June 6, 20224 yr A severe weather watch maybe issued later today for portions of Kentucky west of I-65. Mesoscale Discussion 1050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South into the lower Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061734Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts may occur as thunderstorms move northeastward this afternoon. It is not clear that a watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of convection is present across parts of western TN/KY and vicinity early this afternoon, with a smaller, separate cluster located over southern IN. This activity is associated with an MCV from a decayed MCS that occurred earlier this morning across the Ozarks. The stronger low/mid-level flow attendant to this MCV currently lags the leading line of thunderstorms, with only modest winds aloft present downstream into central KY and middle TN based on recent VWP estimates from area radars. Still, as filtered diurnal heating occurs over the next few hours, gradual destabilization of the boundary layer should allow for thunderstorms to become surface based. Occasional strong to damaging winds will be the main threat given the already linear mode. But, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear will probably tend to limit updraft organization and intensity. Accordingly, the overall severe wind threat may remain fairly isolated for the next few hours. It remains unclear whether this activity will strengthen enough to warrant watch issuance, but convective trends will be closely monitored.
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