BGP Severe Weather Alert Day (2/27-28/24)

[nWo]

This is what I was talking about. The data starts around 7:pm this evening. 

 

 

 

[TheDeuce]

25 minutes ago, nWo said:

I was getting my data together. After I posted, I saw you did too. 

I knew you would come with the details!

[nWo]

 

This is what I'm talking about when I say what the soundings are showing. This one is for a point near Cincinnati/NKY around 11 pm. Without going through everything, look at the bottom right box. This is where I get the possible tornado strength. Above it is the possible hazard type. It tells me what the possible hazard type is. 

 

This one is for western Kentucky.

 

[nWo]

 

 

 

[theguru]

Here in Florence I am getting sustained winds of about 15mph out of the south/southwest.

[nWo]

Here are the most recent details for tonight. Large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes—some of which may be significant—are all likely during severe thunderstorms that could last throughout the night over parts of northeastern Illinois and northwest Indiana, as well as the Lower and Middle Ohio Valley.

For tonight, the Ohio Valley's general expectations are still the same as those stated in the prior outlook. Activity will probably develop into swift-moving bowing structures as the night wears on, increasing the possibility of destructive wind gusts and even a few tornadoes. Strong tornadoes may also occur, along with damaging wind gusts of up to 75 mph due to the intensifying low-level flow. Those in the hatched areas have an increased chance to see the different weather modes. 

Here's the predicted timing for tonight's severe weather:

 

 

 

[theguru]

You are doing a great job covering this one @nWo!

[nWo]

2 minutes ago, theguru said:

You are doing a great job covering this one @nWo!

Thank you. This blew up pretty quickly. Oh, I forgot this temperature will be in the 20s Thursday morning.

 

[theguru]

1 minute ago, nWo said:

Thank you. This blew up pretty quickly. Oh, I forgot this temperature will be in the 20s Thursday morning.

I know right on the temps!!  That is the biggest thing to me, cold, super warm, cold, warm, ugh.  

[nWo]

Our next shot at severe weather will be at the start of next week. 

[nWo]

Here are some maps from the HRRR model. It covers the period from 9 pm EST to 4 pm EST Wednesday. The first is the simulated radar. The second is the lightning intensity simulation. The last one is a significant tornado simulation. This shows where significant tornadoes could form. 

I have a severe weather warning area set up for the Cincinnati/NKY area. I will try to send out any warnings on our Twitter page later tonight and early Wednesday morning. 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]