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End of the year snow?


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I was checking the CFS long rang model for possible snow events. Something interesting showed up for the end of December. A Colorado low pressure is forecast to form then move southeast into Texas before it swings northeastward towards Kentucky. A Colorado low is system that reforms after it moves east of the Rocky Mountains. These lows can cause some extreme weather conditions. Also attention needs to be paid to the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on the track of the low and how much moisture from the gulf moves into the Ohio Valley some significant wintry precipitation could fall. Also it depends on the timing of the cold air moving into Kentucky.







The following two maps show what type of precipitation that could fall in Kentucky and where.




 Now let me end with this. The possible scenario is three weeks away and we all know things will change between now and then. So take this with a grain of salt until we get closer. I just wanted to let everyone know what I'm seeing. It was the CFS that I was looking at a couple of weeks ago that let me know about the system that just pasted through Kentucky. 

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3 hours ago, PP1 said:

Do you think we will have nothing between now and then?

There's a slight chance for this weekend but after that the models are showing nothing till then but with weather that can change quickly. 

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Here's an update on the possible snow New Year's weekend.

First I want to show everyone the Climate Forecast Model's 500 mb Height Anomaly map. You can see a low forming around the pan handle of Texas on New Year's Eve during the day. Along with the cold air associated with the low. Then it will progress towards and move just south of Kentucky through Tennessee. For now the precipitation is forecast to start off as rain for portions of central and southern Kentucky. For now it is showing all snow for the Cincinnati/NKY area. The first system will exit out of Kentucky sometime on the 2nd of January. An Alberta Clipper will form and move southeastward towards Kentucky on the 3rd. It will be followed by some of coldest air of the season. Low temps could be in the low to mid teens by Monday morning the 4th.



The second map shows both the low pressure systems I've mention along with the precipitation fields. 




This map shows the cold temperatures I also mentioned.



The last map shows the possible snow on the ground. Now this is not how much snow will fall. Just where is might be and the possible amount.



 I will continue to watch this situation and post updates as we get closer to the time period.

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If what the CFS is showing at the present time comes true. We could be in for a major winter event to end 2020 and to start 2021. Remember this is just a snap shot in time.

First for the 500 mb Height Anomaly. It is really showing a bitter cold air mass moving southeast out of Canada and just grazing portions of Kentucky. it shows cold air temps from the mid teens for the lows and mid 20s to low 30s for highs. This Tuesday the 29th to New Years Eve night.




Now for the possible wintry precipitation. The first low pressure system coming in from Canada looks to move southeast towards the New England area.  The effects of this system could be felt in the eastern portions of Kentucky. The precipitation should start as rain then switch to snow. before moving out. The main system I'm watching will approach Kentucky from the southwest on New Years Eve. This system and its after affects could cause major impacts on Kentucky. We could see a wintry mixture from rain, freezing rain, ice then end as some snow before ending New Years night.


'Remember the following is showing the possible snow cover on the ground. It is not a prediction of snow accumulation totals.



Now for what we may be instore for Sunday the 3rd into Monday the 4th. If what the CFS is showing we could be in for frigid temperatures we haven't seen since 2019. The morning lows for Monday morning the 4th could be in mid-teens below zero.

First once again I want to show the CFS 500 mb Height Anomaly. It really shows the cold air associated with the low pressure system merging with another arctic air mass moving southeast from Canada. The following temperature map shows morning lows as low as -15°!




We are still a couple of weeks away so things will more than likely change between now and then. I will be watching it and posting updates as we get closer.



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