November 1, 201213 yr As of today here is how Silver forecasts the chances of winning the "swing states:" NH Obama 75% VA Obama 63% NC Romney 80% FL Romney 59% OH Obama 80% WI Obama 88% IA Obama 78% CO Obama 63% NV Obama 85% Based on that he projecets the electoral votes at 300 - 237 in favor of the President. Note: This has been trending upwards since 10.13.12.
November 1, 201213 yr As of today here is how Silver forecasts the chances of winning the "swing states:" NH Obama 75% VA Obama 63% NC Romney 80% FL Romney 59% OH Obama 80% WI Obama 88% IA Obama 78% CO Obama 63% NV Obama 85% Based on that he projecets the electoral votes at 300 - 237 in favor of the President. Note: This has been trending upwards since 10.13.12. I agree with what you said earlier. I think some Silver critics, not the ones on here, but elsewhere just don't know what he's saying. He's essentially saying Obama has an 80% chance to carry Ohio. If he carries Ohio he wins the election. Where the critics are right though is if he's totally wrong and didn't properly attribute the D's not coming out to vote he will be a nobody from here out. You can't be wrong as bad as he might be, with as many people calling you an idiot and survive that going forward.
November 2, 201213 yr I do not know how he has factored in the turnout or if he even uses that. However, you've hit upon the reason for the disparity in polls. R polls are using a bet that it will not be near the turnout as in 2008. D polls are using a similar number as 2008. That's the big question. I would expect he does since it is one of the more critical aspects. The party that has the most enthusiasm and gets it's voters out gets a major boost so I would think it would be a factor he's putting in. Particularly if he's willing to bet $1,000 on it.
November 2, 201213 yr I would expect he does since it is one of the more critical aspects. The party that has the most enthusiasm and gets it's voters out gets a major boost so I would think it would be a factor he's putting in. Particularly if he's willing to bet $1,000 on it. My question would be is it already factored in through the other polls?
November 2, 201213 yr Silver correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 states in 2008. (The only one he missed was Indiana. Silver predicted McCain. Obama carried Indiana by 1%). He correctly predicted the winner of every 2008 U.S. Senate race. He is not a cheerleeder or a shill. I saw an interview with Nancy Pelosi where she was giving Silver grief for his prediction that the Republicans would maintain a majority in the House of Representative in 2012.
November 2, 201213 yr I would expect he does since it is one of the more critical aspects. The party that has the most enthusiasm and gets it's voters out gets a major boost so I would think it would be a factor he's putting in. Particularly if he's willing to bet $1,000 on it. My question would be is it already factored in through the other polls? It's the "likely voter" polls.
November 2, 201213 yr As of today here is how Silver forecasts the chances of winning the "swing states:" NH Obama 75% VA Obama 63% NC Romney 80% FL Romney 59% OH Obama 80% WI Obama 88% IA Obama 78% CO Obama 63% NV Obama 85% Based on that he projecets the electoral votes at 300 - 237 in favor of the President. Note: This has been trending upwards since 10.13.12. I'm not by any means an expert. What little I've been hearing leads me to believe that Mr. Romney has a better than 50-50 chance of taking Virginia; with the rest of the above holding true.
November 2, 201213 yr As of today here is how Silver forecasts the chances of winning the "swing states:" NH Obama 75% VA Obama 63% NC Romney 80% FL Romney 59% OH Obama 80% WI Obama 88% IA Obama 78% CO Obama 63% NV Obama 85% Based on that he projecets the electoral votes at 300 - 237 in favor of the President. Note: This has been trending upwards since 10.13.12. His calculations look pretty close to what I am thinking. Virginia and Colorado are the two states of which I am most uncertain.
November 2, 201213 yr Silver correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 states in 2008. (The only one he missed was Indiana. Silver predicted McCain. Obama carried Indiana by 1%). He correctly predicted the winner of every 2008 U.S. Senate race. He is not a cheerleeder or a shill. I saw an interview with Nancy Pelosi where she was giving Silver grief for his prediction that the Republicans would maintain a majority in the House of Representative in 2012. Did he then predict the sun would come up tomorrow?
November 2, 201213 yr Silver correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 states in 2008. (The only one he missed was Indiana. Silver predicted McCain. Obama carried Indiana by 1%). He correctly predicted the winner of every 2008 U.S. Senate race. He is not a cheerleeder or a shill. I saw an interview with Nancy Pelosi where she was giving Silver grief for his prediction that the Republicans would maintain a majority in the House of Representative in 2012. Not saying this guy is right or wrong, but put predicting who wins which state is up there with Joe Lunardi predicting who makes the NCAA tournament pool. We can name 45 of them right now. In 2008 there were about 3 or 4 question marks in the electoral college map.
November 2, 201213 yr ^I'd agree. I see 6 states that are true toss-ups. NH, IA, CO, VA, OH, WI. Of those, I believe CO and VA will both break Gov. Romney's way and have no real idea what will happen in the other four.
November 2, 201213 yr Why is Romney putting any effort into Pennsylvania if he has no chance to win there? Either Silver is really wrong or the Romney camp is really wrong.
November 2, 201213 yr Why is Romney putting any effort into Pennsylvania if he has no chance to win there? Either Silver is really wrong or the Romney camp is really wrong. I was under the impression that Romney wasn't putting many resources in PA? Was I wrong or did something change?
November 2, 201213 yr I was under the impression that Romney wasn't putting many resources in PA? Was I wrong or did something change? Just started with ads. Haven't heard their reasoning. Maybe they see some sort of shift in internal polling. It could also be a ploy to get the President to spend money in PA to offset the Gov which means that money isn't spent in key states. FiveThirtyEight has PA as 96% chance for the President.
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