The KHSAA has posted their 2013/2014 enrollment reports on their website: http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/20132014schoolenrollmenttotalsbyalpha.pdf

 

As discussed before, the KHSAA has typically used the two most recent years available when compiling their alignment. As that will take place sometime between January-May of 2015, that means 12/13 & 13/14 are the two years that would be used, as it was in previous alignments (example - the 2011-2014 alignment was compiled in early 2010 using 08/09 & 09/10 male enrollments).

 

What this means is that with these numbers available, we can now begin projecting with real accuracy what the next alignment will look like. Will there be curveballs? Perhaps, but I'd say outside of the immediate schools on either side of a cutoff, you're going to have a reasonable expectation of what the alignment will be prior to requests to play up.

 

This is my projection of what it will be if it holds to the standards of previous alignments:

 

http://www.warproductionslive.com/2015projectedalignment.pdf

You going to project the district alignments for us?

 

My guess for Region 1, District 1

 

1A: Fulton City, Fulton County, Russellville, Crittenden County

2A: Mayfield, Murray, Ballard Memorial, Todd County Central

3A: Caldwell County, Trigg County, Paducah Tilghman, Fort Campbell

4A: Calloway County, Hopkinsville, Hopkins County Central, Madisonville North Hopkins

5A: Graves County, Marshall County, Christian County, Logan County

6A: Henderson County, McCracken County, Daviess County, Muhlenberg County

Edited December 31, 201312 yr by bugatti

You going to project the district alignments for us?

 

My guess for Region 1, District 1

 

1A: Fulton City, Fulton County, Russellville, Crittenden County

2A: Mayfield, Murray, Ballard Memorial, Todd County Central

3A: Caldwell County, Trigg County, Paducah Tilghman, Fort Campbell

4A: Calloway County, Hopkinsville, Hopkins County Central, Madisonville North Hopkins

5A: Graves County, Marshall County, Christian County, Logan County

6A: Henderson County, McCracken County, Daviess County, Muhlenberg County

 

Perhaps sometime! I saw this at 3 PM and threw the numbers into what I had before. The districts are likely to be real tough in some areas.

 

My bet is the 5A R1D1 will be larger than that. Two Owensboro schools and Ohio County will make for some tweeners. I've already looked at that and I've got it:

 

5AD1 - Apollo, Christian County, Graves County, Marshall County, Ohio County, Owensboro

5AD2 - Barren County, Bowling Green, Grayson County, Greenwood, Logan County, South Warren

 

Those are all the schools outside of the Louisville area, so it's almost certain they're going to go somewhere in those first two districts.

Here's a model if it was an alignment based on 4 year enrollments:

 

http://www.warproductionslive.com/2015projectedalignment4yr.pdf

That is some good work by DragonFire.:thumb:

The KHSAA has posted their 2013/2014 enrollment reports on their website: http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/20132014schoolenrollmenttotalsbyalpha.pdf

 

As discussed before, the KHSAA has typically used the two most recent years available when compiling their alignment. As that will take place sometime between January-May of 2015, that means 12/13 & 13/14 are the two years that would be used, as it was in previous alignments (example - the 2011-2014 alignment was compiled in early 2010 using 08/09 & 09/10 male enrollments).

 

What this means is that with these numbers available, we can now begin projecting with real accuracy what the next alignment will look like. Will there be curveballs? Perhaps, but I'd say outside of the immediate schools on either side of a cutoff, you're going to have a reasonable expectation of what the alignment will be prior to requests to play up.

 

This is my projection of what it will be if it holds to the standards of previous alignments:

 

http://www.warproductionslive.com/2015projectedalignment.pdf

Did you put the projections together? If so that is a great job, thanks for the info!

Nice work. I was a bit confused with Cooper you had listed as designated for 4A but request to play up at 5A. Their numbers are 5a numbers. Why would they be designated for 4A?

DragonFire is da man. Pure and simple.

Nice work. I was a bit confused with Cooper you had listed as designated for 4A but request to play up at 5A. Their numbers are 5a numbers. Why would they be designated for 4A?

 

It was a note on the previous alignment. All of those were requests made in the prior one. Cooper was placed in 4A but petitioned to be included in 5A because their enrollment was really going to be there, and clearly that has borne out. The cynic in me says it was really to get away from Highlands.

Did you put the projections together? If so that is a great job, thanks for the info!

 

Thank you, yes, those are mine. I've had a spreadsheet with the three prior years in it just waiting to plug in the new numbers for the current year for a 2 yr or 4 yr model. If I'm feeling bold I may take a crack at the districts, but some of them will be pretty sideways. For instance, if they use a 4 year model, the only teams in 4A west will be Calloway County and Hopkins County Central. You might see teams like Allen County-Scottsville and Franklin-Simpson shipped west, or else those two might request to play up to 5A and then you'll have Bowling Green schools in District 1.

It was a note on the previous alignment. All of those were requests made in the prior one. Cooper was placed in 4A but petitioned to be included in 5A because their enrollment was really going to be there, and clearly that has borne out. The cynic in me says it was really to get away from Highlands.

Highlands petitioned khsaa to move Cooper to 5A because they didn't want any part of Cooper

Thank you, yes, those are mine. I've had a spreadsheet with the three prior years in it just waiting to plug in the new numbers for the current year for a 2 yr or 4 yr model. If I'm feeling bold I may take a crack at the districts, but some of them will be pretty sideways. For instance, if they use a 4 year model, the only teams in 4A west will be Calloway County and Hopkins County Central. You might see teams like Allen County-Scottsville and Franklin-Simpson shipped west, or else those two might request to play up to 5A and then you'll have Bowling Green schools in District 1.

 

NKY 5A could be interesting, if they use the two year enrollment numbers. Looking at the numbers Conner, Cooper, CovCath, South Oldham, and Grant County could be one district but, if a team moves up to 6A that could put Boone County in 5A. That might lead to a Boone, Conner, Cooper, CovCath, and Grant County district.

 

What is used the 2 or 4 year enrollment numbers?

I like Cov Cath moving up to 5A. That district will rival 6A in Louisville in competiveness IMO.

I like Cov Cath moving up to 5A. That district will rival 6A in Louisville in competiveness IMO.

Will Highlands request to move up with them?

Will Pendleton County return to playing a full membership schedule or will they still play as an independent and not qualify for the playoffs?