Bengals First Round Draft Pick Predictions

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

Unless one of the top guys falls to the Bengals, then you don't take WR in the first round IMO.

 

Are you defining a "top guy" as one of the big three WR's? If so, there is zero.zero chance they are there at 21. I think Devin Smith is their (Duke's) 4th choice, but I don't think 1 and 2 will be there, and I think he'll get out-voted on their 3rd choice. In case I wasn't clear enough earlier, I just wanted to make sure no one thinks I'm implying that they have Devin Smith as their #1 target tonight.

[futurecoach]

I don't think anyone at the Bengals believes Marvin Jones is a bona fide #2 receiver consistently.

 

You clearly aren't high on Smith, which is fine, but someone is going to take him tonight in spite of only being able to run one route and his weakness as a route runner.

 

Question how did Marvin Jones prove he was not a legit #2 receiver when he was healthy? I mean if you want to say they are worried because he is injury prone that is fine because that would be a legit concern. However when he was healthy he showed he was a legit #2 and that also showed because even with a QB like Dalton they ended up in the top 10 in the NFL that year in passing and Dalton threw more than 30 touchdown passes. With over 10 of those touchdowns going to Jones. I know its hard for people to remember since he didn't play a down last year, however the passing offense the year he was healthy was a big threat to teams and the numbers show that.

[futurecoach]

Are you defining a "top guy" as one of the big three WR's? If so, there is zero.zero chance they are there at 21. I think Devin Smith is their (Duke's) 4th choice, but I don't think 1 and 2 will be there, and I think he'll get out-voted on their 3rd choice. In case I wasn't clear enough earlier, I just wanted to make sure no one thinks I'm implying that they have Devin Smith as their #1 target tonight.

 

You are correct in that I am not a big Devin Smith guy. He is fast no doubt, but plenty of fast guys don't work out at WR in the NFL. IMO Ted Ginn was a better player than him, and well Ted Ginn has shown he definitely wasn't a 1st round pick guy. Not saying he won't end up being good, but with him basically only running the go route in college, that is to big of a chance to use a 1st round pick on him. If he slides to the 2nd round though, then I have no problem with it.

[ESPNdeux]

I think they'll take the highest rated OT on their board left. Which from everything I hear might be this Fisher kid from Oregon... I'm not too thrilled with the reports that he lacks strength. But they've seemed to do pretty well with their high picked OLine, so I trust them in that.

 

I think I'd take the highest rated player on my board that isn't a RB...

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

Question how did Marvin Jones prove he was not a legit #2 receiver when he was healthy? I mean if you want to say they are worried because he is injury prone that is fine because that would be a legit concern. However when he was healthy he showed he was a legit #2 and that also showed because even with a QB like Dalton they ended up in the top 10 in the NFL that year in passing and Dalton threw more than 30 touchdown passes. With over 10 of those touchdowns going to Jones. I know its hard for people to remember since he didn't play a down last year, however the passing offense the year he was healthy was a big threat to teams and the numbers show that.

 

Sorry if I (or those that aren't sold on him) don't get bowled over by his 51 catches (in 80 targets) and 712 yards. Sure, the 10 TD's are great, but his overall production isn't all that hot. I think he is a great citizen and a solid player, but I don't buy him as a legit #2 .

[futurecoach]

Sorry if I (or those that aren't sold on him) don't get bowled over by his 51 catches (in 80 targets) and 712 yards. Sure, the 10 TD's are great, but his overall production isn't all that hot. I think he is a great citizen and a solid player, but I don't buy him as a legit #2 .

 

What exact numbers would you expect a number 2 receiver to have then playing in Cincinnati with Dalton as the QB and Green as the #1 receiver? Do you really expect to have two 1000 yard receivers in Cincinnati with Dalton at QB?

 

You do realize 51 catches on 80 targets is a pretty darn good completion percentage for a QB to a WR. That means when he did throw the ball to Jones it was completed 63% of the time. Also out of those 51 catches, 36 catches went for first downs. He also is averaging over 14 yards per catch. So that means he is opening up the field some with 14 yards per catch and getting first down. Then out of his 10 touchdowns, 9 of his touchdowns came in the red zone. So it shows he is a threat in the red zone when people completely double team Green.

 

So what exact numbers would you expect from a #2 in Cincy with Dalton? Its not like they have a Aaron Rodgers back there he will spread the ball around. They have a QB who stares down one receiver based off of his pre read off the line. So you have to assume there probably were other times where he was open, but Dalton just got stuck staring down Green. Whatever #2 we have here is not going to put up 1000 yards along with Green with a QB like Dalton who doesn't go through his progressions.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

.....

 

FC, you should just start every NFL post you make with "I hate Dalton".

[Voice of Reason]

I am glad to see the discussion on WR. MTGL is singing my song. I hope Marvin Jones is a legit number 2 but one half season of success makes me wonder.

 

I know Dalton doesn't have a strong arm but he did lead the NFL in completions of 20 yards or more 2 years ago

[futurecoach]

.....

