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South Oldham vs. Seneca Predictions/Updates

ColonelMike

By ColonelMike
in KY Football (High School)

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ColonelMike

ColonelMike

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The South Oldham Dragons return home after suffering their first loss of the season, a 28-0 defeat on the road at the hands of Class 5A top 10 North Bullitt.

It's the first time in many, many years that South Oldham has found itself facing an uphill battle for the District crown.

I wouldn't start crying too much for Jamie Reed's Dragons too quickly, though.   South has had 10 straight winning seasons under Reed, and has won 10 or more games five straight years.   Over the last five years, the Dragons have advanced no less than the Regional finals, and have reached the state semi-finals twice.

In short, the Dragons have gone beyond a good 2 or 3 year streak; they have created an enduring program that expects to win.   Right now, that's a program whose pride has been a bit wounded, and a wounded Dragon is never a good thing to encounter.

Enter Seneca.

Head Coach Keith Eckloff's second team at Seneca has had a rough start to the season, scoring just six points during an 0-3 start, while giving up 151 points.   The RedHawks were shutout in back-to-back weeks to start the season against a pair of 1-3 squads, the Southern Trojans and the Atherton Rebels, before losing 68-6 to district front-runner North Bullitt two weeks ago.

Eckloff brings a painfully young team into Crestwood to face an angry bunch of Dragons.   Per the KHSAA website, 41 of 48 roster players are freshmen or sophomores.

But the RedHawks have had an off week to circle the wagons and re-group.   The first task is to breathe some new life / consistency into a youthful offense, led by freshman quarterback Calvin Kafondo.    Kafondo also leads the team in rushing, and is critical to the RedHawks' success.    I don't really know much about the RedHawks yet - and the online stats for Seneca are incomplete - but I'll try to post more later this week as I learn more.

South Oldham, with Jamie Reed entering his 11th season as head coach, will be the heavy favorite in this game.   Reed got his 100th victory at the Crestwood school two weeks ago in a win over district rival Atherton, and has never had a losing season at South.   The Dragons (3-1) are a different team than the one that won 12 games last year and lost in the regional finals to Bowling Green; 23 seniors departed from that talented squad.   Alex Brown is the new signal-caller for South Oldham, and he's had a lukewarm start to the season, completing less than 50% of his passes, while throwing for 329 yards, 3 TDs / 3 INT,  but he's shown some potential and has a strong enough arm to make the throws.   Much of the early inconsistency in the passing game has centered around the timing as the first-year starter at QB and some brand-new receivers get on the same page - something the abbreviated pre-season has undoubtedly had a negative impact on.

The Dragons' forte, of course, is the running game, however, and senior fullback Kaden Anderson leads the way with 275 yards and 2 TDs, followed by senior wingback Ethan Snider, with 239 yards and 3 TDs.    The two combine as a potent 1-2 punch, mixing "thunder and lightning" (to steal a phrase):   Anderson is the bruising between the tackles, hard to bring down runner....while Snider brings the speed to the rushing attack.   Sophomores Jack McCubbin (139 yards) and Jeffery Burton (157 yards on just 13 carries) both provide explosiveness and give Reed serious depth in the running game.

On defense, star linebacker Austin Covington leads the way with 33 tackles on the season.

Last year, South defeated Seneca, 68-0, behind a rushing attack that rushed for 210 yards and 7 TDs, and a defense that surrendered just 91 yards in total offense.

This week's game will be limited in terms of attendance on site at the game, however, video coverage will begin at 7 pm ET on Friday, on www.pegasussportsky.com.    South Oldham fans - Pegasus Sports is donating proceeds from the purchase of the High Definition broadcast to the schools to help offset revenue shortfalls due to COVID.    As all sports at the high schools depending upon the revenues generated by the football program, the lack of fans in the stands is negatively impacting all athletes.   Please consider purchasing the HD version of the broadcast to help support all three high school athletic programs in Oldham County and the athletes at those schools....

CM

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  • theguru changed the title to South Oldham vs. Seneca Predictions/Updates
ColonelMike

ColonelMike

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Seneca going through a rough spell....only 3 wins in the last 6 seasons.....

six coaches in the last 10 years....  

The Redhawks have been shutout in 28 of their last 57 games (6 seasons).

The last Seneca team with a non-losing record was the 2008 team, which went 6-6.

The last Redhawk team with a winning record - and what a great year it was for Seneca - was the 2003 team that went 10-2 under coach Lonnie Oldham and beat Trinity.

In contrast....

South Oldham's head coach Jamie Reed is in his 11th season.... 

...The Dragons have never had a losing record under Reed

...the last five South teams have all reached at least the Region championship.

...In 10+ years under Reed, South has been shutout just 3 times (most recently, last week, in a 28-0 loss to North Bullitt)

...until last week's lost to the Eagles, the Dragons hadn't lost a district game since 2014.

Two programs at different ends of the spectrum right now.   

BUT.....

....there's a reason the game is played on the field and not on message boards....

...high school athletes are notoriously unpredictable.   Which one had a fight with his girlfriend today?   Who failed a test?   Who got grounded by his parents?   Who saw a zit in the mirror this morning????  

...high school athletes - even the better ones - also are far more inconsistent than older athletes.  Obviously.  Goes with the turf.

...high school teams often struggle not to be affected by peer expectations.  (i.e., I'm supposed to win this week easily, so maybe I don't need to work too hard.....)

...and, of course, there's just the random factor called chance/luck/fate/karma.   We've all seen games where the ball just seemed too hot to handle for one team; a game where every pass was tipped and intercepted, every run seemed to result in a fumble, etc., etc.   I once broadcast a game in which there were 11 turnovers....

None of this changes the fact that South Oldham should win this game handily.   But Pegasus Sports will be broadcasting tonight, beginning at 7 pm ET at www.pegasussportsky.com.    

Good luck to both teams!

 

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