Severe Weather Watch maybe issued later today (6/6/22)

[nWo]

A severe weather watch maybe issued later today for portions of Kentucky west of I-65.

 

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 1050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South into the lower Ohio
   Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061734Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts may occur as thunderstorms move
   northeastward this afternoon. It is not clear that a watch will be
   needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of convection is present
   across parts of western TN/KY and vicinity early this afternoon,
   with a smaller, separate cluster located over southern IN. This
   activity is associated with an MCV from a decayed MCS that occurred
   earlier this morning across the Ozarks. The stronger low/mid-level
   flow attendant to this MCV currently lags the leading line of
   thunderstorms, with only modest winds aloft present downstream into
   central KY and middle TN based on recent VWP estimates from area
   radars. Still, as filtered diurnal heating occurs over the next few
   hours, gradual destabilization of the boundary layer should allow
   for thunderstorms to become surface based. Occasional strong to
   damaging winds will be the main threat given the already linear
   mode. But, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear will probably tend
   to limit updraft organization and intensity. Accordingly, the
   overall severe wind threat may remain fairly isolated for the next
   few hours. It remains unclear whether this activity will strengthen
   enough to warrant watch issuance, but convective trends will be
   closely monitored.