Chance of severe weather the next couple of days.

[nWo]

Extreme western Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for scattered storms on Wednesday. At this time it looks like if these storms develop on they will be late on Wednesday.

 

 

Thursday appears to be the best chance for more organized storms. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Kentucky west of I-75 in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. Even though it is not included according to the modeling data I've seen today those in northern Kentucky should keep an eye on the weather. If the modeling trend continues I wouldn't be surprised to see northern Kentucky and the area around Bowling Green in at least a Marginal Risk Area. The Bowling Green area may even be put in a category 2 Slight Risk Area. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

 

This is what the NAM 3km is showing for Thursday. Possible strong to severe storms could be entering western Kentucky around 6 am EDT. They should progress eastward across Kentucky and lose some strength as it gets closer to the I-75 corridor.

 

 

I will be watching and post an update when possible.

Edited May 7, 2019 by nWo

[nWo]

As I expected the Storm Prediction Center has increased the chance for strong to severe storms for most of Kentucky on Thursday. There is now a category 2 Slight Risk area that covers Kentucky from western Kentucky all the way to around the I-75 corridor. East of I-75 portions of Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for scattered strong to severe storms.

 

 

 

Instability is expected to rise as a moist area moves northward into Kentucky. This along with a strong low-level jet stream and heating will aid in destabilization. Storms capable of producing damaging winds are possible, even a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

 

The following EHI map shows the above pretty good. The timing is from 7 am EDT to 7 pm EDT.

 

 

The following will show the early morning showers and thunderstorms in western Kentucky around 7 am EDT. They will move eastward across Kentucky during the day. Just at the end of the run if everyone looks back into western Kentucky around 7 pm there appears to be a second thinner area of showers and thunderstorms developing that could move eastward across Kentucky during the evening and overnight hours.

 

 

Check back for updates. Also if you already haven't signed to follow our Twitter page please do so We send out weather warnings for parts of Kentucky, southern Indiana, and Ohio.

 

http://bluegrasspreps.com/weather/bgp-com-weather-342822.html

[nWo]

 

Clouds look to slow surface heating so the severe threat has lessened. Isolated strong/damaging wind gust will be the main concern for later today. I will be watching the various modes of information I use and post updates when warranted. As always I will send what weather warnings I can via Twitter if they are issued.