NKY 5A could be interesting, if they use the two year enrollment numbers. Looking at the numbers Conner, Cooper, CovCath, South Oldham, and Grant County could be one district but, if a team moves up to 6A that could put Boone County in 5A. That might lead to a Boone, Conner, Cooper, CovCath, and Grant County district.

 

What is used the 2 or 4 year enrollment numbers?

 

The one in my initial post is 2 year, the one 3 posts later is 4 year.

 

As for what the KHSAA uses, they've been using 2 years for at least the last couple of alignments. But it has been suggested to me after initially posting that they may be moving to a 4 year and that even possibly further than that has been suggested. There have been times I've thought 2 years was too shallow, but speaking from personal experience, I know some schools don't remotely resemble now what they did 4 years ago, and it seems to be a reach to me that an enrollment number could be used that would be 8 years removed by the end of the alignment. (A 4 year model would include 10/11, 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, and the alignment would run through the 18/19 season. A senior from 2010/2011 enrollment year would be 26 by the time the alignment was over.)

Will Highlands request to move up with them?

 

Yes..

Yes..

 

The better question is would it be granted? There is a NKY district in both 4A and 5A and would still be one under either a 2 year or 4 year model. If they stuck to he tenant that only geographic purposes can be used to move up, that wouldn't seem to be a hardship for Highlands.

Will Pendleton County return to playing a full membership schedule or will they still play as an independent and not qualify for the playoffs?

 

They can return to playoff competition when the new alignment takes affect.

The better question is would it be granted? There is a NKY district in both 4A and 5A and would still be one under either a 2 year or 4 year model. If they stuck to he tenant that only geographic purposes can be used to move up, that wouldn't seem to be a hardship for Highlands.

 

I agree, I don't think it would be granted. Highlands is needed in 4A under these projections to have a N. Ky. 4A district. It actually would be a hardship on the other 4A schools if they allowed Highlands to move up.

 

I am bumming that Beechwood isn't moving up to 2A. I kept hearing it was pretty certain that Beechwood would move up to 2A but these projections have them in 1A.

I am bumming that Beechwood isn't moving up to 2A. I kept hearing it was pretty certain that Beechwood would move up to 2A but these projections have them in 1A.

 

Fort Knox is to blame. They took a pretty good jump in one year to rise above. They increased by 21 males while Beechwood only went up 6.

3A looks awesome if it plays out.

The better question is would it be granted? There is a NKY district in both 4A and 5A and would still be one under either a 2 year or 4 year model. If they stuck to he tenant that only geographic purposes can be used to move up, that wouldn't seem to be a hardship for Highlands.

I agree and if Highlands was granted a move up that would pretty much screw any sort of district for 4A in the NKY area and all the remaining schools would have to move up or down probably.

The better question is would it be granted? There is a NKY district in both 4A and 5A and would still be one under either a 2 year or 4 year model. If they stuck to he tenant that only geographic purposes can be used to move up, that wouldn't seem to be a hardship for Highlands.

 

First of all, great work on the projections. Very interesting study.

 

Quick question focusing on the bolded. You mentioned that Cooper petitioned to move up last time. If geographic purposes are the only reason that a move up can be granted, why were they moved up? there was a NKY district in both 4A and 5A then as well.

 

I ask simply for clarification purposes, as it seems a lot of teams were noted in your projections as requesting to make moves last time.

3A is going to see a lot of changes. Most notably:

-Boyle, LexCath, Rockcastle, Waggener drop to 3A

-CAL, Bardstown and possibly DeSales move to 3A. CAL and Bardstown are in, w/ DeSales is just depends. They had an avg enrollment of 309 and Bath County was at 311 I believe, wherever they decide to make the cut off will determine that.

-Caldwell County and Union County moveup to 3A

-Thomas Nelson (new school in Nelson County that was 2A this year and will be in 2014 moves to 3A due to being placed in 2A for this past year and the next for not having a senior class during the 12-13 school year)

-South Warren moves to 4A

-Bourbon and Mason County look to be easily 4A based off the enrollment avgs of the last two years.

-Wayne County moves to 4A after Monticello IND shutting its doors before this school year and merging in with Wayne.

-Monroe will easily be 2A and Edmonson County looks to slide into 2A as well.

 

….Franklin-Simpson and/or Breck County look to either be the last ones IN 3A or the first ones in 4A based off their past two averages. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think Breck County is just a student or two under FS, so they would slide in. I think the KHSAA will keep Franklin-Simpson in 4A merely for travel alone, b/c their current district opponents of Warren East and Allen County-Scottsville are still safely within the 4A numbers.

 

It all just depends on how the KHSAA wants to go. If they want 40 in Class 2A and 39 in 3A, 4A, 5A or if they want to split it up some other way.

 

Belfry's boys enrollment decreased by almost 60 from 2012/13 to 13/14.

