Tropical Storm Fred

[nWo]

The tropics are starting to heat up as we enter the halfway point of this hurricane season. Invest  94L could affect the Gulf or East Coast of the United States next week. 

 

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 
to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas along with those on the Gulf and East Coast of the U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

 

[swamprat]

Gas, Propane, Spam, Canned Tuna, Chicken, and Corned Beef. Canned Veggies and Crackers. 

I'm set.

[nWo]

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 65.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola 
on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.  Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

 

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches

[swamprat]

Yaba daba dooooo!!!!

 

[nWo]

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 70.1 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola this 
afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and 
the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of
the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Weakening is expected through tonight as the center of Fred crosses 
Hispaniola.  Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday 
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.  Santo Domingo, Dominican 
Republic, recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

 

 

[doomer]

I now live 20 miles south of Montgomery, AL.  It looked like Fred was going to be an event for us, so I battened down the hatches.  Thankfully, Fred decided to jog to the east of us and all we received were some welcome winds.