class 5A

-5A appears to be the class that will, as of now, be affected the least by the potential alignment. Most of the big names are still there, while there is little movement down from 6A.

 

Class 6A

-6A is probably the class that will change the least over the years. Looking at the 2-year numbers it appears that only North Hardin and Jeffersontown are close to making the move up.

 

Certainly this is all speculation and keep in mind that the numbers I've used are only half right. But this does give you an idea of where certain schools are trending for the future alignment.

 

I have been told that the incoming freshman class at CovCath is anticipated to be even larger than last year's 150+ that the school took in. Their departing senior class was 122. Given that the Colonels maintain an almost 100% retention rate from year to year, they'll almost certainly be 5A. Their 11/12 numbers drag the two year average you're using down because they were before that first monster freshman class.

 

Among John Hardin, Warren Central, and Franklin County, I believe only Franklin County has any shot at remaining in 5A and it's slim. They project as the 5th largest 4A school based on 12/13, and schools ahead of them like Doss and South Warren are growing at much higher rates. Franklin County (515) is up 12 males over 11/12 (503), but only 7 over 10/11 (508) before that. In other words, they've been steady. Both Warren Central and John Hardin are significantly down from their 11/12 numbers which pull up their average enough to make it appear possible they'd remain in 5A. John Hardin's 492 males for 12/13 makes it almost impossible that they'd catch up to 5A. That's 39 below CovCath, meaning they'd need to add about 70 males next year to be remotely in the discussion. Given that they've lost 88 males in the last two years, there's no reason to believe that happens for them. And Warren Central, I can just tell you that I know 100% it's not going to increase for them.

 

I believe both Jeffersontown and North Hardin will be comfortably 6A. Southern and Marshall County drop down to 6A, with Marshall County pretty likely to stay there. Fairdale, Owensboro, Atherton, Valley, Madisonville-North Hopkins, and Covington Catholic all project to move into 5A. I believe they'll all stay there given that they're all growth schools. My gut says South Warren will also make the jump.

 

5A for 2015-2018 will become the Bowling Green/Covington Catholic show. If these alignments hold, I don't see anyone beating either one until the finals.

It should be interesting to see how it all plays out. The whole appearance of Kentucky high school football could really change.

I wonder how long CovCath and Highlands play if they are not in the same district? I'd assume that they'd keep the annual rivalry, perhaps play the final regular season game like NewCath/Beechwood. God help the AD who decides to no re-up the deal.

^ I agree, Mex. No way Highlands and CCH stop playing each other. The question is where you put it on the schedule. Beechwood and NCC have played the last regular season game. I think that has been good. A lot of teams like a really tough game just before the playoffs to find out where you stand and what adjustments you might need to make as you enter the playoffs. If their district games are the weakest on the schedule, then making it the last game of the year is the way to do it IMO.

I wonder how long CovCath and Highlands play if they are not in the same district? I'd assume that they'd keep the annual rivalry, perhaps play the final regular season game like NewCath/Beechwood. God help the AD who decides to no re-up the deal.

 

I believe without question that both teams would want to continue this rivalry game albeit without the same state championship implications (which might somewhat reduce the year round time the teams spend preparing for each other--I am not sure what these teams will do with all that new found extra time). That being said, I believe it is safe to saythat the current Highlands AD is in a safe position regardless of whether he continues to schedule the game (but having won 17 of the last 18 regular season contests and always looking for local team that will play them why wouldn't he want to continue it).

I would love to see cov Cath move to 5A, would give NKY 4 shots at bringing state titles to the area. 1A, 2A, 4A and 5A.

I would love to see cov Cath move to 5A, would give NKY 4 shots at bringing state titles to the area. 1A, 2A, 4A and 5A.

 

Don't they already have that opportunity with Cooper and Conner in 5A?

Don't they already have that opportunity with Cooper and Conner in 5A?

 

Especially considering they made it the Finals last year.

I'm guessing that, as DragonFire said, the numbers used for the next alignment will be the average number of boys in 2012-13 and 2013-14. If you look at the numbers from 2011-12/2012-13, a few things stand out:

 

Class 1A

-Bishop Brossart seems almost certain to drop back down to 1A. Using the 2YA, they are #26 in the class. One would expect them to replace Beechwood in District 4, which would be good for the Mustangs.

-Crittenden County and Fort Knox are both in the 1A section. Crittenden County would likely replace Mayfield in the far west district. Fort Knox's addition could mean some changes in District 2 and/or 3.

 

Class 2A

-Mayfield and Webster County both could find their way into this class. Mayfield has a 2YA of 215, but Nicholas County (largest 1A) has a 179, which means Mayfield would really have to decrease.

-Thomas Nelson will likely remain in 2A, but I'm not sure what will happen to their enrollment. When South Warren opened, they were small but then grew. I suspect Thomas Nelson will do the same, although they might not be in 3A until the next alignment.

 

Class 3A

-It would appear that Prestonsburg, Bardstown, Caldwell County and DeSales are all primed to move into 3A. While their numbers are similar to that of the largest schools in 2A, it seems likely at least a couple of them will move up.

-The back end of 3A is also very interesting. As of now, Lexington Catholic (400.5-2YA) and Boyle County (408.5-2YA) seem to be headed for 3A. They are both roughly 20 smaller than the smallest 4A, so they could make up the ground, but we'll see. How different would Class 3A look with some of these names moving in to join Central, Belfry, Breathitt, Larue, Corbin, Garrard, etc.?

 

Class 4A

-The biggest name that looks destined for 4A is Bourbon County. The Colonels were the largest school in 3A and have continued growing. Their 2YA is 458, which is 38 higher than the smallest 4A school.

-It also seems likely that Wayne County will move to 4A, considering they have taken on the closed Monticello High School's students. The Cardinals are actually trending toward the higher end of 4A.

-[/i][/b]

 

There's a decent chance that Corbin will end up in 4A. I could see them with a 2 year avg. enrollment of boys in the 420 - 430 range when the 2013/14 numbers are added in.

There's a decent chance that Corbin will end up in 4A. I could see them with a 2 year avg. enrollment of boys in the 420 - 430 range when the 2013/14 numbers are added in.

 

Corbin currently tracks as the second smallest 4A school based on 2012-13 enrollment only with 417 males. They took a significant jump in size from 11/12 to 12/13 because the departing senior class of 2012 had 78 males and the incoming freshman class of 2016 had 115 males. The sophomore through senior classes also each gained a few individuals apiece, which is not common when comparing to the rest of the state that typically experiences a loss each year.

 

Corbin's departing class of 2013 had 102 males, so they will most likely need to bring in a freshman class roughly around that number to maintain the jump in class. All in all, without knowing that, it's tough to predict whether they'll be in 4A or not because there are several teams that are very, very close to them. Breckinridge County is just below them with 416 males. Greenup County would be the largest 3A school, and they have 414 males. Waggener (409), Pendleton County (407), Paducah Tilghman (404), and Lexington Catholic (402) are all somewhat close as well. Corbin is at least exhibiting growth whereas Breckinridge, Greenup, Waggener, and Pendleton have all declined year over year since 2010/11.

 

Central basically lines up exactly the same as Corbin, and may move up to 4A as well. They check in with 419 males, significantly up from the previous year's 397 tally. Their outgoing senior class had 104 males. if they bring in 100+ this year, they probably will be 4A in 2015.