KHSAA Sweet 16 Draw Show (2/5/15 @ 1 PM, ET)

[Randy Parker]

1. 7th

2. 11th

3. 2nd

 

4. 6th

5. 9th

6. 14th

7. 12th

8. 3rd

 

9. 5th

10. 10th

 

11. 13th

12. 4th

13. 1st

14. 15th

 

15. 8th

16. 16th

 

 

Factors:

 

- The Top Team(s) Expected To Go

 

- Have Those Top Teams Been To Rupp Recently?

(Experience is huge, especially in first round games).

 

- The Depth of The Region

(Too deep can hurt because the 12th could be beaten up).

(Not very deep isn't good because 1 upset could destroy it).

 

1. 7th

 

 

 

2. 11th

3. 9th

4. 2nd

5. 12th

6. 6th

7. 3rd

8. 5th

9. 4th

10. 14th

11. 10th

12. 8th

13. 13th

14. 15th

15. 1st

16. 16th

[JokersWild24]

As of February 4th, and understanding that many regions have several legitimate contenders, would you say the above teams are the ones that are "expected to go"?

 

Some regions I had one team expected, other teams multiple teams expected. Of those, mine look a lot like yours.

 

Here's what I'd have/who I considered as a fairly legit threat to win the region and considered what it'd mean in terms of how they represented the region at Rupp:

 

1. 7th (Ballard) Trinity, Central, Manual

2. 11th (LexCath) Bryan Station #1, alpha: Dunbar, Henry Clay, Lafayette, LCA, Mad Cen, Scott Co

3. 2nd (Henderson County) Hopkinsville

 

4. 6th (Doss) PRP after gap because I like Mayberry so much

5. 9th (CovCath) Holmes, Newport Central Catholic

6. 14th (Knott County Central) Perry Co Central

 

7. 12th (Boyle County) #1a - Wayne Co, Southwestern, Lincoln Co, West Jess, Mercer Co

 

8. 3rd (Owensboro) Apollo

 

9. 5th (Taylor County)

10. 10th (Mason County) Campbell Co.

 

11. 13th (Clay County) Others could beat them, but they're the favorite right now (more below)

 

12. 4th (Bowling Green) Maybe a Warren Central too

13. 1st (Calloway County) Maaaayyybbbeee Tilghman too.

14. 15th (Johnson Central) Like them a lot, record be darned. Also Lawrence Co.

 

15. 8th (Owen County) Maybe throw in Oldham Co & Collins too

16. 16th (Elliott County) Toss in Boyd Co (even at #1) & add in Rowan Co too

 

 

 

To the above: I probably left some teams out. There are some teams that I don't think are quite as good as the ones in front of them, but I can see how they might slip past them in regional play and/or in a one-out scenario.

 

For me, if you take a Clay County or Johnson Central (who've been to the Sweet 16 multiple years in a row, then you know that they know what it takes to win their region, and that the are less likely to come out completely shell-shocked in Rupp). Same time, if one of those teams don't go, then drawing their region becomes infinitely more beatable just because someone like a Knox Central in the 13th or a Lawrence County in the 15th who hasn't been there in awhile would be more prone to getting lost in the magnitude of it all.

 

Take a team like Taylor County out of the equation in the 5th, maybe Mason Co out of it in the 10th, and Doss in the 6th, and you start liking your chances against them better as well.

 

9th Region, I've heard good things about Covington Catholic and think they are a solid favorite to win it. If NCC or even Holmes were to get there though, it wouldn't be the end of the world for their chances to win some games either though.

 

For the 7th, 11th, 2nd, and 12th, you know that whoever comes out is going to be pretty good. There are more than 2 or even 3 or more quality teams in each of those regions, so there's no way you get there unless you've beaten a few good teams.

 

I consider the 14th and 3rd "one favorite, one legit underdog" type regions. In each, Knott County Central and Owensboro are the favorite, and both would be repeating. Same time, Perry County Central and Apollo aren't quite as good, but have the talent to play with them, and there wouldn't be a huge, huge drop-off in the region's representation at Rupp if either did. If both of those were beaten too though, then I think that's where you see the region's reputation as a contender take a real dive.

 

In the 11th, I think this is the kind of year that comes along every once in awhile where you usually see one of the Lexington-Fayette Publics or a Madison Central go. Most years, it's Scott County and/or Lexington Catholic and then one other top city team trying to unseat one or both of them. This year, I think it's fair to say that Lexington Catholic and Scott Co have dropped back down to the field some. The team who was the favorite early on, Henry Clay, then lost their (and maybe even the region's) best player to injury, and lost claim to the top spot. Throw that all together and you have a ton of teams that are even with each other. For some reason, I see too many teams smelling blood in the water for Lexington Catholic and Scott County to get out. I like LCA, but wonder if they are both athletic & experienced enough to string together the number of games they'll have to have to pull it off. If I had to pick a team to get to the finals, it'd be Lexington Catholic, but I'm probably not going to pick them to win it all. I say that because I'm not sure that their best is going to be enough to beat a team like a Bryan Station, Dunbar, Henry Clay, or Madison Central who just gets hot. Now, with that said, the really hard part is picking which one of those four larger publics that I just mentioned will be the one who: #1.) gets hot against a Lex Cath, #2.) maybe gets a good draw at region (i.e., getting a Madison Southern, Frankfort, or Woodford County instead of a Bryan Station/Henry Clay/Lex Cath/Dunbar/LCA, and/or #3.) maybe plays a "bad" game that they just find a way to survive and move on to play again. The three aforementioned things are the types of things that can define a championship team's run, but right now there are so many unknown variables and too much parity in terms of talent to really say that you know who'll do what.

[gold sunrise]

Excited to see how the draws will come out for both boys and girls today.

[UKfan1977]

15th got a terrible Draw.

[Wireman]

What was it?

[Wireman]

14/1

4/16

11/12

15/7

13/6

9/10

5/2

8/3

[nkuclubbaseball19]

8-3

5-2

9-10

13-6

15-7

11-12

4-16

14-1

[Guest]

What was it?

 

15 plays 7

[Wireman]

[Wireman]

15 plays 7

 

Let's be honest, unless they got 16, every draw is a bad one for 15.

[Guest]

Let's be honest, unless they got 16, every draw is a bad one for 15.

 

True. unless a mountain school gets hot, 16 has a chance of beating 4 just depending on who comes out of each region.

[Wireman]

True. unless a mountain school gets hot, 16 has a chance of beating 4 just depending on who comes out of each region.

 

I don't see 16 winning a game but anything is possible under the bright lights.

[Guest]

I don't see 16 winning a game but anything is possible under the bright lights.

 

True, the 11 and 12 match up might be good

[hoops5]

Closing this thread. Join the results discussion here:

http://bluegrasspreps.com/ky-boys-basketball/khsaa-whitaker-bank-298176.html