Category 2 Slight Risk for Severe Storms (2/17/22)

[nWo]

Severe thunderstorms are possible across most of Kentucky on Thursday. A surface low associated with a shortwave trough will be over Oklahoma early Thursday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near this low as well as along and just ahead of a dryline extending southward from the low. Low to mid-60s are anticipated in western Kentucky. The type of storms is somewhat in question. They will mostly be common garden variety thunderstorms. It is possible that a more coherent storm line could form. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat. A tornado or two can not be ruled out.

 

Check back for an update later today.

 

[nWo]

I decided to do a update this morning. The tornado threat has increased especially for portions of western Kentucky.

 

The following are radars from the NAM and NAM4km models. The NAM4km is a high resolution model and each panel is 1 hour apart where the NAM's are 3 hour apart. The period covered by the models is from 10 am EST/9 central Thursday to 1 am EST/ 12 am central Friday.

 

NAM

 

NAM4km

 

The thin line of storms extending southwestward from the low that what needs to be watched. I believe along this line will come the main severe weather threat. Also where possible tornadoes could form. The main threat area will be western Kentucky.

 

The arrows indicate the line I'm talking about. 

 

 

This is where and when I think the main tornado threat will be Thursday. The threat will diminish as the line progress eastward across Kentucky.

 

 

Check back for update later today.

[ChickenWyngz]

Praying for WKY in this. Hope they avoid more damage. 

[nWo]

1 hour ago, ChickenWyngz said:

Praying for WKY in this. Hope they avoid more damage. 

If the information I've been seeing about the upcoming severe weather season is accurate portions of western Kentucky will be in an area that could see above-average severe weather.

[ChickenWyngz]

1 hour ago, nWo said:

If the information I've been seeing about the upcoming severe weather season is accurate portions of western Kentucky will be in an area that could see above-average severe weather.

I hate that. 

[nWo]

The severe weather threat is increasing especially for portions of western Kentucky. I just checked the latest model guidance. The tornado threat has increased. A Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for portions of central and western Tennessee. If the model guidance continues I fully expect the Enhance Risk Area to be expanded to include portions of Kentucky. I'll post an update later today.

 

 

[nWo]

Everyone should be going over their emergency action plan. If you don't have one you should prepare one now. Don't wait until the severe weather is imminent. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/ama/severesafetyplan

[nWo]

Wednesday evening update.

 

The Severe weather threat continues. First, for western Kentucky, the threat of severe weather will be most of the day on Thursday. I think the main threat will be later in the afternoon. Brief tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible. My confidence is growing in the fact that a high-impact system will affect the area in and around western Kentucky. Model guidance is showing some of the tornadoes could reach EF-2 to EF-3 range.

 

For central Kentucky from around I-65 to just east of I-75 widespread rain with embedded storms. Severe wind gusts of 60+ mph will be possible in the gust showers/storms. Isolated tornadoes will be possible in southern Indiana and central. Timing appears to be Thursday afternoon into the evening hours.

 

For this update, I'm just using the NAM 4km model guidance.

My thinking is the main line of storms will be along or just ahead of the dryline that will traverse eastward across Kentucky. The following map is from 3 pm EST/2 pm EST Thursday to 1 am EST/12 am central Friday.

 

The dry line.

 

This is the simulated radar.

 

 

I will update everyone in the morning. More than likely I will be going into a severe weather alert day mode then. Everyone should be weather award on Thursday.