May 19, 20206 yr I was looking at forecast models for river levels in Falmouth. As of right now, the models are expecting a crest of 43 feet. The models have been revised up twice since I looked last night. For reference, flood of 1997 the Licking River crested at 52 feet. This situation is worth keeping an eye on as it develops throughout the day.
May 19, 20206 yr Author River and Lake Levels - Licking River - Gauge FLMK2 This link updates river levels and forecasted river levels.
May 20, 20206 yr Luckily there's not much rain in the forecast after the next 24 hours. This is the key factor. In '97 the area had been drenched with steady rain, and then on the day of the flood, with the ground already saturated, we had an hours long deluge, that created a major flash-flood, caused the river to come through as a major wall of water, and not only flooded the town, but moved homes and businesses off of their foundations because of the ferocity of the surge. Phase one, the saturation phase, has now taken place. Heavy steady rains that will cause the river to crest at 43 feet (hopefully), but there doesn't appear to be a major "second shoe" that would cause a torrent of water to rocket through the town creating the devastation experienced in '97.
May 20, 20206 yr Crisis seems to be averted today as they've called off evacuation orders and the river is receding.
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