From the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and the southern Great Lakes, there will be a chance of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that could produce huge hail up to two inches in diameter, destructive gusts, and a few tornadoes later this afternoon and overnight. There may be isolated to widely dispersed thunderstorm activity early in the forecast period. The storm's mode and coverage are still mostly unknown; some data point to more isolated development forward of the line, while other data primarily depict linear expansion along the front. Still, these storms should continue eastward into southern Indiana, northern Kentucky, and southwestern Ohio during the course of the night, with the possibility of hail and strong gusts.

 

 

 

There appears to be a growing serious hazard, particularly for those living along the Ohio River.

 

From late this afternoon into the evening and tonight, there is a chance of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which can produce huge hail up to two inches in diameter, destructive gusts, and a few tornadoes. These thunderstorms can occur in areas ranging from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and the southern Great Lakes. The weather will lead to isolated to dispersed storm development, probably in a somewhat bimodal fashion with a relative minimum in between. The storm will first form over the northern Illinois region and then move farther south, closer to the Ohio Valley. The Midwest and Ohio Valley regions should eventually see the emergence of more widespread storms by mid-to-late evening. These storms will then proceed eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley and toward the central Appalachians until the conclusion of the period.

 

 

 

 

 

Guess I'll need to have the NOAA radio on tonight. 

On a side note. Those in the 5-9%  tornado chance should go over your emergency action plan. It doesn't seem like much but there was only a 5% chance when the tornadoes hit Nashville and Bowling Green December. 

Just got bumped up to an Enhanced Risk along the river.

 

Parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes may see severe thunderstorms from late this afternoon into the night, accompanied by big hail, strong gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be quite large.

The majority of 12z information indicates that isolated thunderstorm development will start around or after dusk. Overnight, these storms will get stronger and move generally eastward along the Ohio River, entering portions of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio by early Wednesday morning. The first storms could be isolated and have enough vertical shear to form supercell structures that can contain all major risks. With a greater chance of destructive wind gusts and a few tornadoes, the activity is expected to transform into swiftly moving bowing structures as the night wears on. There is also a chance of a powerful tornado or two.

. The Storm Prediction Center has added an Enhanced risk area for this scenario overnight.

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I just checked the SARS sounding for possible tornado strength. It shows that tornadoes of up to EF-3 strength may be possible within a 25-mile radius of a given point in the Enhanced Risk Area. 

14 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

 

I was getting my data together. After I posted, I saw you did too. 

The weather is wild you take 75 and sunny from yesterday and put it with rain, thunderstorms, wind, maybe hail, and then mid 20s by tomorrow, ugh.

Keep us posted @nWo!

6 minutes ago, theguru said:

The weather is wild you take 75 and sunny from yesterday and put it with rain, thunderstorms, wind, maybe hail, and then mid 20s by tomorrow, ugh.

Keep us posted @nWo!

Sure thing. I was just checking some models, and it appears that the temperatures will rise some before the storms come through. One thing concerning me is that the 60-degree dewpoints are now expected to extend to the Cincinnati/NKY area. There's a conference call by the National Weather Service-Louisville office this afternoon around 2:30. I'll post what I learn around 4 or so. 

 

It is warm and calm here now in NKY.  It was great sleeping weather last night.