Severe Weather Possible Wednesday evening.

[nWo]

Scattered storms likely evolving into a band are forecast with organized multi cells and possibly a few transient supercells.  Strong to severe gusts (55-65   mph) capable of wind damage will be the main threat. As of this morning timing is from 8 pm to 5 am EDT Thursday.  

 

 

[nWo]

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over southeast lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  The primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, though isolated hail and a tornado or two
are also possible.  Conditions will be sufficient to sustain organized storm structures during the afternoon/evening. A couple of supercells will be possible, with a tendency toward organized cluster development with time. Modestly enhanced low-level shear will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes, especially if any supercells can be sustained into the early evening. Otherwise, damaging-wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazard, with some potential for isolated hail given the magnitude of the instability. As of this writing, my thinking is the best chance, while slight, for a possible tornado or two, will be mainly north of I-64.

 

 

The timing still has the storms forming around 8 pm EDT and moving southeasterly throughout the night into Thursday's early morning hours. The storm strength will diminish as they progress through Kentucky.

 

 

 

 

Check back for an update in the morning.

[nWo]

The only change from last night's outlook is that the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 2 Slight Risk Area towards the southwest. 

 

[nWo]

Later this afternoon and early evening, the cold front will sag southward into KY where a very moist and unstable air mass will reside.  Dewpoints are currently in the mid/upper 70s, and afternoon  Winds aloft will strengthen through the afternoon as the upper trough passes to the north.  Model solutions suggest thunderstorms may develop along the front over western/central Kentucky and spread eastward toward West Virginia  after dark.  Given this solution, have extended the Slight Risk Area  westward and maintained the area across the remainder of KY/WV.  Damaging winds should be the main threat.