 

FC, you should just start every NFL post you make with "I hate Dalton".

 

Ha no Hellbird would get mad at me, because that is his thing. However I have tried to give Dalton the benefit of the doubt. After the first two years I said it was to early to completely judge him because he could get better. Which I don't think he is the worst in the league, but IMO his win loss record has benefited from having a good team around him more than his play. In the NFL you need to take advantage of your windows when you have them, and I think the Bengals have been in that Window and tired of seeing Dalton make the same throws and mistakes in big games. It sounds bad but the Pro Bowl was very telling for me. Every QB there did just fine throwing to WR's they barely played with and finding the open guy. However Dalton even in that game stared down one guy and flat out looked bad. With that said I hope Dalton goes out and proves me wrong and gets it done.

[futurecoach]

I am glad to see the discussion on WR. MTGL is singing my song. I hope Marvin Jones is a legit number 2 but one half season of success makes me wonder.

 

I know Dalton doesn't have a strong arm but he did lead the NFL in completions of 20 yards or more 2 years ago

 

Yes the same season that Marvin Jones was healthy and played all year lol. If Marvin Jones is fully healthy then he is a legit #2 and the stats show that not just for him but overall the difference he made. They were a top 10 passing offense in yards, and Dalton even threw over 30 touchdowns. Not having him really hurt last year.

 

Now as I mentioned before with him being injury prone though, I definitely can understand needing to draft another WR, but I just don't think they should do it with the 1st pick.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

If Marvin Jones is fully healthy then he is a legit #2 and the stats show that not just for him but overall the difference he made.

 

You're putting a lot of stock in one season. You're also forgetting that the year before he was very pedestrian when he got on the field. Last year the passing game was atrocious, and obviously losing Marvin was a factor, but I believe losing Eifert was a bigger issue. The most glaring takeaway from last year was that Sanu can't be counted on to be more than a 3rd or 4th option. SO. MANY. DROPS.

 

I'd expect the Bengals' #2 guy to threaten 75 catches and 900 yards. I'd like to see A.J. get fewer targets. Make things less predictable. I'm not anti-Marvin Jones at all, I just know he has been in the league 3 years and had one season of note. Hard to count on him completely.

 

To be clear again, I'd much prefer they take one of the first three names in my post.

[futurecoach]

You're putting a lot of stock in one season. You're also forgetting that the year before he was very pedestrian when he got on the field. Last year the passing game was atrocious, and obviously losing Marvin was a factor, but I believe losing Eifert was a bigger issue. The most glaring takeaway from last year was that Sanu can't be counted on to be more than a 3rd or 4th option. SO. MANY. DROPS.

 

I'd expect the Bengals' #2 guy to threaten 75 catches and 900 yards. I'd like to see A.J. get fewer targets. Make things less predictable. I'm not anti-Marvin Jones at all, I just know he has been in the league 3 years and had one season of note. Hard to count on him completely.

 

To be clear again, I'd much prefer they take one of the first three names in my post.

 

Lets not forget that his first season he didn't start out the year as the starter. Armon Binns did, and they were using Sanu and Hawkins in the slot. Then when the Bengals realized Binns wasn't getting it done, Marvin Jones was set to start the fifth game of the year that year he hurt his knee in practice and missed the next five games. When he came back there were only fives games left, and at the very end of the year he started to start and had 5 catches each against Pittsburgh and then Baltimore and then 3 more in the playoffs. So he has shown when he gets on the field he can produce. But as I mentioned he definitely has shown to be injury prone and that is why I am all for drafting a WR, but just not in the 1st round. If he is healthy he is a legit #2 but then you would also have Sanu, James Wright and whatever guy they draft. So they would make a pretty good WR core. So I am not against drafting one, I just don't think you use the 1st round pick on one.

[futurecoach]

The big thing is I truly believe thinking a #2 WR could get 75 catches and 900 yards receiving with Dalton at QB and Green as the #1 is very unrealistic IMO. As I mentioned he doesn't go through progressions, he locks in on a guy and that's it. Which I wish he would spread it around more but I doubt it happens. Not to mention with the Bengals have a guy like Jeremy Hill, who I believe will end up being one of the top 5 RB's in the league for many years. The Bengals won't pass as much. So we know Green probably still would get his 1000, but to expect another guy to get 900 and 75 catches would be very hard unless we get another QB.

[futurecoach]

AJ Green was thrown to by Dalton 180 times in 2013. That was 100 more throws to Green than to Jones. So even with that Jones still was able to put up 51 catches for 700 yards and 10 TD's. So as I said I am not sure how much better stats you could expect from a #2 when Dalton locks in on Green so much. I think that shows Jones did exactly what people say they wanted a #2 opposite of Green to do. To stretch the field well he averaged 14 yards per catch, to be another target in the red zone besides Green well 9 of his 10 touchdowns came in the red zone. Not to mention that obviously helped Green out having him because Green had over 1400 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns himself. But the big key for Marvin Jones is staying healthy and that is a legit concern though, but if he is fully healthy he has shown he can produce as the #2 .