FiveThirtyEight's Silver vs. MSNBC's Joe Scarborough

[Habib]

Not saying this guy is right or wrong, but put predicting who wins which state is up there with Joe Lunardi predicting who makes the NCAA tournament pool. We can name 45 of them right now. In 2008 there were about 3 or 4 question marks in the electoral college map.

 

To be fair he's not offering a prediction but a probability of a particular outcome. If you are dealt pocket aces in hold 'em poker your probability of winning is high, but that doesn't mean you're going to win the hand.

[Randy Parker]

Just started with ads. Haven't heard their reasoning. Maybe they see some sort of shift in internal polling.

 

FiveThirtyEight has PA as 96% chance for the President.

 

Pennsylvania is always labeled a toss up by the talking heads & it never goes Red. I know states like that occasionally surprise us (see Indiana in 2008), but I am more than confident that PA stays with the Dems.

[SSC]

I was under the impression that Romney wasn't putting many resources in PA? Was I wrong or did something change?

 

Romney's heading to Pennsylvania as GOP drops millions on ads

[Randy Parker]

Romney's heading to Pennsylvania as GOP drops millions on ads

 

Thanks. :thumb:

[Clyde]

According to an article I posted in another thread last week, those who are undecided come election time tend to break towards the challenger (when there is an incumbent running) at a clip of around 80%.

 

When is the last time this pushed the challenge ahead of the POTUS?

 

In 2004 Sen Kerry was down by 2.4% a week before the election. He lost by 2.4% .

 

This "incumbent" rule was looked into in 2006. The results do not show it to be factual as a rule.

 

Pollster.com - Political Surveys and Election Polls, Trends, Charts and Analysis

[UKMustangFan]

When is the last time this pushed the challenge ahead of the POTUS?

 

In 2004 Sen Kerry was down by 2.4% a week before the election. He lost by 2.4% .

 

This "incumbent" rule was looked into in 2006. The results do not show it to be factual as a rule.

 

Pollster.com - Political Surveys and Election Polls, Trends, Charts and Analysis

 

The link I posted in the other thread had statistical data to support the claim.

[Clyde]

The link I posted in the other thread had statistical data to support the claim.

 

If you get a chance post it again. I've looked for it in about 3 or 4 threads.

[UKMustangFan]

If you get a chance post it again. I've looked for it in about 3 or 4 threads.

 

If I find it again I will....Don't remember what thread I put it in, but I can't locate it now. I do remember it was dated.

[Lucky Charms]

If I find it again I will....Don't remember what thread I put it in, but I can't locate it now. I do remember it was dated.

 

Was it this?

Incumbent Rule

[Flotsam]

Not saying this guy is right or wrong, but put predicting who wins which state is up there with Joe Lunardi predicting who makes the NCAA tournament pool. We can name 45 of them right now. In 2008 there were about 3 or 4 question marks in the electoral college map.

 

In 2008 (like this year) there were 8 or 9 battleground states.

 

If a pollster goes 8 of 9 predicting the winner of Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada....:notworthy: :notworthy:

[Lucky Charms]

In 2008 (like this year) there were 8 or 9 battleground states.

 

If a pollster goes 8 of 9 predicting the winner of Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada....:notworthy: :notworthy:

 

Missouri, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina & Ohio...that's not 8 or 9.

The Electoral Map: Key States - Election Guide 2008 - The New York Times

[Lucky Charms]

And I think you pretty much could apply the "incumbent rule" to McCain since Obama did such a GREAT job of making McCain look very much like Bush. That and Obama attacted a lot of independents with the way he ran a VERY well organized campaign in 2008.

[Lucky Charms]

And I think you pretty much could apply the "incumbent rule" to McCain since Obama did such a GREAT job of making McCain look very much like Bush. That and Obama attacted a lot of independents with the way he ran a VERY well organized campaign in 2008.

 

ATTRACTED