Not necessarily. I could see a four team district of Scott, Holmes, Harrison and Pendleton if Pendleton comes back to district play, which they might if Cov Cath and Highlands do move up. of course Pendleton would have to play up, which apparently they did last time.

 

The question is, what reasoning does the KHSAA use to allow Highlands to move up? Since they would geographically have a 4A district to play in, how would the KHSAA justify a move? It looks like Highlands is smack dab in the middle of 4A and CovCath is pretty safely in 5A.

If Beechwood falls into 1A I would expect them to request a move to 2A. That would still leave a 4 team NKY 1A district and would create a NKY 2A district of 5 teams (NCC,Beechwood, Lloyd, Cov Holy Cross, Newport) and that district has been 5 teams the last 4 years.

 

Why would they request to move up to 2A? With Mayfield gone, it looks as if Beechwood will win multiple state titles in 1A and possible zero in 2A with NCC, Mayfield, etc.

First of all, great work on the projections. Very interesting study.

 

Quick question focusing on the bolded. You mentioned that Cooper petitioned to move up last time. If geographic purposes are the only reason that a move up can be granted, why were they moved up? there was a NKY district in both 4A and 5A then as well.

 

I ask simply for clarification purposes, as it seems a lot of teams were noted in your projections as requesting to make moves last time.

 

Cooper's argument was a bit of a hybrid. They were a brand new school, and the two available enrollment years for the alignment were the first two for the school, and thus lower. When Cooper sent their response, it was in the fall of the next school year (10/11), and they included their assessment of their current male enrollment which had risen into 5A levels. They averaged growing 68 students per year in the first few years and projected growth to continue. So basically they argued that they were in fact a 5A school and that the two years that were used - being the first two years of the school which are always lowest - were the only two years that could have possibly placed them into 4A.

 

Additionally, they argued that it would be to the benefit of the 5A class for them to be included as they felt they should for geographic purposes. At the time there were only three NKY schools in the class and if Cooper was moved up as they felt they should be, it would create a complete district that would eliminate travel for another school and where all the schools in that district would be within 25 miles of each other.

 

In short, they said it would create a better geographic district for 5A NKY and they belonged there anyway. The KHSAA agreed.

 

These were the initial responses and requests regarding the first alignment. http://www.khsaa.org/boardofcontrol/agenda/20102011/October/Football%20Responses/Initial%20Responses%20to%20Division%20Into%20Six%20Classes/Initial%20Responses%20and%20Playing%20Up%20Requests%20when%20Class%20Lines%20were%20Drawn.pdf - Cooper's response begins on page 19.

 

If you're interested, these were the second round of responses -http://www.khsaa.org/boardofcontrol/agenda/20102011/October/Football%20Responses/

Edited January 1, 201412 yr by DragonFire

The Belfry/Louisville Central monopoly on the 3A title looks like it might be jeopardy.

4A would lose Lex Cath, Cov Cath, Boyle Co which are arguably Highlands biggest competition. It would add Bourbon Co, Mason Co, WCentral, J.Hardin, Wayne Co, so, I think they'd still be challenged, but, not to the degree those 1st 3 gave them.

If Beechwood falls into 1A I would expect them to request a move to 2A. That would still leave a 4 team NKY 1A district and would create a NKY 2A district of 5 teams (NCC,Beechwood, Lloyd, Cov Holy Cross, Newport) and that district has been 5 teams the last 4 years.

Beechwood is already 1A, why would they "fall" into 1A? I don't see them requesting to move up at all. No reason for it.

Beechwood has no need to move up. They dont play a 1A schedule until district play. Now they can return to the glory of the 90's. As a supporter of a 1A team I dont want them to move. I want them and Mayfield to stay but that is just a dream.

4A would lose Lex Cath, Cov Cath, Boyle Co which are arguably Highlands biggest competition. It would add Bourbon Co, Mason Co, WCentral, J.Hardin, Wayne Co, so, I think they'd still be challenged, but, not to the degree those 1st 3 gave them.

 

You never know though. Highlands will have Weinrich as coach and there is no guarantee he will emulate Dale Mueller's results.

Beechwood has no need to move up. They dont play a 1A schedule until district play. Now they can return to the glory of the 90's. As a supporter of a 1A team I dont want them to move. I want them and Mayfield to stay but that is just a dream.

 

I believe Beechwood may come to the conclusion that competing in the 2A NKY district would heighten fan interest and player participation and be overall better for their program. Their school is growing with the remodel so they may end up in 2A anyway when the final numbers come in, but I just get the feeling they would rather compete in 2A than remain in the 1A NKY district and with whatever teams are left in 1A statewide.

I believe Beechwood may come to the conclusion that competing in the 2A NKY district would heighten fan interest and player participation and be overall better for their program. Their school is growing with the remodel so they may end up in 2A anyway when the final numbers come in, but I just get the feeling they would rather compete in 2A than remain in the 1A NKY district and with whatever teams are left in 1A statewide.

 

Makes sense. 2A would be a ton of fun to watch.

Makes sense. 2A would be a ton of fun to watch.

 

With the stats they have in front of them. Would someone be able to try and figure out district alignments. Who will be in what district and so forth?

Thanks DF, off the hook awesome!!!

I believe Beechwood may come to the conclusion that competing in the 2A NKY district would heighten fan interest and player participation and be overall better for their program. Their school is growing with the remodel so they may end up in 2A anyway when the final numbers come in, but I just get the feeling they would rather compete in 2A than remain in the 1A NKY district and with whatever teams are left in 1A statewide.

I don't see moving to 2A as improving fan interst or participation. Maybe it's just me, but Beechwood has had no problem getting fan interest in the community or player participation.

And Mercer County dropping to 3A also. 3 teams from the 4A Boyle district dropping to 3A. How convenient. Garrard County is already there. Boom. New district.

 

Looked like South Warren would be 5A.

 

That's what I thought, too, but SW looks to be on the 4A/5A fence. Mercer will still stay 4A, though. They are above that 418/419 cut off.

 

Franklin - Simpson and Breck Co look to be either the last ones in 3A or the 1st ones in 4A. I've figured up almost all of the 2 yr avg enrollments. I don't have in front, but I will later and I'll post.

With the stats they have in front of them. Would someone be able to try and figure out district alignments. Who will be in what district and so forth?

 

I have them figured out. I'll try to post and put together after the Rose Bowl.