 

Some other enrollments that shocked me, and most have already been stated are:

-Beechwood staying 1A (to all of the Beechies, welcome back to the state finals every year)

-Fort Knox staying 2A (if there was anybody that I thought was going to drop, it was them, but from the looks of things, they are literally going to be the first ones in 2A)

-LexCath and Boyle dropping to 3A. Shocking to say the least.

 

 

That's about all I can think of off the top of my head.

The KHSAA has posted their 2013/2014 enrollment reports on their website: http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/20132014schoolenrollmenttotalsbyalpha.pdf

 

As discussed before, the KHSAA has typically used the two most recent years available when compiling their alignment. As that will take place sometime between January-May of 2015, that means 12/13 & 13/14 are the two years that would be used, as it was in previous alignments (example - the 2011-2014 alignment was compiled in early 2010 using 08/09 & 09/10 male enrollments).

 

What this means is that with these numbers available, we can now begin projecting with real accuracy what the next alignment will look like. Will there be curveballs? Perhaps, but I'd say outside of the immediate schools on either side of a cutoff, you're going to have a reasonable expectation of what the alignment will be prior to requests to play up.

 

This is my projection of what it will be if it holds to the standards of previous alignments:

 

http://www.warproductionslive.com/2015projectedalignment.pdf

 

 

Great job! The only thing I wish the khsaa would do is have a 2 year adjustment period instead of 4.

Perhaps sometime! I saw this at 3 PM and threw the numbers into what I had before. The districts are likely to be real tough in some areas.

 

My bet is the 5A R1D1 will be larger than that. Two Owensboro schools and Ohio County will make for some tweeners. I've already looked at that and I've got it:

 

5AD1 - Apollo, Christian County, Graves County, Marshall County, Ohio County, Owensboro

5AD2 - Barren County, Bowling Green, Grayson County, Greenwood, Logan County, South Warren

 

Those are all the schools outside of the Louisville area, so it's almost certain they're going to go somewhere in those first two districts.

I was being an idiot and only thinking in terms of 4 teams per district. Most will be but you are probably correct in the additions.

3A is going to see a lot of changes. Most notably:

-Boyle, LexCath, Rockcastle, Waggener drop to 3A

-CAL, Bardstown and possibly DeSales move to 3A. CAL and Bardstown are in, w/ DeSales is just depends. They had an avg enrollment of 309 and Bath County was at 311 I believe, wherever they decide to make the cut off will determine that.

-Caldwell County and Union County moveup to 3A

-Thomas Nelson (new school in Nelson County that was 2A this year and will be in 2014 moves to 3A due to being placed in 2A for this past year and the next for not having a senior class during the 12-13 school year)

-South Warren moves to 4A

-Bourbon and Mason County look to be easily 4A based off the enrollment avgs of the last two years.

-Wayne County moves to 4A after Monticello IND shutting its doors before this school year and merging in with Wayne.

-Monroe will easily be 2A and Edmonson County looks to slide into 2A as well.

 

….Franklin-Simpson and/or Breck County look to either be the last ones IN 3A or the first ones in 4A based off their past two averages. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think Breck County is just a student or two under FS, so they would slide in. I think the KHSAA will keep Franklin-Simpson in 4A merely for travel alone, b/c their current district opponents of Warren East and Allen County-Scottsville are still safely within the 4A numbers.

 

It all just depends on how the KHSAA wants to go. If they want 40 in Class 2A and 39 in 3A, 4A, 5A or if they want to split it up some other way.

 

Belfry's boys enrollment decreased by almost 60 from 2012/13 to 13/14.

 

Some other enrollments that shocked me, and most have already been stated are:

-Beechwood staying 1A (to all of the Beechies, welcome back to the state finals every year)

-Fort Knox staying 2A (if there was anybody that I thought was going to drop, it was them, but from the looks of things, they are literally going to be the first ones in 2A)

-LexCath and Boyle dropping to 3A. Shocking to say the least.

 

 

That's about all I can think of off the top of my head.

 

And Mercer County dropping to 3A also. 3 teams from the 4A Boyle district dropping to 3A. How convenient. Garrard County is already there. Boom. New district.

 

Looked like South Warren would be 5A.

I agree and if Highlands was granted a move up that would pretty much screw any sort of district for 4A in the NKY area and all the remaining schools would have to move up or down probably.

 

Not necessarily. I could see a four team district of Scott, Holmes, Harrison and Pendleton if Pendleton comes back to district play, which they might if Cov Cath and Highlands do move up. of course Pendleton would have to play up, which apparently they did last time.

If Beechwood falls into 1A I would expect them to request a move to 2A. That would still leave a 4 team NKY 1A district and would create a NKY 2A district of 5 teams (NCC,Beechwood, Lloyd, Cov Holy Cross, Newport) and that district has been 5 teams the last 4 years.